COMMENTS ON DR. NARGIS BANU'S PAPER AND
ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF TIPAIMUKH DAM.
PREAMBLE :
When we write in websites normally we do not write with utmost
seriousness, and we know the reason. Even though lapses/problems in
languages are acceptable, in the articles on serious science-based
subjects, ideas and thoughts by all means should be specific and
expression of intelligence. I did not have any intention to review
Environmental Geologist (Kansas, USA) Mr. Meer Husain's article
"CONSTRUCTION OF TIPAIMUKH DAM - A THREAT TO THE NATIONAL INTEREST OF
BANGLADESH". I did it because he requested me to go through that.
Accordingly I did and published my submission. However, the time I
went through his paper I was really shocked to see that a person with
such expertise uses "a high-school student's essay" collected from
source like 'wikianswer.com' in his paper. Then I felt tempted to
review Dr Nargis Banu's article "PROTECT PEOPLE AND NATURE FROM
TIPAIMUKH DAM", posted by the Bangladesh Expatriate Council. Dr.
Hasina Banu is an environmental scientist working with Sydney Water
Corporation, Australia. It was mentioned that the paper was presented
at a seminar at the Australian National University on July 3, 2009. By
disclosing this information the writer has given us a scope to know
what type of papers are presented in such seminars. This author has
experiences of such presentations at home and abroad, including
Australia.
COMMENTS OF PAPER BY DR. NARGIS BANU
01. DR. NARGIS BANU SAYS : At the beginning (probably Introduction,
where Abstract is missing) Dr. Nargis Banu narrated the background
story of Tipaimukh project. Here she mentioned two notable issues:
(Quoted).
(a) WITH THE CONSTRUCTION OF TIPAIMUKH DAM, INDIA WOULD BE DIVERTING
THE BARAK'S WATER FLOW FROM ITS NORTH TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST. IT WILL
HAVE ADVERSE IMPACTS ON NATURE AND LIVELIHOOD IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
DISTRICTS IN BANGLADESH.
(b) NOW INDIA HAS STARTED ANOTHER INTERVENTION ON THE INTERNATIONAL
RIVER BARAK AT TIPAIMUKH AND WILL CONSTRUCT A DAM AT FULERTAL (100
KILOMETRES DOWNSTREAM FROM TIPAIMUKH) BY 2012.
MY SUBMISSION : The truth is, India initiated construction of a
barrage at Fulertal (adjacent to Bangladesh border) long ago and the
same has now been abandoned. Now India has proposed for the
construction of a dam for the production of hydroelectricity at
Tipaimukh, a place located at a distance of over 150 kilometres. Dam
and Barrage are two different things. Where as withdrawal of water is
the essential objective of barrage, a dam may or may not have such
provision. India has already assured that there will be no withdrawal
of water. In such a situation a comment like "WITH THE CONSTRUCTION OF
TIPAIMUKH DAM, INDIA WOULD BE DIVERTING THE BARAK'S WATER FLOW FROM
ITS NORTH TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST" is misleading. And if this statement
is wrong, the comment based on it and expressed in the following line
i.e. (quoted) "IT WILL HAVE ADVERSE IMPACTS ON NATURE AND LIVELIHOOD
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN DISTRICTS IN BANGLADESH" is also wrong.
Those who are aware of the topography, soil condition and climate of
Monipur region might know that this region does not really need such
diversion of water for irrigation. Let me briefly explain the reason.
There may be two prominent reasons of depositing water in the
mountains or hills.
(a) In the high rocky mountains water is deposited in cavities and on
the picks as ice during the winter. In the summer season those melt
and flow down.
(b) The earth-made hills and mounds get wet during rains and release
that water as spring or fall, resulting in small canals (local name
"Chhara"). Depending of the size of the mounds, this water may flow
throughout the year.
While the main source of water in Barak river is the first type, that
locally used in Monipur region belongs to the second type.
02. DR. NARGIS BANU SAYS : The author has given some information to
prove that there is probability of severe earthquakes in this region.
MY SUBMISSION : It is an established fact that
(a) Monipur-Assam-Sylhet zone is highly earthquake prone,
(b) Large deposit of water at heights intensifies vibration during
earth-quake and
(c) Breaking of dam during such hazard would cause havoc.
