New turn or U-Turn? Is the flurry of political releases indicative of the government's backtracking on its original mission, or has it adopted a new strategy for its original goal? A PROBE report The country's political scene, if not in a limbo, is perched on an uncomfortable state of uncertainty; no one seems to know where the country is heading towards. With the en masse release of politicians accused of corruption, a fresh set of questions has arisen in the national psyche. Which way is the nation heading? Has the government backtracked on its mission of reforms and war on corruption? Or has it adopted a subtle strategy, momentarily appeasing the political parties while continuing towards its original goal? Analysts seem to think the latter and are keeping their fingers crossed.. Tables turning for AL and BNP? All through the tenure of the present caretaker government, there had been a tangible tilt towards Awami League. That was public perception. But BNP being the immediate past government, naturally bore the brunt of the clampdown against corruption and so any apparent bias towards Awami League was given the benefit of doubt. After all, if Begum Khaleda Zia was behind bars, so was Sheikh Hasina. While the number of arrested Awami Leaguers was less than those of BNP, this too was accepted and it was assumed that they would catch up as the anti-corruption drive continued. However, when Hasina was released purportedly on medical grounds, the murmur of questions became more than audible. Here was Hasina gallivanting around the globe, spending token time at the doctor's, while most of the time attending weddings, holding meetings, visiting relatives et al. Speculations of a secret deal with the government gained credibility. And then came the city corporation elections. BNP boycotted and the Awami League-backed candidates, even in jail, clinched most of the mayoral posts. If the councillors were to a larger number of the BNP ilk, that was glossed over effectively and Awami League had begun to taste triumph. A fresh confidence entered their step and it looked like the stage was set for their winning the national election scheduled for December. They responded with smugness to accusations of an understanding with the government. They were all set to take the seat of power once more. In fact, Awami League presidium member Amir Hossain Amu even remarked, "BNP will be in a movement, but we will be in power." So, is it back to Square One? That is a question that certainly is worrying the people. Although it was through court orders that most leaders came out, Again and again the mission of the caretaker government is being questioned. A creeping sense of disillusionment has entered the scene and confusion prevails. Is the Spirit of 1/11 on a decline? Broken bravado Awami League's bravado, however, hasn't lasted long. While their leader was busy globetrotting, Begum Zia sat back in her sub-jail, capitalising on her image as the uncompromising leader. She refused to come to any understanding with the government, refused any conditional release. Her flagging party was looking to her for leadership, while the apparently united Awami League struggled with internal conflicts of its own. On top of all that, images of a sickly Tareque Rahman in the media evoked more than a degree of sympathy. There were subtle changes in the shifting political jigsaw. And then came Tareque's release followed by that of Begum Khaleda Zia. The government by allowing Hasina to come out of jail through executive order prored. Its leniency for one party alone. Befuddled leaders of Awami League have begun to lose their bravado; confidence has fast faded. In fact, a joke has begun making rounds about the tailors ringing up Awami League leaders, asking why they aren't taking delivery of the Mujib coats they had all suddenly ordered. Perhaps the seat of power doesn't seem all that close and easy anymore. Tareque's release also released a stream of vitriol from the Awami camp, with utterances such as the "great thief has been released" and so on. Acting President of the party, Zillur Rahman, however, displayed a degree of dignity that perhaps comes with his age, when he hailed the release of BNP Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia. Politics pundits read deeper meaning into the vindictiveness against Tareque Rahman. Here was a set of senior Awami League leaders who, right from the start, had opposed Tareque's leadership. Was it just because he was proving to be an able leader, shoring up BNP support at the grassroots? Says a political analyst: "Awami League's onslaught against Tareque has a distinct reason -- a fear of such dynastic politics seeping into their own party. The senior leaders none too happy at the reception accorded to Sheikh Hasina's son Joy when he came to Bangladesh in 1995 and they don't want him in their midst. They don't want their own leadership challenged by any dynastic claims to power." They apparently are all against any counterpart of Tareque in their own party. Government plans and policy If anyone seeks clarity in what the government is up to, they just have to turn to the upazila election. That is one point where the government is remaining steadfast -- the other areas remain somewhat grey. This is very significant. Holding the upazila election first, before the national election, is very critical in the sense that this is a solid power base. Understanding this full well, political parties are clamouring for the national election to be held before the upazila polls, but their demands in this regard are falling on deaf ears. The government, through the Election Commission, has reeled off certain policies and principles. Participation in the election is conditional to these rules. There is the People's Representative Order, party registration and other criteria to which the political parties and leaders must adhere. Certain quarters say that there should be no problem if the government announces the upazila election and then the national election schedule in quick succession. But then the political parties are also demanding a removal of emergency as essential for the elections and election campaigning.. Here again the government may offer a very relaxed emergency where even public meetings can be held. The political parties, no doubt, will not want to fall into this "trap" and will refuse to accept these conditions. So, far from a U Turn, things may come to a dead stop. But such a dead end is likely to be a façade for a new turn in events. Meanwhile, the calm that had settled over the nation over the past year, is being punctured by hints of agitation. There is workers' unrest brewing in the readymade garment sector, ready to erupt at any moment. Sporadic outbursts from the political front are not unexpected. At such a juncture, the people look forward to some sort of leadership to guide them out of the wilderness. For sometime it looked like that the Army Chief may have been that beacon and even now some pundits predict his presidency. He has, of course, repeatedly refuted any political aspirations and perhaps the people are looking beyond the present set-up. After all, the goods they expected haven't been delivered. The question is, will the election be held in December? Politicians will demand a right to contest in the election, cases and convictions be damned. With political leaders being released, an election would mean either Hasina in the seat of power and Khaleda in opposition or vice versa. That would be back to Square One. Not only that, with no palpable "exit formula" in sight, the present caretakers would no doubt be target of vengeance. Would they risk that? If the powers-that-be succumb to pressure, or maybe carry on according to the actual plan, and the elections are not held in December, in all likelihood the caretaker government of Fakhruddin Ahmed may bid farewell. Why should they tarnish their reputation after burning all that night oil in keeping the nation on track, on the Road Map? Analysts ask, will a new face emerge on the scene, an internationally accepted personality such as Prof. Yunus? He may have had a volte-face where politics are concerned, but then again, he may rise like the proverbial Phoenix, answering to the need of the hour. This is, of course, all conjecture. As another day passes and another prisoner is released, the political Pandora's box reveals yet another set of probabilities. It is the upazila election that is the turning point. Things are likely to gain clarity after October-November. Much depends on the outcome of court cases, on whether the political parties will acquiesce to the rules, whether the emergency will remain intact and so on. In the meantime, the government is hell-bent on the upazila election in October, other priorities seeming to be kept aside for the moment. This is a vital turning point in the scheme of things. While skeptics see this turning point as a U Turn, the pundits predict a new turn towards a fulfillment of original goals. |
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