Hasina-Singh summit ends with zero-sum outcome M. Shahidul Islam With all the grandiose designs that India harbours to re-shape the geopolitical destiny of the continent of Asia, any Bangladeshi leader is bound to have a heart- sinking feeling of imminent danger while meeting its counterpart in Delhi. That is what has made the just concluded visit to India of PM Sheikh Hasina a sensitive and dreadful one. But, the second- time- Prime Minister seems to have weathered it quite well, without conceding much to our voracious neighbour, and, bringing home even much little in return. On a more positive tone, she looked cool, composed, curious and someone in control over things; perhaps upon knowing that there was no ice-breaker to change things substantively. Pauperized protocol That is why, contrary to wild fears of her capitulating to ?unreasonable? Indian demands, the visit ended up with a zero-sum outcome. In game theory, a zero-sum outcome is described of a situation in which one participant?s gain or loss is exactly balanced by the losses or gains of the other. If the total gains of the participants are added up, and the total losses are subtracted, they sums to zero. That also explains why the visit kicked off with a subtle snub, the Bangladesh PM not being treated as per the deserved protocol upon her landing at Delhi?s Indira Gandhi International Airport on January 10. Much to the surprise of observers, the PM was received at the airport by Indian Minister of State for External Affairs, Preneet Kaur, and Foreign Secretary, Nirupama Rao, which looked debasing for a leader representing 150 million people. This ?pauperized posture? was least expected when the visit has been showcased as a ?ground breaking? one by many pundits and policy makers in both countries. Observers felt dismayed by this intentionally created protocol hiccup, especially due to the visit occurring following the Bangladesh PM?s risky and gutsy venture in December 2009 to hand over to India one of Delhi?s most wanted fugitives, Arabinda Rajkhowa, chairman of the outlawed United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), along with the outfit?s deputy commander-in-chief, Raju Baruah, and at least five other senior aides. Also, in a synchronized gesture to curry Indian favour prior to the visit, India?s Bharti Airtel (BA) was accorded on January 9 an approval from Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC) to buy a controlling 70% stake in Bangladesh?s Warid Telecom that has 2.7 million customers, with 5.3% market share. In return, the BA has reportedly declared to invest $300 million on upgrading Warid?s network. Intent rebuffed Although a summit between two leaders does not achieve much unless it aims to do so prior to the leaders? face to face interactions, the visit displayed the serious intent of Sheikh Hasina to accord higher priority to India in regional politics. The very fact that she has chosen Delhi ahead of Beijing as her first regional destination speaks volume about her mindset and loyalty. For, upon coming to power in 1996, Hasina decided to visit Beijing first in order to neutralize a lingering negative image of the regime of her father who faced serious internal oppositions due to a ?distinctly pro-Indian? foreign policy stance, something many analysts characterized as being devoid of the required tact and the talisman that were much needed in balancing a new nation?s foreign policy. But that sincere intent got rebuffed in kind in the wake of this visit. Not only Delhi failed to rein in its forces at the border, its BSF went virtually berserk against unarmed Bangladeshis. Within hours of the PM?s landing at Delhi airport, two Bangladeshi cattle traders were killed by BSF on January 10 in Chapainawabganj and Benapole. Then, on Januray 12, while the PM busied herself in parlaying with various segments of state luminaries in Delhi, BSF killed another Bangladeshi cattle trader at Benapole border and took away his body. Unfortunately, the summit made no dent in obtaining an assurance to rein in such human rights abuses by Indian border forces. Especially since the AL?s coming to power early this year, there were 308 incidents of attacks by the BSF on innocent Bangladeshis at the border, resulting in 96 people killed, 79 injured, 25 kidnapped and 92 remaining as yet lost. Such occurrences sour people to people ties and impact bilateral interactions. Clever moves Despite that, PM did her best to show a tolerant and brave face to her Indian hosts, according to people who travelled with her and the imagery seen in TV and newspaper exposures. In the game of diplomacy, often each side is aware of the inner minds of the other. This was no exception and the Indian moves were palpably heuristic. Such consternations notwithstanding, the PM did obtain a promise from Delhi of US$1 billion worth of line of credit in infrastructure building, which experts say remains contingent upon Bangladesh?s consent in collaborations in developing railways and other infrastructures to facilitate transportations of Indian goods and services from the mainland to the landlocked North Eastern provinces via Bangladesh. In return, however, she had conceded little substantive, deferring the decision to allow India the permit to use the Ashugonj port to subsequent discussions. This was a deft move. It also implied two particular things for certain. First, India must show that its power generation project in neighbouring state of Tripura will meet the dual requirements of both nations, and, Delhi?s promise to allow Bangladesh the promised corridor to Nepal and Bhutan