It is obvious that when such a site is found economically feasible and
ecologically superior (in comparison with other means of generation of
electricity) for a hydro-electric project, the engineers would go for
the construction of a safe dam, even if it is costly. In case of
breakage of this dam the most affected country will be India due to
the following two major reasons :
(a) Failure of an extremely expensive project and
(b) Catastrophic flooding in the 150 kilometre-stretched land within India.
03. DR. NARGIS BANU SAYS : The author mentioned (quoted) "THE EXPERT
APPRAISAL COMMITTEE OF INDIA REVEALED THAT THE DESIGN OF THE DAM
CONTAINS MANY ERRORS, AND OMISSIONS, AND FALLS SHORT OF COMPLIANCE OF
STANDARDS SET BY THE SCIENTIFIC AND ACADEMIC COMMUNITY IN INDIA AND
THE WORLD".
MY SUBMISSION : The fact is, the design of Tipaimukh dam has not been
finalized. No one should wonder about such comments by various corners
(like, expert appraisal committee) during the preliminary stage of its
preparation.
04. DR. NARGIS BANU SAYS : (quoted) "INDIA CONDUCTED DETAILED STUDIES,
COMPLETED THE FINAL DESIGN AND ENVIRONMENT IMPACT ASSESSMENT WITHOUT
CONSULTATION WITH BANGLADESH AS A DOWNSTREAM STAKEHOLDER".
MY SUBMISSION : The statement like "COMPLETED THE FINAL DESIGN" is
definitely untrue.
05. DR. NARGIS BANU SAYS : (quoted) "INDIAN GOVERNMENT HAS NOT CLEARLY
STATED THE AMOUNTS OF WATER THAT WILL BE STOPPED OR DIVERTED WITH THE
CONSTRUCTION OF THE TIPAIMUKH DAM".
MY SUBMISSION : The author's statement is not only untrue, but also
misleading because the Indian government has stated that it would not
divert any water.
06. DR. NARGIS BANU SAYS : (quoted) "THE EROSION JUST DOWNSTREAM OF
THE TIPAIMUKH DAM WOULD BE EXCESSIVELY HIGH AND THIS EROSION WOULD
CONTINUE AS LONG AS HUNDRED KILOMETRES DOWNSTREAM OR MORE IN THE
SURMA-KUSHIARA SYSTEM".
MY SUBMISSION : This statement is wrong. As a matter of fact, after a
dam is constructed, the erosion in the down stream is reduced. Let me
explain the reason in brief. Soil erosion among other factors depends
upon on the velocity of water. The velocity depends among others on
two principal factors : (a) Quantity of water and (b) Inclination
(also known as gradient) of flow-path. After the construction of the
dam, the flow of water will be less in the lower region during monsoon
months (because the dam would reserve additional water) and the same
would increase a little during lean period. In fact the flow would
never attain the highest level that it had before the construction of
the dam.
As we mentioned, the flow also depends upon inclination of flow-path.
A dam constructed on a river considerably reduces this inclination.
The dam in fact utilizes the potential energy (in this case energy
stored in water due to gravitational force) of the water in the
reservoir. After the water starts its fresh journey from a
considerably lower level, it loses degree of inclination. Naturally it
loses velocity and eroding capability.
07. DR. NARGIS BANU SAYS : (quoted) "THE ... DEPOSITION .... WILL
RAISE THE OVERALL BED LEVEL OF THE RIVERS". About the affects of
silting she commented (01) "... AN EXTREME CASE IT WOULD BLOCK THE
MOUTH OF CERTAIN TRIBUTARIES, and (02) "WILL INDUCE THE AVERAGE
MONSOON FLOOD TO BECOME MODERATE TO SEVERE FLOOD IN THE SURMA-KUSHIARA
FLOODPLAIN".
MY SUBMISSION : All these are against the natural rule of science. The
fact is, the water carried by the river after the dam would create
less siltation because (i) It would erode less due to the reduced
velocity of water and (ii) The dam would arrest the entire
sedimentation particles coming from above.
08. DR. NARGIS BANU SAYS : (quoted) "ABOUT 71 PER CENT OF THE UPPER
SURMA-KUSHIARA BASIN AREA WOULD NO LONGER BE FLOODED. ... THE
KUSHIARA-BARDAL HAOR .... WOULD BECOME COMPLETELY DRY. THE KAWARDIGHI
HAOR .... LOSE AROUND 2,979 HA (26 PER CENT).".
