Better ties with Beijing to help national interest
M. Shahidul Islam
Is it confusion, obfuscation, or a genuine attempt to remain equidistant from the mutually antagonistic regional giants like China and India?
For sure, the dispatch to Delhi of the army chief Gen. Abdul Mubin just days before the PM headed for China seemed naivety. It has apparently undercut a lot of the genuineness off the Dhaka-Beijing goodwill and fraternity. However, many say it is the way the present regime wants to juggle between things while quick and unpredictable moves keep observers baffling.
For sure, the dispatch to Delhi of the army chief Gen. Abdul Mubin just days before the PM headed for China seemed naivety. It has apparently undercut a lot of the genuineness off the Dhaka-Beijing goodwill and fraternity. However, many say it is the way the present regime wants to juggle between things while quick and unpredictable moves keep observers baffling.
Perplexities aside, Sheikh Hasina headed for Beijing at a time when the Chinese economy managed to pull up a spectacular 10.7 percent growth when most of the OECD economies remained busy in grappling with high rates of unemployment and swelling deficits to fend off an atrocious, prolonged recession.
If that is what makes China a regional and global leader, our PM had better be mindful of that reality. Sources close to her claim she is. The taste will be in the pudding.
And, she better be ready to scale through a tight rope as the visit poses the most robust foreign policy challenge before her. Under the prevailing reality of global geo-economics and geo-politics, better ties with Beijing will surely be a boon for our national pride and economic prosperity. A lot is at stake with China.
And, she better be ready to scale through a tight rope as the visit poses the most robust foreign policy challenge before her. Under the prevailing reality of global geo-economics and geo-politics, better ties with Beijing will surely be a boon for our national pride and economic prosperity. A lot is at stake with China.
Since 2006, China emerged as the largest source of import for Bangladesh, replacing India for the first time. The visit takes place when our import payment stood at US$8.08 billion in the first five months of FY2009-10 (July09-June10) while earnings from export reached only $6.11 billion during the same period. Much of those declining trends could improve sooner with enhanced cooperation from Beijing.
Besides, in 2009, two-way trade between Dhaka and Beijing reached $4.6 billion, leaving Dhaka at a trailing disadvantage of $3.5 billion deficit with China alone. Sources say, PM wants to shore up that deficiency during the visit by obtaining at least $3 billion worth of investment commitment in bridge construction, setting up a fertilized factory, etc. PM's agenda also includes seeking a waiver of $800 million loan.
Deep sea port
The most important aspect of the visit will be the PM's on site inspection of Kunming on March 20, the capital of the southern Yunnan province, from where will flow a rail link via Myanmar to reach Bangladesh. Once commissioned, this regional connectivity will enable southern China to a to-be-built deep sea port in Chittagong which China could help construct at a cost of $8.7 billion. The new port will raise bulk cargo handling capacity to 100 million tonnes and container handling to 3.0 million tones.
Deep sea port
The most important aspect of the visit will be the PM's on site inspection of Kunming on March 20, the capital of the southern Yunnan province, from where will flow a rail link via Myanmar to reach Bangladesh. Once commissioned, this regional connectivity will enable southern China to a to-be-built deep sea port in Chittagong which China could help construct at a cost of $8.7 billion. The new port will raise bulk cargo handling capacity to 100 million tonnes and container handling to 3.0 million tones.
That aside, whatever depressive message the visit to India of the army chief has emitted, the foreign office tried to choreograph its diplomatic dancing totally differently prior to Sheikh Hasina's China visit. Foreign Minister Dipu Moni said on March 14, "It will be a great achievement if China agrees to use our Chittagong port, which we want to develop into a regional commercial hub by building a deep-sea port in the Bay of Bengal."
The reciprocity from the other side seemed almost in sync and equally matching. "Developing the port is a very important part of China's co-operation with Bangladesh, and China is aware of its strategic significance," said Zhao Gancheng, director of South Asia Studies at the government-supported Shanghai Institute for International Studies.
"So far, the hardware is far from sufficient. But Bangladesh wants to develop the port in a more extensive way, and wants more co-operation with Chinese companies," Zhao added.
The Malacca dilemma
Zhao made some other remarkable observations. "While there is currently no oil pipeline running to Bangladesh (from China), access to Chittagong will be of greater importance in the future when this infrastructure is put in place," he said, adding, "With the development of China's transportation of goods and energy in the Indian Ocean, China will certainly continue to attach more importance to this (Chittagong) port."