will be complied with. Paltry progress All these made the visit look grand on paper but virtually ritual in substance, especially it yielding little in terms of immediately- accruable economic benefits. The huge army of business delegation that had accompanied the PM in order to foster greater economic ties between the two neighbours felt frustrated by the Indian decision to allow only 47 items of commodities from the voluminous negative list of Bangladeshi products, despite Bangladesh insisting for years to obtain duty-free access to Indian market of a selective 232 products in particular, in order to reduce the Himalayan trade imbalance that lies heavily in Indian favour, overshooting well past $3 billion mark lately. As well, the long-awaited Teesta water sharing deal did not receive any serious significance in the summit level discussions, according to sources. They say, although the two PM discussed the pending border demarcation matter relating to yet unmarked 6.1-km stretch of the 4,096 km border, ?enclaves? and ?adverse possessions? (pockets in each country with nationals of the other) ? and have exchanged lists of such enclaves once again?no progress has been made in that particular front either, excepting promises and assurances to continue further discussion at bilateral levels. Yet, there was no dearth of solace and smiling on either side, despite the visit being virtually a ceremonial one in nature. The Indian Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee termed the Bangladesh PM?s visit a high point of relations between the two countries, observing, ?This is a historic visit; it marks a new era in Indo-Bangladesh relations.? He added, ?For the first time, Dhaka understands our concerns and we understand theirs.? That mutual understanding has ripened since the army-backed caretaker regime jumped into the Indian bandwagon in 2007 to jointly fight radicalism and extremism. And, that is what has led to the conclusion of three agreements on January 11 by the two PMs. The agreements relate to (1) mutual legal assistance in criminal matters, (2) transfer of sentenced prisoners, and (3) combating international terrorism, organised crime and illicit drug trafficking. The two Memorandums of Understanding (MoU) include (1) framework on exchange of electricity, and (2) cultural collaborations. Viewed closely, the signed MoUs too seem loaded with lots of ifs and buts. For instance, under the collaborative arrangement to import electricity, Bangladesh would buy 500 MW of electricity from India to start with, and, by 2012, the cap can be raised to 1200 MW. Official sources say, Bangladesh?s state-owned Power Grid Company and Indian state-run Power Grid Corporation will jointly set up transmission lines to carry the power to the Bangladesh grid, for which India needs access to our port facilities and Dhaka needs lots of money. That also proves that the prospect of any viable power generation and sharing remains contingent upon India?s construction of the proposed power generation centre in the power-starve Tripura state which currently imports from Bhutan about 1400 MW of electricity to meet its peak hour shortfall, and Dhaka?s ability to build commensurable infrastructure and conduit to share the fruit. Standing by Delhi at UN However, in a brilliant stroke of classical diplomacy, the PM has offered her government?s support to India?s candidature for the permanent membership of the UN Security Council and promised to lend support to Delhi in the Indian candidature for a non-permanent seat of the UNSC for 2011-2012. ?Responding to the prime minister of India, the prime minister of Bangladesh conveyed her country?s support in principle for India?s candidature for the permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council as and when the reform of the UN Security Council is achieved,? says a joint statement. Dirty politics The killing of three more innocent Bangladeshis during the visit aside, a number of other detractions and dirty politics dogged the visit, the most prominent among which was the disclosure in Dhaka by the ruling party secretary general, Syed Ashraful Islam, that former Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf has had a meeting in Dhaka with the ULFA leader Anup Chetia, in July 2002, which was facilitated by then prime minister Khaleda Zia. The alleged meeting, the veracity of which was challenged instantly by BNP leaders, took place in Musharraf?s hotel room while the latter visited Dhaka. This was a dirty politics that the AL should have avoided, unless the information came as a design to do so in the wake of PM?s Delhi visit. Chetia, incumbent secretary general of ULFA, remains detained in a Bangladesh jail since his arrest in 1998, and, his handover to India is the most coveted aim of Delhi at this very moment, especially ULFA?s military commander, Paresh Barua, reportedly being in China. Yet, India may not get Chetia in the manner it got the possession of the seven other ULFA leaders who had recently been ?kidnapped? from Dhaka by, according to a number of sources, Indian special force. Anup Chetia is a refugee claimant, which is his legal forte, and his ultimate disposition relies on Bangladesh?s final decision to deport him from the country. Even when such a decision is made, according to the concerned Geneva Convention (1951) relating to fate of refugees seeking protection in a third country - of which Bangladesh is a signatory - one particular clause of that Convention circumvents Dhaka?s option to handover him to India. |
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