[ALOCHONA] Cash is king for the short term and stock/equity is king for the long term (minimum 5 yrs)

Dear All,

 

I like to put few scenarios about current USA and Bangladesh economy.

 

Scenario for USA: 

 

Current USA economy will be worst next year even though we see rise in the stock market values.  Real fundamentals are really weak due to the huge country debt, continue expenditures into two wars, continue jobless rate, more housing foreclurures in the next year, and lack of credits from the banks. 

 

I would recommend keep your cash in hand untill a stable situation comes in USA which will take 4-5 years per my prediction.  I also urge people to invest in the stable sector like Pharmaceuticals in USA, China, India and Bangladesh.  This is the only sector that will florish because of huge shortage of health care and medicinces with world population reaching to 6.5 Billion.

 

Scenario for Bangladesh:

 

Bangladesh may have done well in this recession compare to other countries, however next 4-5 years are critical for Bangladesh to make it right.  Population stands at 160 Million and will continue to grow to 300 Million by 2030.  Only sector  that has brought more jobs to Bangladesh is the germants industries and may not last too long due to the worst economical condition in USA and EU.  NRB and most of Bangladeshi have invested heavly in the Real Estate sector for the long time which stands on sands as per my own personnal oponion.  There is no fundamentals to have high Real Estate price in Bangladesh except everbody wants to live in Dhaka.  Any natural disaster in Dhaka can destroy 70% of its curent building structures,  I hope it never happens.

 

So the bottom line is that NRB and Bangladeshi should start investing stable sector like Pharmaceuticals and ICT to have a good growth of their investment.  Bangledesh has a potential to create 500K high paid jobs and export of more than US$10 Billion medicines within 5 years if policies are changed to have greater investment access in the pharmaceuticals sector. 

 

Amreteck Pharma LLC is working with BD Govt to materialize a plan for the pharmaceuticals sector to meet the traget goals.  I also urge NRB and Bangladeshi investors to shy away from Real Estate sector and invest in the sectors like Pharmaceuticals and ICT in Bangladesh.  This will be a win win situation for the both investors and Bangladesh.

 

Amreteck Pharma (www.amreteckpharma.com) plans to open few seminars to various countries to educate people about the opportunity to invest in the pharmaceuticals sector in Bangladesh.  Visit www.amreteckpharma.com for more information.

 

Regards,

M. M. Chowdhury, USA

----- Forwarded Message ----
From: M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@yahoo.com>
To: cgmpservices@yahoo.com
Sent: Tue, October 20, 2009 12:00:06 PM
Subject: Why USA won't able to get out of this financial mess

Dear All, I still think that people are suffering especially in the USA for this perfect financial mess and there is very few options left to get out from this monster financial storm.  I stand with my earlier comments "Why USA won't able to get of this financial mess". Even though we see rise in stock market based on phony news and cost cutting, but not with any real revenue increase.  I am not sure how long you will see this rise, but we should follow the fundamentals and invest responsible. I also recommend NBR that they should think wisely and think to invest in Bangladesh which could make their investment return higher than other options that we have in USA.  I like people to stay away from Real Estate (USA & Bangladesh) and focus on Industrial sectors which have higher sustainable and potential to get higher and long term profits. There are few investment opportunities in Bangladesh and Pharmaceuticals is one of them.  I am very optimistic in this sector if current BD Govt pays attention and listen industries expert like us to help this sector in Bangladesh. Think wisely and investment prudently. Note:  There also have a option to invest in Amreteck Pharma,USA to implement few projects in the South East countries. Regards, M. M. Chowdhury, ChE, Validation & GMP Expert Amreteck Pharma LLC, USA Liaison Offices in Bangladesh, India & UK www.amreteckpharma.com --- On Tue, 1/20/09, M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@yahoo.com> wrote: From: M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu) <cgmpservices@yahoo.com> Subject: [khabor.com] Why USA won't able to get out of this financial mess To: cgmpservices@yahoo.com Date: Tuesday, January 20, 2009, 12:41 PM Dear All,   I think and believe that we in USA are concern like any others about financial impact in USA and rest of the world and where this will lead us in the next 8 years.  I congratulate President Obama for taking the USA leadership but I am cautious like others even though I have campaign for Obama among Bangladeshi Community in USA.   Let's see the scenario why USA is in this position which is very different than 1930's and what steps should be taken for the incremental improvement.   Reasons for this mess   1) More than $20T, start with Trillion dollars of investors money has been lost in the last 12 months including personal 401K money. So the people confidence in companies is lower than ever.   2) More than 500,000 jobs have been cut per month by companies in USA, if it's continue then at the end of 2009 total 6 million jobs will be lost.  Adding 2 million jobs already have been lost in the last 24 months.  This is creating a nightmare for the consumers to spend  discretionary money.   3) Two third of the economy are depended on consumer spending,  when consumer stopped buying like before,  companies can not make money, their stocks goes down and companies start laying off to make baseline profit for the company.  This is called a cycle of uncertainty.   4) Biggest problem is that USA consumers has borrowed two times of their house worth for the last 5 years.  For example, if a house price is $100K in 1999, it went up to $300K in 2006, so extra $200K was borrowed from foreign countries to mortgage people's houses in USA.  Therefore, deficit went over the roof.  If this is continued,  few wealthy countries might not be interested to invest in USA like before because losing confidence into USA economy and their investment returns.   5) Once people lost jobs, they can not afford to pay high mortgage which they could not afford at the first place.  US Govt can not pay everybody extra interest for the mortgage they owe to banks.  This might come over $10T, start with Trillion.   6) Once companies make less money, the Govt tax collection also becomes low.  So more deficit for USA.  Intake is higher than delivery.   7) USA does not have leadership of many technologies like before, so USA has more competitors than before i.e. China and India.   8) More liability for baby boomers in years ahead, means need more money to take care her citizens like Social Security and Medicare.   9) Iraq war alone costs USA close to $1T and need another $1.2T to take care veterans health and financial liabilities.   10) Dollar might go down compare to others currency once foreign countries start withdraw their investment or stopped new investment in USA, i.e.  stop buying USA Bond.   Options to way of of this mess:   So what do USA have now?  President Obama's sweet talks might not bring much fruits unless he can show leadership and put new policies in place very quickly, so situation does not get out of control.  I personally think that President Obama should do the following for the love of this country.   1)  President Obama should provide executive order to cut military budget of $465B to only $50B.  Bring all military installation back home unless foreign countries provide the bill.   2) Provide middle class incentives as soon as possible.   3) Stop giving big money to banks but give direct loan to consumers from Govt Treasure.  I know it does not sound Capitalist,  but US Govt does not have any other option.  For example,  If I know that this consumer will not able to pay back my money,  I won't make loan to him even I get pressured from Govt unless Govt takes all the toxic assets.  Same situation, Banks are not lending even they got US Govt money.  Banks know consumers do not have enough money or may lose job soon whichever is first.   4) Provide stimulate money if there is any Corrective and Preventive Action (CAPA) in place for the new projects which will create jobs.   I hope and pray US gets out of this mess but I am very pessimistic now based on the scenario I have presented you here, unless miracle happens in USA.   God bless USA and her people.   Regards, M. M. Chowdhury (Mithu), Virginia, USA www.amreteckpharma. com

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[Disclaimer: ALOCHONA Management is not liable for information contained in this message. The author takes full responsibility.]
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