The Tsangpo River diversion project in Tibet"The Tibetan plateau is the 'Principal Asian watershed and source of ten major rivers. Tibet water travel to eleven countries and are said to bring fresh water to over 85% of Asian population, approximately 50% of world's population. Four of the world ten rivers the Brahmaputra, Indus, Yangtze, and Mekong have their head water on the Tibetan plateau. The other major Rivers which originate from Tibet are Sutlej, Karnali, Arun,Huang ho(yellow river) , Salween rivers .South Asia is mainly concerned with Brahmaputra, Indus, sutlej, Arun, Karnali, whose water is life line for more than I billion people living downstream . ."It is roughly estimated that 10-20% of Himalayan region is covered by glaciers ice while an addition area ranging from 30- 40% has seasonal snow cover Himalayan glaciers covers around 100,000 sq kms and store about 12,000 cubic kms of fresh water .The most incredible water tank in the world. China is facing a very serious water shortage, this problem is sought to be solved by diverting large quantities of water from the wet south to dry north .. Traditionally in China people respect their emperor when he undertakes grandiose projects that no human mind can conceive of. Since 1949, successive emperors have all undertaken such massive projects; the last one was the Three Gorges Dam initiated by then Chinese premier Li Peng. Today, as Hu Jintao and the Fourth Generation takes over China; an even more colossal project is lying on the design table: South-North water diversion. Engineers in Beijing have conceived a south –north water diversion. 1989: The "Preparatory Committee for the Shoutian Canal" was formed and headed by three senior generals.1996: The west became aware of the project.Late 1990s: 208 NPC (National People's Congress) deputies and 118 CPPCC (Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference) delegates produced 16 proposals supporting the project. May 18-June 22, 1999: An official survey covered 13,600km and calculated that 600B m3 per year of the Brahmaputra waters were being wasted in Tibet.1999: Jiang Zemin announced the "xibu da kaifa" (Great Western Extraction) that would transfer huge volumes of water from Tibet into the Yellow River. It was now fully supported by 118 generals, and the Politburo. It inspired Li Ling's book How Tibet's Water Will Save China, detailing Guo Kai's "Shuo-tian" (reverse flow) canal as the solution to chronic water shortages in China's dry north and northwest. Li Guoying director, Yellow River Water Conservancy Committee said "the project was essential because the Yellow River's current flow is being exhausted by development demands in western China". November 2005: Strategy manual Save China Through Water From Tibet adopted by the PLA, relevant ministries and directorates.End 2005: China Hydropower Engineering Consulting Group began analysing hydro potential on sectors of the Yalung Tsangpo. February 2006: Detailed planning for the "Tsangpo Project" approved by State Council with the full support of Hu Jintao. Chief planner is Professor Chen Chuanyu.End June 2006: Studies concluded on the potential of the lower reaches of the Yalung Tsangpo.August 2006: Li Guoying, director, Yellow River Water Conservancy Committee: … the (Yalung) project was essential because the Yellow River's current flow is being exhausted by development demands in western China … The route isn't especially long, but it's technologically challenging, and it's a matter of resolving the engineering and environmental questions. This project will be launched once the economic and social development of the NW reaches a certain level and the potential of water saving measures is exhausted. The Western Route is a firm plan and will go ahead .... CCP's leaders and nearly all engineers, claim the W Route will fulfil promises to use rising economic and technological might to lift the less developed west. Hydro projects now in the planning stages include the Tsangpo Project as one of eight in Nyingchi.October 2006: Beijing denied any support or approval for the "Tsangpo Project" but referred to Tibet as "an inexhaustible source of water". October, 2007: General Zhao Nanqi said, "Even if we do not begin this water diversion project, the next generation will. Sooner or later it will be done". Construction was already scheduled to commence 2010 as part of the 100B Yuan Tibet capital works program.Discussion and on ground work has been ratcheted up since early 2003 with reports of intensive activity in the main gorge that Beijing claims to be mineral exploration. Google Earth viewers will find this area blanked out by China. "It is the largest river on the Tibetan plateau, originating from a glacier near Mt. Kailash. It is considered to be the highest river on earth with an average altitude of 4,000 meters. It runs 2,057 kilometers in Tibet before flowing into India, where it becomes the Brahmaputra. One of its interesting characteristics is the 'SHARP U-TURN' it takes at the proximity of Mt. Namcha Barwa (7,782 meters) near the Indian border." "Like the Nile in Egypt, the Yarlung Tsangpo has nurtured the Tibetan civilization which flourished along its valleys, particularly in Central Tibet.""Near Shigatse region, the Yarlung valley is 20-30 kms wide. This area with its sand dunes and lakes is the cradle of the two thousand year-old civilization.""The Yarlung Tsangpo enters India in Siang district of Arunachal Pradesh. The