MY SUBMISSION : If it really happens like it, then the people of this
area would think them fortunate to become free from flood hazard and
to get new land.
09. DR. NARGIS BANU SAYS : (quoted) " ... KUSHIARA WOULD CUT ITS
CONNECTION WITH ITS RIGHT BANK FLOODPLAIN ...... AND THIS PART WILL
BECOME 'RESERVOIR RIVER' RATHER THAN A MOST VALUABLE 'FLOODPLAIN
RIVER" (prophesy).
MY SUBMISSION : If this prophesy is based on the author's hypothesis
of "increased siltation", then I have explained why it would not take
place. However, those who have knowledge of soil structure,
inconsistency of river flow etc. of Bangladesh can guess that the new
situation might help in straightening the snaking and winding courses
of some rivers, thus generating a number of ox-bow lakes. This should
be taken as a positive contribution because the more land the rivers
would release the better it would be for the country.
10. DR. NARGIS BANU SAYS : (quoted) "MILLIONS OF PEOPLE ARE DEPENDENT
ON ... BARAK FOR AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES. THE DAM WOULD CAUSE THE
SURMA AND KUSHIARA TO RUN DRY FROM NOVEMBER TO MAY".
MY SUBMISSION : This is a wrong statement. The fact is, release of
submerged land due to lower level of water in the rainy season and
straightening of rivers may release more land, such that more people
may be engaged in agriculture. Before making such a statement the
author should have studied the basic principle on which a dam for
hydraulic project works. Let me explain briefly.
In hydro-electric project the available height of water in the
reservoir above the exit-hole is of extreme importance. For the
running of the generators water has to be constantly released from the
reservoir. The quantity of power generated is proportional to the
height of water in the reservoir. With normal discharge let the height
of water during the rainy season is (all arbitrary numbers) say, 100
Feet and that in the lean period (i.e. winter) say, 50 Feet. For
optimum production and economic feasibility the designers would have
to arrange generators to run by a height in between these two figures
(not necessarily the average). Let us say this number is 60 Feet. In
this case the generators would not be able to run at full swing unless
during winter nonths unless there is arrangement for storing
additional water in the reservoir. This indicates, what the
Tipai-authority would do for the smooth-running of their plant
throughout the year is, storing extra water during the peak period and
releasing the same during lean period. This is exactly what the
experts employed by Khaleda Zia's BNP government opined, and to which
any scientist or expert would have to agree.
N.B. STRAIGHTENING OF RIVER : It should be noted here that human
interference is essential for initial straightening of river. In the
country with soft soil, intermittent flow acts against straightening.
Once the rivers are cut straight and constant flow is ensured, river
may continue to flow in straight line. Such a program can release huge
land on both sides.
11. DR. NARGIS BANU SAYS : (quoted) "SHORTAGE OF WATER IN THESE FEW
MONTHS WOULD DECREASE THE BOOST OF GROUNDWATER. OVER THE YEARS THIS
WOULD LOWER THE GROUNDWATER LEVEL, WHICH IN TURN WOULD AFFECT ALL
DUGOUTS AND SHALLOW TUBE-WELLS. AGRICULTURE DEPENDENT ON BOTH SURFACE
AS WELL AS GROUNDWATER WOULD ALSO BE AFFECTED. ARABLE LAND WILL
DECREASE AND PRODUCTION OF CROPS WILL FALL, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
POVERTY".
MY SUBMISSION : After we know the report of the expert committee
formed by BNP government during FAP (Flood Action Plan) project, we
have to ignore her prophesies.
12. DR. NARGIS BANU IN HER PARAGRAPH ON "BIODIVERSITY AND ECOLOGY"
SAYS : (quoted) "CONSTRUCTION OF A HIGH DAM WILL OBSTRUCT THE
MIGRATORY PATH OF FISH AND OTHER AQUATIC FAUNA... (AND SILT,
"MICRONUTRIENTS")".
MY SUBMISSION : This comment on FISH AND OTHER AQUATIC FAUNA is
correct, the claim of preventing of "MICRONUTRIENTS" however, is not.
What is true is, as soon as the flowing mountain-river water would
come to a stand-still at the reservoir, there will be considerable
changes in the micro-nutrients, fish and other aquatic animals. The
dam would not arrest the micronutrients, even though it would not be
possible for larger fish to escape. However, nowadays it is made
possible by using fish-pass.
