Shifting paradigms of foreign policy With a visible move towards the Indo-US axis, Bangladesh may find itself walking on a precarious tightrope A PROBE report Bangladesh is walking the tightrope, as far as its foreign policy is concerned. In recent years there has been a distinct shifting in the paradigms of the country's foreign policy and the shift has become sharper since the installation of the present Awami League government. The country has distinctly veered towards the Indo-US axis, the question remaining – will Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her motley crew be able to pull of this precarious balancing act? Are they that skillful in the art of juggling? Hasina may be an old hand in the game, but what of her nouveau cabinet colleagues? East to West The increase of US influence at the governance level in Bangladesh was visible from the time of the pre-caretaker BNP government. While Begum Khaleda Zia and her team had ostensibly adopted a 'Look East' policy favouring China in its, economic, defence and diplomatic dealings, it had started to drift away from China. This was illustrated in the setting up of a Taiwan office in the capital city of Dhaka, in clear defiance to China. Though it was closed down, the incident had generated enough heat and the matter probably still rankles in the Chinese mind. In a more recent development, it was reported that a certain senior official of Bangladesh's Foreign Office had told reporters that the country would not be procuring military hardware from China. Why this break in the long-standing norm of purchasing arms and ammunition from China? The explanation was that, in the event of a war between Bangladesh and Myanmar, which is growing in likelihood, China would inevitably put a cap on its sales of military hardware to Bangladesh and Bangladesh would find itself without the vital backup support. America appears The US, in the meantime, is entering the scene in a relatively big way. In fact, from the time of the caretaker government, its presence has been tangible. There have been a series of US-Bangladesh joint military exercises, high level visits and so on. As part of his heightened interest of US in Bangladesh, the Commander of the US Seventh Fleet is due to visit in October this year. This Pacific Commander has scheduled a visit round about the same time. Bangladesh Enterprise Institute (BEI) is also organising a high profile seminar on civil-military relations, with US participation. In another significant step, US Ambassador in Bangladesh, James F Moriaty, issued statement recently, to the effect that the US had been mistaken in opposing Bangladesh's independence struggle in 1971. This statement came at a time when Senator Edward Kennedy had passed away, his death bringing back memories of the support he had generated among the American public of Bangladesh fight for freedom.. In turn, Bangladesh has been taking some important foreign policy decisions which to all appearances are heavily swayed by US influence. For example, the souring of relations with Myanmar is certainly a plus point for the US lobby. Over the years, the heavy influx of Rohingya refugees across the border from Myanmar into Bangladesh territory, along with the inevitable baggage of illegal arms, drugs and crime, never evoked more than the expected level of tension between the two countries. Now, however, the border is taut with tension and troops are being amassed on both sides of the border. Some political observers even report of the Bangladesh administration, with US prompting, getting Rohingya splinter groups organised under one umbrella. This, they say, is just another an American attempt of putting pressure on Myanmar's military junta. The US, of course, understands full well that all is not hunky-dory. Ground reality shows that in the past the Bangladesh government has gone all out to please and placate the superpower, but when it comes to delivering the goods, popular policy prevails. Sheikh Hasina, after all, is a nationalist. She won't go against national interests. She has displayed adroit footwork in the past where international diplomacy is concerned. The deep-sea port is a point in hand. Much to the US satisfaction, she had given the go ahead to the Stevedoring Services of America (SSA) for the port. However, fierce demonstrations and protest organised by Chittagong's influential Mayor Mohiuddin, soon put paid to the SSA deal, this time much to US frustration. Was Mohiuddin then more powerful than Hasina? Of course not, say analysts, this was all a clever manipulation on Hasina's part. He himself has claimed that he did nothing without directives from the high command. So Hasina is quite adept at veering away from commitments when it comes to delivery time. "She may be labelled pro-this or pro-that," says an observer, "but at the end of the day, it is Bangladesh that matters. That is what her track record seems to say so far." The India factor India has always loomed large in Bangladesh's foreign policy. This is only natural as being such a large and powerful nation, it envelopes Bangladesh almost from all sides. However, there is also a general belief that a strong nexus exists between India and the Awami League government and the belief is not unfounded. Historical ties are hard to sever. The rapid shift in foreign policy towards India has also been palpable since the take-over by the military-backed caretaker government and followed up by the present government. India's influence has steadily gained ground. It has always been there, but now perhaps it is more open. It was more covert than overt in the past. This proximity with India throws open a Pandora's Box of unresolved issues, both contentious and otherwise. The issues being laid on the table now include transit, extradition treaty, power and more. Irritants are now being termed as "areas of mutual interest". How far the "mutual" part of the term stands is yet to be seen. Bangladesh may be the smaller neighbour, but its generosity is large. It is granting "temporary" use of Ashuganj river port to India. How is "temporary" measured is again t be seen. There are many more matters being sorted out. During her recent India visit, Foreign Minister Dipu Moni's smile said it all. This strengthening of ties with India spells weakening of relations with China. And here again the Myanmar factor enters the picture. Bangladesh and India are simultaneously preparing for conflict with Myanmar and China respectively. The two countries are adopting very similar preparations -- Bangladesh has been renovating its long-abandoned airfields in Lalmonirhat and Shamshenagar and India its long forgotten airfields In Arunachal. While Bangladesh is deploying troops along the border with Myanmar, India amasses its troops at Arunachal, on the border with China. And China is also making its own moves. Clash of interests? Bangladesh seems to be playing a clever, and dangerous, game of keeping both the US and India happy. But how long can it remain in the good books of both? After all, as long as US and India's interests