THERE is a similarity in the just announced results of the Indian elections with Bangladesh's on December 29th. The winners in both cases were expected to win but the ultimate results were beyond their most optimistic expectations. In India's case, the Congress led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) overcame the anti-incumbency bug to return to power. Manmohon Singh, already named to become Prime Minister for another term, will thus become the first PM after Jawaharlal Nehru in 1961 to return to office in successive elections. It was the Congress' best show in many decades. The party won 203 seats; a number they passed in 1984 and 1991, both held after assassinations (1984, Indira Gandhi; 1991, Rajiv Gandhi) that brought the party sympathy votes.
In the final tally, the Congress led UPA won 260 seats, just teasingly short of the magical figure of 272. Its main opponent the BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) secured 158 seats. In the last elections, the Congress had won only 145 seats and was at the mercy of its alliance partners, an amalgam of left and regional parties, to govern India and carry out the economic reforms crucial to India's future. This time, the party is much better poised to stamp its authority on alliance partners and thus it will be better placed to carry its agenda of economic reform. It can get the remaining number short of 272 without any horse trading. The elections will thus bring a stable government in New Delhi.
The results have given a national party the mandate to govern the country after many decades when politics in New Delhi was subjected to the regional agenda with region based parties sharing power with a national party like the Congress or the BJP in a manner where they could dictate many of the decisions. In fact, one of the most decisive verdicts of the Indian elections has been the choice of the voters against regionalism, although before the elections regional leaders such as Mayawati, Buddhadev Bhattacharya, Narendra Modi and a few others were being touted as possible Prime Ministers. The elections have thus rejected regionalism in national politics.
Among the other clear choices that the voters have made, one is undoubtedly for a secular India. BJP leaders themselves have put blame on Varun Gandhi's anti-Muslim hate speech during the campaign and Gujarat Chief Minister Mr. Narendra Modi's name coming up as a possible Prime Minister of India as two of the main reasons for NDA's resounding defeat. Mr. Modi earned notoriety both in India and abroad for his role in instigating anti-Muslim riots in his province in 2002 for which he has been black listed for US visa by the US authorities. The Indian voters have thus cast their votes for secularism and against communalism.
The UPA, however, did not win the elections on just these negative factors. The voters have taken note of the positive changes that India has achieved in the last five years and concluded that they needed the Congress for another term with a clear mandate to transform India into one of the top economies of the world. They have also voted with the clear perception that in the turbulent times through which India is passing with the rest of the world, she needed at the centre a national party that would look to the outside world rather than get bogged down with conflicts and politics in the regions of India. The results indicate a faith in the Congress for its policies and outlook.
The routing of the left front that had been a major obstacle for the Congress-led government is another major outcome of the elections. The left led a third front and lost even in its traditional strongholds of Kerala and West Bengal. It came out of the UPA government and opposed many of the economic reforms and the civil nuclear deal with the USA. Mamata Banarjee's Trinomul bagged 19 seats and with Congress winning 25 of the 42 seats in West Bengal, leaving the left with 15, it gave rise to speculation that the left's decades-old stranglehold in WB may be fading. The voters have also unequivocally rejected the left in national politics as a third force.
The voters' choice for UPA will have a positive impact on how India builds its strategic partnership with the United States. When Manmohon Singh signed the civil nuclear deal, President Bush was in office. As Prime Minister of a stronger Indian government, Manmohon Singh can now build upon that partnership with President Obama. He will now be in a more comfortable situation dealing with President Obama on other issues extending from economic reforms to climate change. President Obama will also find himself dealing with a new and strong Indian government at a time when the US is deeply involved with security of the region, with situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan sliding and in need of a dependable regional ally. A strong government in New Delhi will also send equally strong signals abroad to dispel fears of foreign investors.
Indian voters have always been fascinated with charismatic national leaders and for good reasons. In the British days, they were fascinated with Gandhi, Patel and a host of other national leaders. In free India, they were fascinated with Nehru and then Indira Gandhi. Then as regional politics took hold in New Delhi, charismatic national leaders became history. This year's elections witnessed the re-emergence of charisma in Indian politics manifested with all the charm and aura in the person of Rahul Gandhi, whose mother Congress Chief and wife of late Rajiv Gandhi matched her son as another charismatic leader in Indian politics. The son and mother duo had a significant impact on voters in favour of the Congress led UPA. Rahul, the anti-thesis of his cousin Varun, is now seen as a Prime Minister waiting in the wings and will surely be inducted in the new government.
For Bangladesh, the results have opened opportunities on a number of fronts. It will allow our government to interact with a stable government in New Delhi led by a resurgent Congress with which the Awami League has traditional and historical affinity. As a Prime Minister Dr. Manmohon Singh is wise and positive and we can expect that in his second term he will focus more on improvement of relations with neighbours including Bangladesh. The elections will bring into Indian politics a new generation of leaders led by Rahul Gandhi who can be expected to look forward to for a better South Asia than has hitherto been the case. We were disappointed at the way relations have been handled since the AL came to office in January, particularly surprised that the Indian Foreign Minister visited Dhaka and had failed to meet the leader of the opposition while meeting the Army Chief. We hope the new government will be more sensitive towards Bangladesh.
The Indian elections have many lessons for us if we are willing to take. The grace with which LK Advani accepted defeat is a lesson that, if taken by our leading politicians, could really open a world of opportunity for us. His offer to resign to take responsibility for his front and party's defeat is a democratic tradition that we could emulate in Bangladesh. On his part, Manmohon Singh sought Advani's support and constructive criticism to run the new government, saying: "we must open a new chapter in the working relations between the government and the principal opposition." Sonia Gandhi's leadership style where she has put the nation before self is one our political leaders could follow.
The new governments in India and Bangladesh are expected to run parallel over the next five years. These are momentous times when opportunities are knocking at our doors. In Bangladesh, there has been a perceptible change in mindset for better relations with India based on mutuality. A strong government under Manmohon Singh can ensure a similar change in the Indian mindset. The two Prime Ministers must meet without losing time to cash upon the wind of change in our respective countries. They should send the message to the respective administrations that they have the political will for the change in the mindset that has kept Bangladesh-India relations from achieving their potentials... We should also make diplomatic efforts to reach Sonia Gandhi for her support in building Bangladesh-India relations and not get bogged down at the level of the Indian External Affairs Ministry where we seem to be stuck at the moment. The new Indian Government will take office after the parliament meets on June 2nd.
The writer is a former Ambassador to Japan and Director, Centre for Foreign Affairs Studies. 