Full term or not?
Economic concerns, political unrest and other factors have prompted people to wonder if this government will manage to take it to the end, or end before the term
A PROBE report
When Awami League came to power on a landslide victory, running the country seemed to be a cakewalk. After all, they had an absolute majority in parliament, their main opponent BNP was in shambles and all was hunky-dory. But after the honeymoon was over, things suddenly didn't seem quite so rosy anymore. And now, as the government crosses half its term at the helm, things seem to be falling apart. The economy is in shambles, law and order is deteriorating, the political arena has become precariously confrontational and a general sense of apprehension prevails. Will the government be able to continue on till the end of its term? Or will it have to beat an early exit? These questions have been making the rounds in political and public circuits.
The AL crisis
Whether the government lasts till the end or not, all depends on how well Awami League deals with the crises that loom large in its face. And the crises are many.
There is the economic crisis, with the government borrowing from the banking system like there is no tomorrow. And with the labour market in the Middle East impacted hard by the unrest in the region, remittances from abroad have taken a downward slump. Inflation is at an all-time high. Reserves are depleting to an all-time low, much of it being channeled to the rental power stations. The share market is more bear than bull. These are all ingredients for disaster.
The government, of course, is mustering all its wiles and wits for effective damage control. It is moving in various directions to stabilise the economy. Sources say international credit is in the pipeline, likely to be released shortly. Remittances normally take an upward turn at the year beginning, so it is looking for some improvement in that sector. Fresh avenues of employment are opening up, such as the labour markets in Libya and other countries recovering from the "Arab Spring". Even if the government's initiatives in this regard are lacking, the people to people contact is strong and already labour from Bangladesh has started streaming to South Africa and newer horizons. All these and other measures may help the government reach a comfort zone by March or April. At least, those who see the glass half full hope so.
However, economy is not only one of the woes inflicted on the country. There is the general managerial weakness that clutches the government. This affects good governance, security, project implementation, law and order and all other sector vital to a nation's steady development and general well-being. The people are shedding their general complacence at the state of affairs. With muggings, murder and abductions becoming every day affairs, a sense of insecurity grows by the day. State-sponsored hooliganism has become a harsh reality. Also, development partners are unhappy with the progress of projects, disjointed coordination and the ennui in the administration.
If Awami League used charges of corruption against the former government to elbow its way in to power, it is now itself being accused of corruption, even on a higher scale. The Padma Bridge fiasco indicates this has now been caught on the international radar as well.
The treatment of personalities like Dr. Yunus, dissension within civil society which had previously aligned itself with Awami League, dissatisfaction in the NGO sector over government, all of this is taking toll on the government. International personalities like US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are, apparently, not amused.
Then there is also the growing distance between the government and its own political party. Voices of dissent became quite audible within Awami League.
The government is aware of all these rather large chinks in its armour which has not only been its own undoing, but also been a boost to the opposition camp, adding fuel to their fire, fodder to their anti-government movement. Here too the government has set out to control the damage. It has appointed district administrators to all 64 districts, persons of the party ilk, in a move to regain the centres hold on the grassroots. It has made additions to the cabinet, including the rabble rousers like Suranjit Senguta, silencing their voices of dissent with cushy cabinet chairs.
The opposition
It is quite commonly heard in the drawing rooms discussions and the tea stall addas that the government has handed over a medley of issues to the opposition. It hasn't been too hard for the opposition to find issues that can mobilise public opinion against the government. In addition to the above issues, there is the anti-Indian trump card. The Teesta and Tipaimukh issues, along with transit, trade and border killings, have been effective tools for BNP to portray the government in a negative light, as subservient B-Team of India. This is one area where the government has not been able to whitewash over.
However, for BNP and Jamaat-e-Islam, the only tangible opposition, time is of essence. They are hard pressed for time and a delay in their action will send them into political oblivion for a long time to come, analysts feel.
The government is a wily political player and has played its game against the opposition well. With the war crimes trial, it has managed to corner Jamaat-e-Islami. All of Jamaat's top and influential leaders are behind bars and the leaders in the open have no clout whatsoever. Then there are the cases against BNP Chairperson and former Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia as well as against her son Tarique Rahman, who has been key to BNP's organisational strength and garnering support for the party among the emerging generation of voters. All this has weakened the formidable BNP-Jamaat alliance.
The government is planning to bring all these cases to head within the next three or four months and so that is exactly the amount of time the opposition has to strengthen its hand and rally an effective movement against the government. Time is a key factor here and BNP is hard pressed for time. If it fails to face up effectively to the government's onslaught, Khaleda Zia will be interned, Tarique convicted and the party put out of joint.
With the Zia family out of the scene, it will be difficult for BNP to do literally anything.
BNP had many opportunities to rev up its anti-government movement. The stock market crash has ignited people's ire as was evident from the violent outburst on the streets. BNP failed to use that politically. The economy, law and order, power crisis, and more, all had been handed to them on a platter, but BNP had been biding its time. They were waiting to come nearer to the election before showing their hand.
