Govt. inactive: Tipaimukh dam will endanger Bangladesh's existence M. Shahidul Islam Lessons of history could be painful or inspiring, but they can only be ignored at great perils. The South Asian nations having experienced agonizing lessons in the past, it's time for the new generation to grasp the reality and learn how to use those throbbing lessons for the benefit of the posterity. As a nation, our experience with the impact of the Farakka Barrage remains one of mixed anger and disillusionment. Yet, the blame can be poured on none but us alone. Ayub, Mujib eras When India started constructing the Farakka Barrage in 1960, President Ayub Khan managed to put a stoppage on it by saying, "I will bomb the hell out of that barrage as it will kill my people by depriving them of water." Ever since, much of what led to the 1965 Indo-Pak war and the subsequent break up of Pakistan through another war in 1971 remains hidden in that particular threat. However, India did complete and commission the Farakka Barrage, albeit not until the creation of Bangladesh. The barrage's construction ended only in 1974 and the then regime of Sheikh Mujib allowed India in 1975 to divert Ganges water at Farakka at Delhi's sweet will. Zia, ICJ, UNGA When the diversion reached an alarming level in 1976-77 -- resulting in drying of watercourses everywhere downstream inside Bangladesh -- President Zia threatened to initiate litigation against India in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and referred the issue for a debate at the UN General Assembly (UNGA). Zia's strategy too paid a handsome dividend, resulting in the 1977 agreement relating to the sharing of Ganges water which, fortunately, contained a special clause to augment and reduce the flow of water of international rivers through regional cooperation and ensured a guaranteed minimum quantum of water for Bangladesh in the dry season. But seldom was this unfortunate nation was governed by nationalist leaders. Then Delhi was allowed to change that special clause in 1996 by signing a 30-year-long treaty with Bangladesh after the Awami League (AL) came to power following 21 years of hiatus and a turbulent journey through a blood-soaked history from 1972 - 75. MPs team minus BNP The Cabinet's recent approval in principle of the Asian highways aside - which literary means granting of two corridors to India - the decision to dispatch MPs from various parties (excluding the BNP) to the Tipaimukh site is an eyewash of great magnitude. MPs are not technical experts per se, are they. Any twist of historical realities is treacherous, unethical, untrue and dishonest at a time when as a people our existence stands at stake. Such lessons are also more relevant now due to the AL having returned to power once again and the dangerous game with respect to Bangladesh's future having begun to worry observers at home and abroad. Adverse economic impacts That aside, it is too late and too little as India has already resumed construction works on the Tipaimukh site of the Barak River, just less than a kilometre upstream north of Jakiganj, Sylhet, following a halt since March 2007 when the people of the Indian state of Manipur launched a movement to stop the project due to its potential adverse economic, social and ecological impacts on their lives. Delhi also chose to ignore and bypass a ban imposed by the Manipur State Assembly in the same year by turning the issue to be a federal one. Reports say the US$1.3 billion project is expected to be complete in 2012. Impact of Surma, Kushiara, Meghna Once commissioned after a couple of years, Tipaimukh dam will virtually dry up the Surma and the Kushiara rivers, choke up the flow of Meghna and cause severe flooding in the north-eastern regions of Bangladesh as does the Farakka Barrage to the north-west of this country. The dam is a gigantic engineering project, although it sits on a precarious rock-filled topography with a central impervious core. With 180 metres height above the sea level and its reservoir having a storage capacity to hold 15,900 million cubic metres of water within its depth of 1,725.5 metres, the vast pool of water can act as dynamite in case of technical fault or natural disaster like earthquake in that region which is prone to earthquakes. Besides, the original plan to only hold flood water in the Cachar plains of Assam has been changed to include hydroelectric power generation, confirming that India will hold the natural flow of water to keep the hydroelectric operation functional. Not only that, some reports suggest another dam is being constructed at Phulertala, adjacent to the same site. Devastating earthquake zone Even Indian experts say the Tipaimukh dam is housed on a dangerous topography. For example, Dr. Soibam Ibotombi of the Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of Manipur, did an extensive study on the ecological impact of the dam and concluded that the rocks of Surma Group are well characterised by folds and faults, hence susceptible to earthquake. He says they have well developed fractures that match with the topographic features and drainage patterns of the region and the geometry of folds found in the region is quite typical as in other parts of the Surma Basin and Western Manipur. His study shows, the region's "Antiforms are generally sharp and angular, forming ridges while synforms are broad and rounded, representing valleys and river beds. Such geometry of the folds might have been controlled by hidden faults known as 'blind thrusts' and these thrusts could be potential earthquake foci any time." All these faults and fractures also cause localized shifting or deflection of the main river course, including those occurred at the confluence of Barak and Tuivai Rivers. He concludes, "Such faults are potentially active and may be focal and/or epicentres of any future earthquake." Imagine the consequences of an earthquake and bursting of the dam. The dam's storage itself alone containing 15,900 million m waters, the entire district of Sylhet will be inundated within hours by the onset of an uncontrollable torrent of water bodies surging downstream. Serious economic impact Other experts say the economic consequence on Bangladesh will be routinely devastating and too profound to ignore. They say the Surma-Kushiara and its 60 branch and distributaries support the agriculture, irrigation, navigation, drinking water supply, fisheries, wildlife in numerous haors and low-lying areas in the entire Sylhet division and the adjacent areas of Dhaka division too. The same river system also supports internal navigation, wildlife in hundreds of haors, industries; including gas, fertilizer and electricity productions. Besides, well over five crore people of Sylhet and Dhaka divisions will be affected by the dam due to the Surma and the Kushiara losing about five feet water in the rainy season. Environmental degradation Add to it the chronic environmental degradation, severely affecting weather and climate and turning a wet cooler environment into a hot uncomfortable cauldron that the region of Sylhet, or the people of Bangladesh is not accustomed to. Sedimentation, flooding