converge, things are fine. But if they conflict, Bangladesh can find itself in a fix. When the time to choose does eventually arrive, what will Bangladesh do? Past records, particularly of the Awami League government, show that when it comes to India-Us interests, India invariably gains the upper hand. The energy factor Oil and gas will become a glaring issue in the near future. In fact, it already has. The recent hartal (strike) called by the Committee for the Protection of Oil, Gas and Port, and the assault on Anu Mohammed, seem deliberate moves to highlight the issue and magnify the sector. The US is none to pleased that the Bangladesh government is still dragging its feet on awarding the gas blocks to US companies. However, all was relatively quiet on this front when, out of the blue, Anu Mohammed was attacked and then the hartal was called. The hartal was totally unsuccessful, but the media spared no pains to play it up and give it undue coverage. It all seems to be very well orchestrated. Many leftist/socialists/Marxists organisations and individuals are active to prevent the USA from making a foothold in the Bay of Bengal. Some of them are known to be anti-US (anti imperialists) and friendly towards India. However, they are doing it for overtly patriotic reasons - not for the satisfaction of the Indians who had claimed a large part of offshore area in Bay which Bangladesh considers as the legitimate owner. But it is also a fact that India objected formally to Bangladesh on its offshore exploration before the maritime boundary between the countries is demarcated. However, India disregards any such objection from Bangladesh and already awarded exploration rights to SANTOS in Bay bordering Bangladesh. Interestingly even India is allowing export of gas when they could not buy it from the IOC. The government is probably playing a cat and mouse game with USA. It has ''conditionally'' approved two IOCs to explore in Bay while fomenting a popular case against it. There is no other explanation for the recent police excess against the peaceful demonstration and the unusual brutality on Prof. Anu Muhammad. Mr. Rashed Khan Menon, MP,a former Marxist and now a member of the ruling government from the Workers' Party, delivered a spirited speech on the issue in the Parliament, demanding cancellation of the deal with the two IOCs. It is quite possible that soon the two IOCs would be hesitating to come to a troubled turf. The case of Fulbari coal mine and the Asia Energy (now Global Coal Management) is not going to happen with the IOCs. Asia Energy is trapped with its investment and hoping that government can not ask them to leave without proper compensation as per contractual obligation. Nevertheless, it is quite possible that a section, not the whole administration, is trying to please the Indians. The question is - where does the PM stand? A kind of déjà vu - remember AL government giving SSA for construction of a private terminal in Chittagong and the fierce resistance by Chittagong Mayor which made SSA leave the country. Energy experts scoff moves by Anu Mohammed and the other quarters involved in opposing the handing over of gas blocks. They say that the issue is not whether to hand over the gas blocks or not, the actual issue is ownership of the territory where the blocks lie. The very territory remains disputed. Metaphorically speaking, an analyst points out, "When a plot of land is disputed, how can I even start planning on whether to construct a high-rise building and rent it out or build a bungalow to live in myself?" So Bangladesh first needs to establish its hold on the land, an area where people like Anu Mohammed prefer to remain silent, and then decide whether to hand over the blocks or not. Even Blacks 10 and 11 which are dead centre of the map are reportedly "disputed". All this needs to be sorted out fast. So rather than calling hartals and spewing out rhetoric, attention needs to be drawn to these issues. In the past too, the BNP government failed to take any concrete decision regarding oil and gas. This is a vital sector where Indian and US interests clash and Bangladesh finds itself wedged between a rock and a hard place. Diplomatic dealings So how is Awami League going to extract itself from this diplomatic dilemma? On the home front, it really has no worries. With BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami both politically weak at the moment, the government has no concerns of opposition from within the country. In fact, with the opposition effectively cuffed and gagged, this is prime time to strike while the iron is hot. Enjoying an overwhelming majority in parliament, it will be relatively easy for the government to take bold decisions on several sensitive issues. Upon returning from her Indian trip, Dr. Dipu Moni has packed her bags once again and is off to the States, spouse and offspring in tow. She is likely to brief the US State Department about her Indian trip and get their nod on various matters undertaken. After Eid, Sheikh Hasina will be visiting the US at the invitation of President Obama. She will be attending a gathering of leaders from countries participating in the UN peacekeeping force. On that platform, Hasina will hardly get a chance to speak on the sensitive issues involving the trilateral interests of India, Bangladesh and the US, so Dipu Moni is a sort of advanced party to voice her views. Waters run deep Back to US interests, the deep sea port comes back into focus. In his recent low-key visit from the US to Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina's foreign affairs advisor US Gauhar Rizvi is said to have dealt with this issue. He left as silently as he came, refusing any sort of protocol and special state facilities. However, on an unofficial front, reports have it that his brother and businessman Aziz Khan have formed a company for setting up the container port. This remains a rumour, albeit a very strong one. Balancing act As Bangladesh goes ahead with this balancing act, India seems to be quite smug in its confidence of getting an upper hand. Regional experts, though, insist that US and China must be taken into cognizance. Despite all said and done, China is getting a significant amount of business in Bangladesh at present, pocketing several major construction projects. These are critical times. Hasina may be an accomplished player when it comes to regional and international relations, but does she have adequate back up in her cabinet? Can the political set-up of her government, void of wily old veterans, stand up to the challenge? Security remains another sector of concern. This is not just the security of Bangladesh alone, as a sovereign nation. There are security concerns for the Prime Minister as well as for other high profile political leaders. The shifting paradigm of Bangladesh's foreign policy is a critical issue. The nation can either make it or break it. All depends on the adroitness of the leadership. http://www.probenewsmagazine.com/index.php?index=2&contentId=5510 |
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