SAN-Feature Service SOUTH ASIAN NEWS-FEATURE SERVICE July 10,2008 Making the water boil in Praveen Swami Was the attack on the Indian mission in SAN-Feature Service : "The water in Ever since a car bomb ripped through the Indian mission in Kabul on Monday, India's National Security Adviser, M.K. Narayanan, as well as top officials of the Research and Analysis Wing, the Intelligence Bureau and the Ministry of External Affairs, have all been focussed on just one question: was the attack a one-off strike by Islamist terror groups, or part of a focussed operation by Pakistan's covert services to make the water in Afghanistan too hot for India to swim in? Even though the Indian government has chosen not to point fingers in the wake of Monday's bombing, How plausible are these allegations? Answers lie in the quiet war It was only with the rise of the Taliban that India, for the first time in the history of Afghanistan, found itself supporting an opposition group — the Northern Alliance led by Ahmad Shah Massoud. In 1996-1997, RAW initiated negotiations for the use of the Farkhor military airbase, 130 kilometres south-east of RAW's investments in supporting the Not surprisingly, the annihilation of the Taliban after September 11, 2001, radically shifted the balance of power in In July 2003, Weeks after these allegations surfaced, As the Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti-led Baloch insurgency against Were these charges true? It is hard to say. Credible allegations exist that India offered low-grade funding for Baloch insurgents in the wake of the 1971 Bangladesh war of liberation — but then withdrew support to avoid destabilising Prime Minister Bhutto. It is probable, though not proved, that Having said that, such support could have been provided whether or not 'Proxy war' As the French scholar-diplomat Frederic Grare has pointed out, India and Pakistan are "fighting an emerging proxy-war in still war-torn Afghanistan." "The real question," he suggested in a paper for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, "is not whether it is happening but its actually intensity." Grare argued that while there is "little doubt that India has a strong intelligence presence in Afghanistan, this does not necessarily mean it is conducting special operations. But even if it does so, are they militarily significant? The local situation in both Waziristan and Balochistan has been such that Pakistan would have been in trouble in the two areas, irrespective of whether India engaged actively in subversive operations in these regions." From the point of view of Pakistan's covert services, though, time is running out. Despite the revival of its Islamist allies in Afghanistan, Pakistan is more estranged from the country's political elite and its people than at any time in the past. At the same time, India has succeeded in consolidating its presence.. Farkhor, India's only military base outside its territory, is thought to have been in a state of full operational readiness since last year, offering New Delhi's armed forces unprecedented strategic reach. Afghanistan's membership of the South Asia Free Trade Agreement will strengthen its trade ties with India, which is now the largest regional donor to that country's reconstruction programme. India has helped to rebuild roads — including the crucial Kandahar-Iran highway that will relieve Afghanistan of its dependence on Pakistan — airlines, and power plants, and provides support to the health and education sectors. Afghan civil servants, diplomats, and police officials are being trained by India and its elected representatives meet in a building India helped to construct. In coming weeks and months, Afghan investigators — and India's covert services —should have a clearer idea of just who carried out the bombings. If the ISI does turn out to have had a role in the enterprise, it is probable that more attacks on Indian targets in Afghanistan will follow. In that event, the question before Indian strategists will be just what New Delhi can do to deter an enterprise intended to deny it the fruits of its hard-won influence in Afghanistan.—SAN-Feature Service Praveen Swami is a journalist and analyst working for the leading Indian daily THE HINDU |
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Sign the Petition : Release the Arrested University Teachers Immediately : An Appeal to the Caretaker Government of Bangladesh
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Mukto-Mona Celebrates 5th Anniversary
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MM Project : Grand assembly of local freedom fighters at Raumari
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