More alarming is the fact that according to some experts, within 15 years of the project's commission, there will be no water in the rivers within Bangladesh that get sustained from the flow upstream in India. Scarcity of water will cause siltation on river beds and, when high rainfall will occur in the catchments area of the dam, enormous quantity of sediment-laden flood water will be released, resulting severe flooding in the Surma and Kushiara channels and the adjoining areas. Salinity intrusion At the same time, navigation in river channels in the Meghna will be affected due to depletion of water flow and consequent sedimentation and severity of flooding during every monsoon. Surface irrigation will be endangered. Further impact will result in lower flowing in the Meghna-Padma watercourse, accentuating saline backwater intrusion in the Padma channel too. In totality, "agricultural avocation of people from around 20 districts will be affected directly and indirectly," says Professor Anu Muhammad of the Economics department, Jahangirnagar University, due to the Barak-Surma-Kushiara-Meghna river system stretching about 946 km, of which 669 km flowing inside Bangladesh. International law damned That India is showing a damning attitude towards international law is for reasons that we ourselves have created. The primary source of international law being bilateral or international agreements, Bangladesh's legal ground has greatly been compromised by the 1996 Ganges water treaty, although instruments and various memorandums prepared in the course of the Joint River Commission (JRC)'s operation over the preceding decades - as well as the other international legal instruments and jurisprudence - will still suffice to serve Bangladesh's interests as a victim nation. India breached CNNUIW law For example, India is in breach of the UN General Assembly's 1997 Convention on the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses (CNNUIW) that deals with legal matters relating to the use of watercourses traversing national boundaries and sets out the obligations of states building projects or damns on international rivers, or, on water basins which cross an international boundary. The CNNUIW not only makes it imperative on the host nation to comply with all international obligations relating to common waterways, it also insists upon ensuring compliance on (1) doctrine of hydrological unity, (2) principle to do no significant harm, (3) principle of equitable and reasonable use, (4) principle of prior notification, and, (5) Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). The CNNUIW being the most comprehensive document with respect to resolving international disputes on use of common waterways, it has carefully embodied the principle of good faith negotiations among disputing nations as the acceptable mechanism to settle disputes. Articles 8 and 17 of the CNNUIW deal with these modalities exhaustively. Besides, Article 11 requires of the watercourse states to exchange information and consult with each other on planned measures, especially those that may have an adverse impact on one of the states. Other relevant sources of law and jurisprudence include the principles used in determining the (1) Lake Lanoux Arbitration, (2) North Sea Continental Shelf case in the ICJ, (3) various UN declarations and the UN Charter's stipulation concerning friendly relations and cooperation among states, (4) UN/ECE Convention on the protection and use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (TWIL), (5) the Rio declaration, etc., among many others. Case for Bangladesh Besides, the World Commission on Dams (WCD) had necessitated Gaining Public Acceptance (GPA) as a precondition for construction of large dams. Despite the prevalence of a plethora of such legal prescriptions and modalities, the attitude of the Indian government has been, so far, not to pay much heed to such concerns. Part of the reason may well be grounded on the undue attention being given to Delhi by country like the US which showed no qualm even in transferring nuclear technology to a nation (India) that had defiantly withheld its consent to signing the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT) for decades. Had that not been the case, how can the Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, say, "Some political and social organizations are doing politics with Tipiamukh dam without any cause" while the Indian minister of water affairs, Ramesh chandra Sen, gathers audacity to state: "After Construction of the dam, we will decide what to do." The statement of India's water affairs minister in particular demonstrates the magnitude of arrogance that India often shows while dealing with militarily weaker neighbours as much as it illustrates Delhi's dogged unwillingness to share vital information with the disaffected nation (Bangladesh) before beginning to blending cement and rock together in the dam construction site. JRC meetings: 2003 - 5 According to former water resource minister, Hafiz Uddin, the Indian government was asked to give data about the Tipaimukh Dam twice during the JRC meetings in 2003 and 2005, which was never given. If that is true, Bangladesh does have a good case in hand to block the Tipaimukh dam's construction by filing a preemptive writ at the ICJ for which there are too many legal tools around to aide Bangladesh in winning the case against India. For instance, the ICJ had entertained similar proceedings on the Gabcikovo-Nagymaros Project (Hungary v. Slovakia) and had taken into cognizance the allegations of transboundary environmental harm to both surface and ground water resources stemming from the operation of the Gabcikovo-Nagymaros and the Danube River diversion channel. In 1992, Slovakia diverted her border river with Hungary onto her own territory and thereby destroyed Hungary's ancient wetlands, while keeping the generated electricity to Slovakia alone. On June 20, 1995, the ICJ accepted the first "amicus curiae" (friends of the court) filing on behalf of nine international environmental and human rights NGOs, which demanded the restoration of the Danube ecosystem. This acceptance of what has become known as the "NGO Memorial" was a precedent setting first step towards the eventual development of a body of international law that now helps protect the natural environment against irresponsible acts of national governments like India. The ICJ also added a meaningful biting power to the proceedings by declaring on 25th September, 1997, that implementing the diversion of the Danube was illegal and that the 1977 original treaty must be respected by both states. Govt. is constrained All these legal tools and the fear of being thrown out of existence as a nation have combined to stir unprecedented public anger within Bangladesh against the construction of the Tipaimukh dam by India. Observers say, if the Government feels lamentably constrained to make a move towards initiating litigation against India for some unknown reasons, some of our NGOs or individual citizens must. Time is running out. |
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