13. DR. NARGIS BANU SAYS : (quoted) "ABOVE IMPACTS WOULD DESTROY THE
NATURAL INTEGRITY OF THE ECOSYSTEM, LOSING RIVERINE HABITAT AND
SPECIES, AND A LACK OF ENRICHMENT OF LAND WITH THE NUTRIENT-FULL SILT.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO THE ULTIMATE DECLINE IN THE NATURAL PRODUCTIVITY OF
THE TWO MOST ABUNDANT RESOURCES OF BANGLADESH – LAND AND WATER".
MY SUBMISSION : From what I have explained above, the above statement
is wrong. However, even though we do not know what type of changes
would take place in the micro-nutrients, from the experience of Kaptai
dam we may guess, it would not be anything hazardous.
14. DR. NARGIS BANU IN HER PARAGRAPH "CLIMATE CHANGE" DAYS (quoted) :
"THE TIPAIMUKH DAM WILL PERMANENTLY SUBMERGE AN AREA OF 275.50 SQUARE
KILOMETRES IN INDIA".
MY SUBMISSION : This one is India's problem and they would consider it
in comparison with their gain from the project.
15. OTHERS : The author's claim on "DAM BREAK AND HUMAN CATASTROPHES"
has been answered earlier. In her paragraph on "WATER QUALITY" she
said : (quoted) "THE EROSION AND SEDIMENTATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE
TIPAIMUKH DAM WOULD BE EXCESSIVELY HIGH AND WOULD CONTINUE AS LONG AS
OVER 600 KILOMETRES DOWNSTREAM IN BANGLADESH. THIS EXCESSIVE EROSION
DOWNSTREAM OF THE DAM WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL SILTATION AND WATER
TURBIDITY IN THE SURMA-KUSHIARA SYSTEM. THESE WILL ADVERSELY AFFECT
THE WATER QUALITY OF THE ENTIRE SURMA-KUSHIARA-MEGHNA SYSTEM IN
BANGLADESH". I have already mentioned why the author's conceptions of
increased siltation and erosion are wrong.
She also said, "THE DAM WILL HAVE WARMING IMPACT DUE TO METHANE
DEGASSING FROM THE RESERVOIR". Those who are aware of the quantity of
degassing from (i) Huge marshy lands throughout the world, (ii)
Water-dipped rice fields and domestic cattle in Asia and Africa, (iii)
Rotten leaves and algae deposited in the oceans would just laugh to
hear about the "additional methane gas generated in 275 Square
Kilometre area". I failed to understand the comment "CARBON EMISSIONS
OF LARGE DAM CONSTRUCTION".
The author has mentioned some information in the paragraph "VIOLATION
OF LAWS AND AGREEMENT" about which I have nothing to say.
ADVANTAGES & DISADVANTAGES OF DAM FOR BANGLADESH :
DISADVANTAGES :
(i) Due to the construction of the dam Bangladesh would lose silt,
sand and fish coming through Barak river. By special arrangement and
design, however, the movement of fish can be retained.
ADVANTAGES : (i) Due to its construction it will be possible to
control flood due to Barak river and its tributaries in Sylhet region.
(ii) Considerable portion of land can be saved from inundation during
the rainy season.
(iii) During winter irrigation may be easier due to higher level of water.
(iv) There will be less silting in the tributaries of Barak river.
(iv) There will be less erosion in these rivers.
CONCLUSION : I am least worried about the construction of Tipaimukh
dam. It is a project by the Indian government, who would get cheap
electricity from it. Due to its construction Bangladesh would lose
silt, sand and fish coming through Barak river. With due cooperation
of the authorities however, Bangladesh (i) can achieve control over
flood by ensuring less flow of water during monsoon, (ii) may have
easy irrigation in the winter due to higher level of water etc. This
plain truth has been expressed by the expert committee employed by the
BNP government long ago. When motivated politicians (like those from
the opposition) shout against this project with all sorts of
unscientific, imaginary, biased and non-intelligent remarks, I
understand the reason. And I endeavour to expose the secret reason,
where possible. But when men of science express non-intelligent
remarks, I fail to understand the reason and feel the need for
protest.