The fact that Begum Zia can effectively rally public support is obvious. Millions of supporters thronged the road marches she had led to demonstrate against India's plans for the Tipaimukh dam. The government was taken aback at the massive support. Even the government agencies had reportedly predicted a lukewarm response to Khaleda Zia's call, but were completely shocked at the turnout. But whether BNP has been able to hold on to that tempo and keep it alive, is another matter. They had been hoping to get the ball firmly in their caurt nearer to the national election, but will they be able to last that long on the political playing ground?
Political analysts say that BNP was popular enough, but not focused enough. Awami League played its cards well. Every time an issue was raised, it would bring another to the forefront to divert public attention away from the problem, in the Manmohan-Messi style, where some muse that the Argentine football star was brought it at that time to diffuse attention from the visit of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Sigh and his failure to sign the Teesta deal.
BNP's strategy has been to react to Awami League's actions, where it would have been more effective the other way round. The opposition should have been showing action, to which the government would react.
If BNP wants to take its movement to the next level, it will have to show something, and show something fast. In its haste, if it slips up, this could spell disaster for BNP.
BNP, of course, is not a naive party and has been working both overtly and behind the scenes to bolster local and outside support. Begum Zia has had busy schedules in her trips to the US and UK, reestablishing rapport. She has been working on her party's good relations with China to the East and the Arab world to the West.
The appearance of an FBI official as a witness in the case against Tarique Rahman may be seen as a hiccup in BNP's US relations. But the US has made it obvious that they do not approve of Tarique, or at least with the image that his been projected of him. BNP has also been tarred with a black brush regarding alleged links with militants, involvement in the ten-trucks-of-arms case and the Western world is not comfortable with these issues.
BNP's international diplomacy is fraught with problems. Traditional friends on the international circuit, such as Saudi Arabia, have their plates full with their own problems. The "Arab Spring" is taking its toll and the governments of the Middle East are busy consolidating their own respective rules. Problems of their allies in countries like Bangladesh can hardly be on their priority list.
As for the China card, BNP's pro-China leaders were Mannan Bhuiyan and Khandakar Delwar Hossain, both whom have passed away. It is taking time for that vacuum to be filled. General Mahbub (retd) has strong Chinese connections, but as a reformist, his bonds with begum Zia are not strong. He himself does not appear to be overly enthusiastic about playing an effective role in bolstering the party's strength.
The public
In this state of affairs, the public at the moment is not pleased with the way things are going. No matter how well the government may thwart its political opposition, the people cannot be quelled when they are burning holes in their pockets just for mere survival. Prices of essentials have put the cost of living out of reach for the common man. Insecurity on the streets, anti-Indian sentiments, the share market, repressive government policies — all these factors have been more effective in turning the people away from the government than any political movement.
However, analysts point out that the middle class which is directly effected by the share market crash, inflation and other such issues, are not the ones who initiative mass movements. The farmers in the field with no fixed wages are still complacent. In the volatile industrial belt, the workers have been pacified with increased wages and promises of further increases in the near future.
How things stand
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina still is very much in the Indian good books. She has been a plus point for their northeast security concerns. She has successfully routed out northeast Indian insurgent camps in Bangladesh. She is handing over transit with ease and has no conflict with India. At the same time, she is trying to keep things balanced with overtures towards China. There are promises of the deep sea port contract for China and recently Bangladesh has also purchased large consignments of arms from China. However, it is also true that Hasina will not go to that fat an extent with China that will give India cause for discomfort. India is keeping a watchful eye on Hasina in this regard. It will not approve of any major tilt towards China and Hasina is aware of the fact that there are no permanent friends in the business of regional politics.
Hasina, analysts stay, is determined to remain in power till she managed to eliminate the Zia family from the political scene. If the trial of her father's killers and the war criminals were her overt agenda, the removal of the Zia family from politics has been her covert commitment, they contend.
Full term, or not?
Will the government manage to stay in power for its full term? It looks for the time being at least, it will continue on this rocky road, but as the election nears, the scenario is bound to change. It is not likely that the government's damage control efforts will be as effective as it hopes, particularly where the economy is concerned. So before the election, one may see some drastic changes.
Third force
The rebellious Anna Hazare of India has been an inspiration for the civil society here. Many citizens' forums have been sprouting up with purportedly political agenda. There has been Mahi Chowdhury's Blue Band, Manna's Citizen's Forum, Shahida Obaid's platform and more. The names of leading NGO personalities, like BRAC's FH Abed, have also been heard on the grapevine, as possible choices for an interim government.
The factors which keep popping up from time to time is that, will BNP be able to keep up its steam and stamina, and re-merge like the proverbial phoenix, will Awami League stay another term or, most significantly, will their be an emergence of a third force?
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