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Thursday, February 19, 2009

[ALOCHONA] I told you so....Listen to your Desi people, not ADB alerts

ADB alerts BD to face worst of recession

Preparation not being delayed: Muhith
Visiting ADB deputy director general for South Asia Department Frederick Roche on Thursday said Bangladesh needs to begin preparation by now to face any worst situation of the global economic recession, which has gone beyond predictions by world's top economists.
 
"Bangladesh's macro-economy has so far remained immune from the impact of recession. But, of course, time is now to begin preparation," he told reporters, after a meeting with Finance Minister AMA Muhith at the Finance Ministry.
 
The last caretaker government had discussions with the major stakeholders, who are vulnerable to the recession, while the then Finance Adviser Dr Mirza Azizul Islam apprehended that the recession would affect Bangladesh in the fiscal 2009-10 if the global recession deepens further.
 
The new government continued the discussion and immediately after assuming office announced formation of a high-powered body to monitor the emerging situation and take necessary measures to face the challenges.
 
Finance Minister AMA Muhith after a meeting with the frozen food exporters on Thursday told reporters that he was planning to call a meeting of the body very soon - in the first week of next month. Asked if the country's safeguard measures were falling behind the pace of recession's impact on the economy, he said: "I don't think so. It (preparation) is not being delayed in that sense."
 
He said the frozen food sector has so far become the worst victim of the recession while leather, jute, jute goods and apparel sectors were also affected by the recession.
During his 4-day visit to Bangladesh that ended today (Thursday), the ADB senior executive had a series of meetings with ministers, Bangladesh Bank Governor and senior officials of the key line-ministries receiving ADB assistance, and exchanged views on issues including macro-economy, priorities of the new government and emerging situation of the global recession.
 
"The situation of Bangladesh would remain quite manageable until this fiscal year (2008-09). But, if the recession deepens further, the situation could worsen in the next fiscal year," Roche said, stressing the need for careful attention to exports, remittance, external sectors and budgetary measures.
 
Replying to a question, he said the Finance Minister has not raised the need for any assistance from the Asian Development Bank at this stage. However, he said, ADB would be willing to provide any support, if necessary, to help Bangladesh maintain its macro-economic stability. Replying to another question, the ADB official said the major challenge for Bangladesh in the changed scenario is to protect the poor through sustained social safety net programmes and emergency response to food crisis, while generating employment through setting up of labour-intensive small and medium enterprises would be another strategy to support the poor.
 
Asked if it would be required to expand the safety net programmes, he said: "We hope it will not be needed. The donors will be there if additional fund is required." ADB country director Paul J. Heytens, who accompanied Roche, supplemented that "we stand ready to assist Bangladesh on food security issues."
 
Roche said the Finance Minister seemed quite confident in managing the situation despite the fact that the world situation was changing every moment. "Hope for the best and prepare for the worst," he said, replying to another question. ADB's South Asia region comprises Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
Based in Manila, ADB is dedicated to reducing poverty in the Asia and Pacific region through pro-poor sustainable economic growth, social development and good governance. Established in 1966, it is owned by 67 members - 48 from the region.


--- On Sun, 2/8/09, M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@yahoo.com> wrote:
From: M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@yahoo.com>
Subject: Financial and Strategic Warning to Current Govt in Bangladesh
To: cgmpservices@yahoo.com
Date: Sunday, February 8, 2009, 7:34 PM

I am so much worried about few of Moran Ministers in Bangladesh that they may sink the ship in Bangladesh while they are in driver seats.  The reason of my frustration is that they are stoning wrong birds to accomplish people needs.  Now I am hearing the following statements:
 
 
2) Signing Transit Agreement with India is not ripe time yet.  Every country is building bunkers for their survival, nobody will give you more, so signing with them won't help you a penny.
 
3) South Asian Security Force.  A recipe for a disaster unless Bangladesh is Iraq or Afghanistan situation.  US canceled TIFA since they are in big hole in financial situation.
 
4) Trail of Razakars should be second priority under the current financial condition of Bangladesh.  This will take off our real focus of emergency needs in Bangladesh.
 
5) Law and Order is deteriorating - Taj.  This is the benchmark for any Govt success.
 