Brahmaputra has always been considered the very soul of the State by Assamese poets and ordinary people alike. Finally it divides into hundreds of channels to form a vast delta which flows into the Bay of Bengal. Although Chinese government claimed that the project is still at a conceptual stage, confidential sources confirmed that work of the project has already begun with the target to finish it in next five to seven years. Tsangpo project is part of China's long-term river interlinking project to divert water from south to north. China wants to build the dam as water flow of Yellow River declined due to huge water demand of the people of both sides of the river. "Although China denies launching of the project work, India and Bangladesh believe they will go ahead with its plan to divert water from south to north for irrigation in the vast stretches of land," India has already expressed concern, fearing similar effects in Assam and Arunachal provinces. Experts suggested that Bangladesh create pressure on China as per a United Nations convention on Law of Non-Navigation Uses of International Watercourses, which disallows countries from barring natural flow of water of any international river.As Brahmaputra is an international river, China cannot build dams blocking water flow without prior permissions of Bangladesh and India.but same situation is created by wullar barrage Kishangang and buhglair dam diversion plan by India in Kashmir to totally barren province of Punjab Pakistan.. Bangladesh is already facing water crisis in the major rivers due to India's Farakka barrage on the Padma. Some 17 rivers have already died and seven more are awaiting the same fate due to the barrage.India is also planning to construct Tipaimukh dam on the upstream of Meghna River and initiate a river interlinking project that threatens to worsen the water crisis in Bangladesh and in Pakistan . The river begins its journey in the glacier of western Tibet in close proximity to the sources of other mighty rivers -- the Indus and Sutlej, in the holy land of Lake Mansrovar and Mount Kailash. The Tsandpo-Brahmaputra travels west for 1,500 miles, hugging the northern slopes of the Himalayas through Tibet. All along its journey it gathers more water and sustains life in Tibet. Because of its remoteness, it has long gone unexplored. The river skirts the last of the Himalayan ranges and turns south into India into Arunachal Pradesh. It later turns west into the plains of the Indian state of Assam. Multiple smaller rivers join it in Arunachal Pradesh to make it into a huge water resource. At about this place the pre-rainy season flow averages well above 120,000 cubic feet per second, rising to 1million cubic feet per second during the heavy monsoon rains. The Tsandpo begins its long journey at about 13,000 feet and drops to about 5,000 feet in eastern Tibet, before it enters India. Through a series of mysterious falls and gorges, the river manages to drop to about 1,000 feet and then to 500 feet in Assam state. The water flow before the river enters Arunachal Pradesh is about 60,000 cubic feet per second. It is mostly fresh glacial water. As the river meanders thru Arunachal Pradesh it receives additional water from its tributaries and then in Assam from the discharge of other streams. The 1 million cubic feet per second flow of the Brahmaputra during the rainy season is due to the topography of the land. All the rainfall in the Assam hills is discharged into this river, making it at places 10 kilometers wide. This area is known for the highest rainfall in the world, leading at times to massive flooding in Assam and Bangladesh. Flooding brings misery, but it is also welcomed as it deposits rich nutrients for better crops the following year. Ever since they occupied Tibet, the Chinese have viewed the Tsandpo-Brahmaputra River as a source of hydroelectric power and a new source of water for the Yangtze River and parched northeast China. Numerous rafting expeditions by the Chinese military were mounted to explore the river, prior to its entry into the deep gorges in India. They were looking for a suitable site to divert the river. The first hint of this scheme came out in official Chinese newspapers in the 1990s, confirming its intent. A Chinese-inspired paper in Scientific American in June 1996 also confirmed it.final words came in may 2007 and China is going to start work in 2009. The Chinese wished to use the tremendous drop in elevation of about 8,000 feet to generate electricity. According to the Chinese account, 40,000 megawatts could be generated. Just before it enters India, the river would be diverted through a network of canals, tunnels and pipelines to China's parched mainland. All the electricity generated would be needed to pump the river into the new system. The advantage to the Chinese would be that the parched northwest may become fertile. at the bottom of the tunnel, the water flow into a new reservoir and than diverted along more than 500 miles of Tibetan plateau to the vast ,arid areas of Xingjian region and Gansu province . Beijing want to use large quantities of the plentiful water of south –west to top up the Yellow river basin .mounting discontent over water shortage in 600-800 cities in northern China. Any remaining water could join the Yangtze River to inhibit silting in the Three Gorges Dam. This scheme is twice as big as the Three Gorges Dam. About half the total capital of about US$40 billion will go