[vinnomot] Musharraf's Endgame?

SAN-Feature Service

SOUTH ASIAN NEWS-FEATURE SERVICE

November 21, 2007

 

Musharraf's Endgame?

By Irfan Husain

 

As Pakistan's political crisis rumbles on, it is instructive to examine the motives and options of the three major actors whose actions are shaping events today.

 

SAN-Feature Service : As Pakistan's political crisis rumbles on, it is instructive to examine the motives and options of the three major actors whose actions are shaping events today. Bush, Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto all are engaged in a series of moves that will influence the future of this turbulent country and the volatile region in which it is situated.

 

Starting with George W. Bush—whatever his many faults, nobody has ever accused him of disloyalty. If anything, the U.S president has a tendency to stand by his friends and colleagues long after their usefulness has ended. And ever since Musharraf's famous post-9/11 U-turn, he has come to be regarded as 'America's good friend and steadfast ally.'

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Thus, despite calls from across the American political spectrum to dump the Pakistani strongman, Bush has responded with little more than a mild rap on the knuckles. And when Musharraf held out the sop of elections in early January, Bush grasped this announcement with relief, forgetting that his favourite Pakistani had given no date for the lifting of the emergency, or the release of the thousands of political opponents scooped up over the last fortnight.

 

The likely scenario, as seen from Washington, is an ongoing political crisis that might well paralyse Pakistani efforts to control the tribal areas on the Afghan border. This will lead to more cross-border attacks on NATO and U.S. forces in Afghanistan, causing a higher casualty rate.

 

However, with a Pakistani nuclear arsenal to worry about, the Pentagon and the neocons are unlikely to fret too much about the loss of civil liberties. For them, the first priority is to ensure that the Pakistan army remains the custodian of nuclear technology and materials. And even though elections are due next year, presidential hopefuls cannot afford to seem weak, and so will not increase the pressure on Bush to rein in his buddy in Islamabad.

 

But this scenario could well change if Musharraf is unable to convince the opposition parties to accept his timetable and his approach to the elections. Then, protests would continue. Already, many parties have threatened to boycott the elections in case the state of emergency is not lifted. Should this happen, and the election results are rejected by the opposition and the people, Bush would have to do more than issue such mild admonitions.

 

However, the options before him are limited. Currently, most of the $10 billion in American aid that has gone to Pakistan since 9/11 has vanished into the military's coffers. If this assistance is cut off, Musharraf could retaliate by pulling out the 100,000 soldiers on the Afghan border. And if the Taliban resistance is fierce now, it would only escalate in future. So loyalty apart, Bush has few good options in Pakistan.

 

Musharraf's gamble

 

Musharraf, who has painted himself into a corner, is desperately seeking a way out. His seemingly terminal slide began last March when he tried to sack the stubborn and independent Supreme Court chief justice, Iftikhar Chaudhry. Lawyers and the media spearheaded a mass movement to get him reinstated, and when they succeeded, Musharraf's unpopularity and vulnerability became evident for the first time in his eight-year rule.

 

With his re-election challenged in the Supreme Court, there was real apprehension that the 11-member bench would rule him ineligible to contest due to his position as army chief. To pre-empt such a devastating judgment, Musharraf imposed a state of emergency that curbed the media, and judges were directed to take a fresh oath under a Provisional Constitutional Order. Those like Iftikhar Chaudhry who refused were removed from the bench; several of them are under house arrest. Through this expedient, Musharraf has now got a higher judiciary stacked with yes-men, but lawyers and political opponents have vowed that they will not allow this ploy to succeed.

 

Thus, Pakistan's political crisis will rumble on, causing massive economic dislocation. Already, the Karachi stock exchange has seen the flight of a quarter billion dollars of foreign equity; Standard and Poor, as well as Moody's, have downgraded Pakistan's credit rating; and export orders are being cancelled by overseas buyers who fear that the ongoing turmoil will cause delays. The business community, thus far Musharraf's biggest supporter, is now being forced to re-assess their position.

 

The Pakistani general, like Bush, has few good options. By cracking down brutally on centrist, secular parties as well as lawyers and the media, he has alienated a large slice of the educated, urban elites. These are the very people he needs to have on his side if he is to make any headway against Islamic extremists.

 

For a general, Musharraf has opened too many fronts. He is already under Western pressure to restore democracy, while at the same time he is expected to do more in the fight against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Meanwhile, Pakistani militants are on the march in Swat, Pakistan's most scenic valley. Here, they have captured several towns without a fight. Although Musharraf has promised an army operation to fight them, he needs to shore up his political flanks if he is to succeed.

 

In these troubled times, it is the army that holds the key to Musharraf's political future. He has doggedly hung on to his uniform, despite domestic and international pressure to remove it. But at the end of the day, it is his fellow generals who will decide when they have had enough of being dragged into Musharraf's misadventures.

 

Bhutto's moves

 

Re-entering the cauldron of Pakistani politics after eight years of self-exile to escape corruption charges has been a steep learning curve for Benazir Bhutto, leader of the Pakistan People's Party. In the last year or so, she had conducted a series of secret negotiations with Musharraf's envoys. These culminated in two one-on-one meetings with the Pakistani president. According to widespread media speculation, these talks were aimed at the withdrawal of charges against her, enabling her to return.

 

Her supporters were visibly embarrassed when she did not direct the PPP to join the lawyers' movement to restore the chief justice. So it came as no surprise when Musharraf proclaimed the National Reconciliation Ordinance that gave blanket amnesty to all politicians and bureaucrats against whom charges had been framed between 1988 and 1999. Although the NRO let hundreds off the hook, it was widely seen as Bhutto-specific. As a result, she lost much support among the intelligentsia.

 

However, on her return on 18 October, the assassination attempt that took 140 lives in Karachi won her much public sympathy. And as she realised the extent of Musharraf's unpopularity, she has hardened her stance, demanding the restoration of democracy, the re-instatement of the judges who refused to take an oath under the PCO, and the release of the thousands of political prisoners jailed recently.

 

Although the government has refused to allow her to hold rallies, citing security reasons, her stock has risen as she has allied herself firmly with the snowballing anti-Musharraf movement. There is little talk in the press about the infamous 'deal' between her and Musharraf. Nevertheless, there is a lurking suspicion that in case she is made an offer she can't refuse, she will abandon the pro-democracy movement and accept the prime ministership.

 

But she is too canny a politician to fall for any enticements Musharraf may offer at this point in the endgame that is being played out now. She realises that such a cynical ploy would lose her votes. So if reasonably fair elections are possible under the present circumstances, her PPP is poised to win the biggest number of seats in Parliament. Whatever happens, the next few months promise to be turbulent ones for Pakistan.—SAN-Feature Service Courtesy : Dawn newspaper

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