6) Mr. Zillur as a President is a wrong choice in wrong time.  Bnagladesh needs a dynamic, strong, visionary person to lead Bangladesh in this tough time.  No time to bring oxygen tanks and carry all places.
 
The bottom line is that why either AL or BNP parties does not have qualified people to run Bangladesh and establish the priorities that they need to focus.  I am more than convinced now that Current Govt needs to bring expertise and experiences NRBs to develop few strategic plan and focus which will help Bangladesh next 3-4 years.
 
I hope that someone in AL Govt listening my call.  Even they do not listen to me,  I have nothing to loose but I believe that I should do for Bangladesh as much as possible with my power and limitation.
 
God Bless Bangladesh and help poor people in this coming financial storm. 
 
Regards,
M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu), Virginia, USA


--- On Sun, 2/1/09, M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@yahoo.com> wrote:
From: M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@yahoo.com>
Subject: Bangladesh Needs Local Stimulate Package
To: cgmpservices@yahoo.com
Date: Sunday, February 1, 2009, 9:25 PM


The following are real strategies which will help Bangladesh to ride over this upcoming financial turmoil:
 
1) Provide stimulate package to ICT companies and provide all Govt ICT projects to locals to make digital Bangladesh.  If some one in current Govt knows what digital means to them.  Use local programmers and networking engineers to employ as much as possible.  This will create enough works to keep ICT going with creating more jobs.
 
2) Provide enough finance to build the Pharmaceuticals park at Munshigonj.  20% works was done, complete this projects which will create huge jobs for now.
 
3) Since overseas market is bad,  few of NRBs might be interested to come back Bangladesh to develop this country with their expertis and experiences.  Govt needs to make sure to provide tax free income during their stay in Bangladesh like Middle Eastern Countires.  Provide enough facilities and security to perform their work during living in Bangladesh.
 
4) If there is less corruption in Bangladesh,  NRBs might be interested to invest in Bangladesh to take opportunity during this financial turmoil.
 
5) Bangladesh Govt needs to adopt new policy to attract NRBs in Bangladesh.
 
Regards,
M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu), Virginia, USA
www.changebangladesh.org

--- On Fri, 1/30/09, M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@yahoo.com> wrote:
From: M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@yahoo.com>
Subject: Perfect Storm is coming to Bangladesh
To: cgmpservices@yahoo.com
Date: Friday, January 30, 2009, 5:28 PM

Dear All,
 
You may wonder what kind of storm I am talking about.  It's  economical storm that Bangladesh never experienced before.  I am little bit worried that economists and present Minsters in Bangladesh are not paying much attention about this storm.  Well the problem is that if you do not know a Storm is coming, then you won't be prepared for it.  There will be a situation that we will start blame game, he or she didn't tell me, I didn't know, nobody even PM didn't say this.  Well then listen from me please.
 
My conservative estimate is that economical storm in the world will exist until 2012,  if you can ride on this storm, then you will survive, if you can't then good luck.  I like to provide few strategic outlines what to do in this perfect economical storm in Bangladesh.
 
1) Current Govt should recognize that a perfect storm is coming.  If USA could recognize this storm in 2006,  USA won't be in this position now.
 
2) Put resources in place so Govt can take care its people and feed them trough out the storm period.
 
3) Stop biased or favoritism in Bangladesh.  Once I am hungry,  I won't say I am AL or BNP,  all I will say give me food and job to survive.  So based on basis of human rights,  its current Govt duty to help people regardless his or her party affiliations.
 
4) Bangladesh Real Estate bubble will be burst within year and so, so Govt should be prepared with huge layoff in that sector as well as other sectors.  Most of the Real Estate bubble in Bangladesh were created by NRBs and corrupted money in Bangladesh.  NRBs are real squeeze in financial aspect and won't be able to continue support the sky rocket price of land and apartments in Bangladesh.
 
5) Pharmaceuticals is the only sector which is recession proved in Bangladesh.  I have asked BNP Govt in 2005 to modernize this sector, CTG in 2007 and I am asking AL Govt in 2009 to pay attention and use NRBs expertise to develop this sector.  This is the only sector that you have no choice but to bring experts NRBs in Bangladesh to develop this sector for future growth.
 