"So far, the hardware is far from sufficient. But Bangladesh wants to develop the port in a more extensive way, and wants more co-operation with Chinese companies," Zhao added.
The Malacca dilemma
Zhao made some other remarkable observations. "While there is currently no oil pipeline running to Bangladesh (from China), access to Chittagong will be of greater importance in the future when this infrastructure is put in place," he said, adding, "With the development of China's transportation of goods and energy in the Indian Ocean, China will certainly continue to attach more importance to this (Chittagong) port."
For years, China has quested for greater access to Indian Ocean ports with focused dexterity. President Hu Jintao even termed China's deep sea predicaments as "Malacca Dilemma", obliquely referring to the country's helpless dependence on the narrow Malacca Straits through which over 80 per cent of China's oil supplies flow, but which poses a dangerous security threat at the same time due to increased Indo-US naval presence and tighter monitoring of the area by their forces.
To overcome this limbo, China began construction of a 771-km pipeline in November 2009 to connect Ruili, in Yunnan, with Maday Island in Myanmar. If our PM can hit the right chord, two major Chinese oil companies are likely to invest money in extending that pipeline up to Chittagong port area.
Military hardware
Purchase of military hardware from China may also come up in the discussion during the visit, claim sources, while existing defence procurement and collaboration deals are likely to get revisited, spruced up and updated.
Sources say, PM's defence related shopping list includes spare parts and munitions for Chinese made artillery guns, fighter jets, missiles, battle tanks and APCs currently being used by Bangladesh armed forces.
To overcome this limbo, China began construction of a 771-km pipeline in November 2009 to connect Ruili, in Yunnan, with Maday Island in Myanmar. If our PM can hit the right chord, two major Chinese oil companies are likely to invest money in extending that pipeline up to Chittagong port area.
Military hardware
Purchase of military hardware from China may also come up in the discussion during the visit, claim sources, while existing defence procurement and collaboration deals are likely to get revisited, spruced up and updated.
Sources say, PM's defence related shopping list includes spare parts and munitions for Chinese made artillery guns, fighter jets, missiles, battle tanks and APCs currently being used by Bangladesh armed forces.
Especially, updating the naval armada with state of the art equipments is likely to be a priority, given that senior Chinese naval officers have assured Bangladesh during past visits to further improve the retrofitted HQ-7 SAM missiles being used by Bangladesh navy. It was learnt, Sheikh Hasina may finalize the pipeline procurement deal of other military hardware, including 155mm PLZ-45 (Type -88), 122mm (Type-96), and MBRLS multi-use defence systems.
The connectivity with Chittagong is important for another geo-strategic reason. Years ago, China helped Bangladesh construct a missile launching pad near the Chittagong Port, from where test fire occurred since 2008 of Chinese anti-ship cruise missile type C-802A, a modified version of Chinese Ying Ji-802 missile system. Further modification and beefing up of the system is overdue now.
Nuclear collaboration
Then there is the billion dollar question of nuclear collaborations. After years of futile attempts since the mid-1980s to obtain peaceful nuclear cooperation from the West, Dhaka finally made a dent in 2000 with China for the transfer of technology to establish nuclear power plants. Yet, for obscure reasons, the AL-led regime changed that road map upon assuming power this time, going instead to Moscow.
Nuclear collaboration
Then there is the billion dollar question of nuclear collaborations. After years of futile attempts since the mid-1980s to obtain peaceful nuclear cooperation from the West, Dhaka finally made a dent in 2000 with China for the transfer of technology to establish nuclear power plants. Yet, for obscure reasons, the AL-led regime changed that road map upon assuming power this time, going instead to Moscow.
Sources say PM may revive the old deal with Zhongyuan Engineering Corporation to build a 300 MW nuclear power plant while the deal with Russia too will progress simultaneously due to the country needing more than one or two nuclear power plants to meet its burgeoning demand for power. All these pipeline deals can see the day light only when the PM shows a credible intent to strike the right balance between India and China in her government's foreign policy postures. Earlier, Beijing felt deeply hurt following the renaming by the AL-led regime of the Bangladesh-China friendship centre which the Chinese government had built at a cost of US$ 25 million, and had written off as grant after a request was made.
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