China's Year of Living Precariously by Mark O'Neill 22 Dec 08 (http://asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1622&Itemid=171) An extraordinary domestic study lists concerns about rents in the social fabric In Dongguan, an export center close to The warning came during the same week that President Hu Jintao gathered It is thus more than true that there are in reality two Chinas and a government in a race to see which one will prevail. The global economic crisis has cast a heavy shadow over In November, the government announced a huge Rmb4 trillion stimulus plan to attempt to ameliorate the slowdown, and that has been followed up by plans by provincial governments to add as much as another Rmb10 trillion in spending. Hardly a day goes by without another announcement of a major stimulus. Last week was typical. On Monday, for instance, the stock market reacted to news that the agriculture sector would be the recipient of major investments, making rural areas and residents a top priority in 2009. On Tuesday, the government announced a substantial boost in spending for the power grid and construction of nuclear plants. On Wednesday, it announced import and export tariffs would be adjusted for machinery and electronics. On Thursday, it announced the launch of yet another stimulus plan to boost real estate starting Jan. 1. On Friday, the State Council announced it would cut the fuel consumption tax. There are questions if it will work. In a remarkably frank study published last week called "Analysis and Predictions of Chinese society in 2009." the China Academy of Social Sciences set out the three big risks for the year ahead: Unemployment could go as high as 9.4 per cent because of the factory closures caused by the financial crisis, the The lack of affordable housing has urban residents angrier than any other issue: 47 per cent of people surveyed said that they lived in bad housing and could not afford their own home. "The housing conditions of low-income people in large and medium cities is far behind those of other groups of the population," the study said. That is being exacerbated by a collapsing housing bubble that may be almost as big as The increasing gap between rich and poor, officials and common people is cause for increasing outrage. "These two conflicts are the most likely fuses for social conflict," the survey. 68.8 per cent of those surveyed said that, during the last 10 years, officials had gained too many benefits, while workers, farmers and migrant workers had gained too little: 36.3 per cent said these conflicts would intensify in future. Corruption remains a major source of discontent, with 39 per cent telling the researchers they were unsatisfied with the government's attempts to deal with it. The study said it was no longer enough to rely on campaigns and individual leaders to fight corruption and that a new system was needed in 2009. Many people in senior positions are corrupt," said Lin Qi, a Formerly the vice-president of the Chinese Jewellery Association, Wen's wife, Zhang Peili is president and chief executive of Beijing Diamond Jewellery Co, which has operations in the mainland and "In The public is also angry that children of leaders occupy senior posts in large state firms, especially in finance and military-related industries. They see the Communist Party as a giant conglomerate, with dense personal networks that divide the spoils of economic success. Without entree into these networks, there is no chance of wealth or promotion. On the streets, the government is now facing the consequences of all these contradictions. Last Friday police locked 300 workers inside the Jianrong Suitcase factory in Dongguan, to prevent them holding a public demonstration about unpaid wages. In Dongguan, as in other cities, tens of thousands of migrant workers have lost their jobs but do not wish to return to a life of poverty in their home villages. Many have taken to crime. The city's police said that a popular tactic is to rob people as they leave banks or withdrew money from ATMs and escape on a motorcycle ridden by an accomplice. Pickpockets are active on the city's buses, especially when a traveler is dozing or uses his mobile telephone. Visitors from In the handbook, the police advise people to lock the windows of their cars, carry their valuables inside their clothes, to not use mobile phones on buses and not ride in unlicensed taxis. In his speech last Thursday, Hu stressed social stability: "without stability, nothing could be done. Even achievements already made could be lost." One threat to the government is social disorder in the form of strikes, demonstrations and attacks on police and government buildings. But so far there is no sign of a Polish-style Solidarity that would co-ordinate the protests and give them a political focus. A second threat to Hu and his government is from those within the party who accuse him of betraying Socialism and promoting social inequality, corruption and privileges to foreigners. Where are the ideals of the revolution for which millions died? A third threat is from 300 intellectuals who issued Charter 08 on December 10 to coincide with the 60th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, calling for political reform, the separation of parliamentary, executive and legal powers, and freedom of expression and association. It is a particularly scathing document. In part it reads: "By departing from these values, the Chinese government's approach to 'modernization' has proven disastrous. It has stripped people of their rights, destroyed their dignity, and corrupted normal human intercourse. So we ask: Where is The government promptly responded by arresting the two main organizers of the charter. Its nightmare is the Polish and Czechoslovak scenarios, where workers and intellectuals united, with the support of the >> The Ghost of Christmas Future By Our Correspondent 17 Dec 08 (http://asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1616&Itemid=590) The first quarter of 2009 is going to look frightening to The retail blight in the As many as 6,500 retail shops are estimated to be closed for good in the The "All the decoupling theory is total bunk," says a top figure in The pace of western retailing bankruptcies is rising. The most recent collapse was KB Toys, a toy chain in the eastern In November the Joseph Skrupa, editor in chief for RIS News, which follows the retail industry, told the Washington Post in December that an estimated 6,500 retail stores will close. Consumer spending accounted for 72 percent of the US economy in 2007, built personal debt that ran to 133 percent of disposable income by the end of 2007. With the Exacerbating the fact that there are fewer orders – and substantial questions whether the strapped or bankrupt retailers at the other end of the supply chain are going to be able to pay off what already has been shipped – is the credit crisis. Certainly, Hong Kong's banks are continuing to ration credit despite the fact that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has pourd almost HK$130 billion into the system since September Hong Kong dollar lending has virtually stopped, with loans going negative in October. Credit facilities are being withdrawn in This can be expected to play itself out with the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs in export-oriented industries in |
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