to power generation and the rest into dams, diversion canals, pipelines and tunnels. The Tsangpo River originating in the western Tibetan plateau runs east then, bending acutely around a mountain knot called the Namcha Barwa, enters northeast Arunachal Pradesh as Siang, flowing south for a brief stretch, and then flows southwest into the Assam valley as the Brahmaputra. In its upper part, the river system passes through one of the longest and deepest canyons in the world. It enters Bangladesh near Rajibpur Upazila in Kurigram district and flows south retaining this name, but as it departs its old course as the Old Brhamaputra near Dewanganj (Jamalpur) it is known as the Jamuna.. It is in this set-up that a giant dam, expected to be the biggest plant ever made in the world, is to be constructed near the Namcha Barwa by the Chinese, within a few years.It is expected that the dam will generate 40 million kilowatts per hour of hydroelectricity (double the Three Gorges Dam over the Yangtse) once its 26 turbines begin operation. The electricity produced could be exported to India, Bangladesh and Myanmar. The 750M Yuan allocation for construction of the Medog highway suggests credence to the initiation of the Tsangpo Project.State media has made numerous recent references to the 141km Bomi-Medog highway linking the lower Brahmaputra Valley with Tibet's main east-west highway 318. This is unusual expenditure considering Medog's population is less than 10,000 and mostly consists of Tibetans. Medog is 30km north of the disputed border with India and has a heavy, and reportedly increasing, military presence. In China, the diverted water would irrigate the northwestern part of the Gobi desert in Xinjiang and Gansu provinces of the country, aiming at crop production, and ease overpopulation in the east. The Chinese Academy of Engineering Physics asserts "we can certainly accomplish this project with nuclear explosives." Its chief planner, Professor Chen Chuanyu, described the plan to drill a 15 km tunnel through the Himalayas to divert the water before the U-turn (at Namcha Barwa) and direct it to the end of the bend.This would shorten the approximately 3,000 meters altitude drop, from 100 km to just 15 km. The hydropower potential could be used to pump water to northwest China over 800 km away. This multi-billion dollar project is scheduled to begin in 2009.The environmental and socio-economic consequences of this dam, and the diversion of water to northwestern China, are multiple and far reaching, not only for the Tibet region but also for India and Bangladesh. India and Bangladesh would be at the mercy of China for release of adequate amount of water during the dry season (as has happened to Pakistan due to bgahliar dam on river Chenab, Bangladesh with the Farakka dam on the Ganges), and for protection from floods during the rainy season. Precipitation in northern India (particularly in Assam-Meghalaya region) and Bangladesh is very high (80%) during the monsoonal months of June to December, and low (2%) during the remaining months of the year.China, in her own interests, could withhold water for power generation and irrigation during the dry season and release water during the rainy season, with catastrophic consequences for the lower-riparian countries. Further, this whole region would be starved of nutrient-rich sediments that enrich the soil, but which would be held up in the reservoir instead of reaching the downstream GBM delta.Further, if the Tsangpo project is implemented, Chinese scientists hold that this dam would alleviate floods and erosion in the Brahmaputra. But this makes little sense, since flooding could actually get worse due to relentless silting which, will be accelerated by the slowing down (reduced velocity) of the river flow. It may be noted that flooding normally happens not as much because of snow-melt waters in the Tsango section, but more from the monsoon rains from the southern side of the Himalayas carried down by the tributaries. On the other hand, Assam uses little water for irrigation purposes, and there is no commercial navigation in this section of the Brahmaputra in India. Therefore, Assam's economy might not be affected in any marked way, but the economy of Bangladesh would be affected very badly because its agriculture and inland water transportation are very much dependent upon the sustainable flow of the Brahmaputra. Bangladesh has reasons to be concerned about the Chinese design about the Tsangpo.In view of the above; there are still options for a solution by the concerned countries by taking the matter to the negotiating table. If a river water treaty could be signed between India and Pakistan despite their hostile relationship, in the early 1960s, which really destroyed the agriculture of Pakistan giving the 3 eastern river to India and now Chenab River is totally dried by India after building huge reservoir (Bughlar dam) in Indian held Kashmir too. A similar agreement can be negotiated between China, India and Bangladesh in order to ensure an environment friendly solution as well as sustainable futuristic regional development of the co-riparian countries. Water war is looming in Asia India Pakistan Bangladesh and china is facing each other on water issue and dispute. This can turn to be a full scale war because three of them are nuclear power state. Usman Karim based in Lahore Pakistan Lmno25@hotmail.com |
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