6) NRBs and people in Bangladesh should lower their life style to ride on this storm.  Excessive waste will bring up other people's misery.
 
God Bless Bangladesh and help her 150 Million poor people in this coming perfect Storm.
 
Note:  My advise is not to direct any individuals or parties or NRBs, but to reach out to them and what we can do for the people during this bad economical  times.
 
Regards,
M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu), USA
Director, Political and Economical Development in Bangladesh
Change Bangladesh organization, USA
www.changebanglades h.org


--- On Tue, 1/20/09, M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@yahoo.com> wrote:
From: M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@yahoo.com>
Subject: [khabor.com] Why USA won't able to get out of this financial mess
To: cgmpservices@yahoo.com
Date: Tuesday, January 20, 2009, 12:41 PM

Dear All,
 
I think and believe that we in USA are concern like any others about financial impact in USA and rest of the world and where this will lead us in the next 8 years.  I congratulate President Obama for taking the USA leadership but I am cautious like others even though I have campaign for Obama among Bangladeshi Community in USA.
 
Let's see the scenario why USA is in this position which is very different than 1930's and what steps should be taken for the incremental improvement.
 
Reasons for this mess
 
1) More than $20T, start with Trillion dollars of investors money has been lost in the last 12 months including personal 401K money. So the people confidence in companies is lower than ever.
 
2) More than 500,000 jobs have been cut per month by companies in USA, if it's continue then at the end of 2009 total 6 million jobs will be lost.  Adding 2 million jobs already have been lost in the last 24 months.  This is creating a nightmare for the consumers to spend  discretionary money.
 
3) Two third of the economy are depended on consumer spending,  when consumer stopped buying like before,  companies can not make money, their stocks goes down and companies start laying off to make baseline profit for the company.  This is called a cycle of uncertainty.
 
4) Biggest problem is that USA consumers has borrowed two times of their house worth for the last 5 years.  For example, if a house price is $100K in 1999, it went up to $300K in 2006, so extra $200K was borrowed from foreign countries to mortgage people's houses in USA.  Therefore, deficit went over the roof.  If this is continued,  few wealthy countries might not be interested to invest in USA like before because losing confidence into USA economy and their investment returns.
 
5) Once people lost jobs, they can not afford to pay high mortgage which they could not afford at the first place.  US Govt can not pay everybody extra interest for the mortgage they owe to banks.  This might come over $10T, start with Trillion.
 
6) Once companies make less money, the Govt tax collection also becomes low.  So more deficit for USA.  Intake is higher than delivery.
 
7) USA does not have leadership of many technologies like before, so USA has more competitors than before i.e. China and India.
 
8) More liability for baby boomers in years ahead, means need more money to take care her citizens like Social Security and Medicare.
 
9) Iraq war alone costs USA close to $1T and need another $1.2T to take care veterans health and financial liabilities.
 
10) Dollar might go down compare to others currency once foreign countries start withdraw their investment or stopped new investment in USA, i.e.  stop buying USA Bond.
 
Options to way of of this mess:
 
So what do USA have now?  President Obama's sweet talks might not bring much fruits unless he can show leadership and put new policies in place very quickly, so situation does not get out of control.  I personally think that President Obama should do the following for the love of this country.
 
1)  President Obama should provide executive order to cut military budget of $465B to only $50B.  Bring all military installation back home unless foreign countries provide the bill.
 
2) Provide middle class incentives as soon as possible.
 
3) Stop giving big money to banks but give direct loan to consumers from Govt Treasure.  I know it does not sound Capitalist,  but US Govt does not have any other option.  For example,  If I know that this consumer will not able to pay back my money,  I won't make loan to him even I get pressured from Govt unless Govt takes all the toxic assets.  Same situation, Banks are not lending even they got US Govt money.  Banks know consumers do not have enough money or may lose job soon whichever is first.
 
4) Provide stimulate money if there is any Corrective and Preventive Action (CAPA) in place for the new projects which will create jobs.
 
I hope and pray US gets out of this mess but I am very pessimistic now based on the scenario I have presented you here, unless miracle happens in USA.
 
God bless USA and her people.
 
Regards,
M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu), Virginia, USA
 


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