I however, did not protest against Mr. Meer Hosain's writings. When he
expressed his response to one of my writing I just replied. In his
response he requested me to acquire knowledge on certain issues from
one of his writing. I went through that and was shocked to know that
he used the "answers" from computer-crazy school boys. Had I known it
earlier, I definitely would not have wasted my time. In course of
reading that I came across the article of Dr Nargis A Banu, an
environmental scientist working with Sydney Water Corporation,
Australia. I became specially interested because it was Posted by
Bangladesh expatriate council and earlier presented in a seminar at
the Australian National University.
I got interested in it due to my experiences of similar presentations
abroad including Australia. But after reading it, I came confused to
differentiate between a scientific paper and an essay written by the
column writer. I know how a column writer writes his essay. He picks
up a running or important issue, decides in which way he wants to
motivate his readers inclusive of common people, bureaucrats and
political leaders and then starts writing. In doing so he picks up
those data, information and comments that would help him to reach the
targeted destination and at the same time avoids all those might go
against. He cares least for honesty and most for fulfilling his
objective. Such an endeavour is completely quite different from a
scientific paper to be presented in international
seminars/conferences. After such a paper is presented it comes in the
discussion of the community of wise-people. And when published in the
website (as happened this time due to the courtesy of the Bangladesh
expatriate council) it comes within the domain of discussion of the
common people. Instantly the people know what type of papers are
presented in such seminars.
As I mentioned, scientific papers are different from the column
writer's essays. Such papers are revelations of facts. Here the
scientist does not keep any preconceived idea like "I will prove it,
or disprove that". The approach of the scientist will be, "I believe
this is the truth. So I shall try to prove it with the knowledge and
revelations so far made by science. In case I do not get defence from
these sources, it will be my hypothesis".
A scientists' deliberations or course of thought will be different
even from that of a university teacher. The teacher of a university is
supposed to teach generalized principles, applicable in general
throughout the world. In doing so, most of the time he needs to
simplify things. The teacher does not have the time or scope to show
how those principles apply in various conditions. The duty of the
researcher/scientist is to make threadbare analysis of the situation
in which those principles would apply and observe how the results
differ from the preconceived ones and why. Only such findings are
expected to be presented in scientific papers for international
seminars. From Dr Nargis A Banu's paper it seemed to me as if she
first made up her mind to show that "Tipaimukh dam would cause serious
damage for Bangladesh" (alike what the column writers do). And then
she started presenting information and analysis in favour of her
conviction, many of which were self contradictory. I find weakness in
her analysis also. For example, when someone visits the site of a dam,
he usually finds water falling down from a great height, resulting in
turbulence in muddy water below and then, water to rush away. That
might initiate the general concept of "erosion and sedimentation" in
the river. I have endeavoured to show in details, (i) why the river
starting after a dam loses flow of water, (ii) why the water loses
velocity and (iii) why this water carries less silt etc.
Once again I beg to state that I have little interest regarding the
construction of Tipaimukh. I know many important and essential
projects are not taken up because "those do not fulfil the personal
interests of the dishonest group among the concerned authorities". On
the other hand, a project that in no way is justified in the overall
condition of the country is taken, because it satisfies the above
condition. "Underground rail line in Dhaka city" is one such project.
Probably this project is going to be materialized because it is
capable of ensuring financial benefit for some.
For the above reason, when I write about Tipaimukh, I only endeavour
to show the science-based truth to the best of my knowledge and
experience. I believe, the scientists and experts should continue in
their predestined track, which is so pure and true, and which is so
different from those of the politicians and column writers. Seeing
"column writers' essays" as scientific papers is really painful.
Lastly I express my sorrow to those who may be hurt due to my writing.
Prof. (on LPR) Bijon B. Sarma, Khulna University. Bangladesh.
--
Prof. Bijon Behari Sarma
------------------------------------
****************************************************
Mukto Mona plans for a Grand Darwin Day Celebration:
Call For Articles:
http://mukto-mona.com/wordpress/?p=68
http://mukto-mona.com/banga_blog/?p=585
****************************************************
VISIT MUKTO-MONA WEB-SITE : http://www.mukto-mona.com/
****************************************************
"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it".
-Beatrice Hall [pseudonym: S.G. Tallentyre], 190Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/mukto-mona/
<*> Your email settings:
Individual Email | Traditional
<*> To change settings online go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/mukto-mona/join
(Yahoo! ID required)
<*> To change settings via email:
mailto:mukto-mona-digest@yahoogroups.com
mailto:mukto-mona-fullfeatured@yahoogroups.com
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
mukto-mona-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/