What's up in Jatiya Party?
With Jatiya Party leader Ershad unhappy at the outcome of his alliance with government, a fresh political polarisation may appear in the offing
by ANWAR PARVEZ HALIM
Jatiya Party and Ershad are synonymous. He and the party are one and the same. However, age is catching up with him. Born on February 1, 1930, he is now 80 years old. He has heart problems with three stents in place. He may no longer be his sprightly self, but he still has tremendous mental strength. He still goes around on his political tours of the country. Recently, though, his health problems have been taking toll and he spent over two weeks in United Hospital. He left for Singapore on May 22 to undergo a medical check-up.
In the meantime, his wife Begum Raushan Ershad hasn't been too well either. Age is catching up with her too and she is under treatment at the Combined Military Hospital (CMH) in Dhaka. A leader of Jatiya Party said she is likely to return home soon.
Another senior leader of the party, Kazi Zafar Ahmed, has also been suffering from various ailments, including heart problems, for long. This has held him back from active participation in party politics. It is not likely that he will return to active politics any time soon, or at all.
Before departing for Singapore, Ershad made his younger brother, Minister for Civil Aviation and Tourism GM Quader, the Acting Chairman of Jatiya Party. Prior to that, Ershad handed over the reins of Rangpur district organisational activities to Quader in the presence of the local party leaders and workers. He called upon the local leaders and workers of Rangpur district to extend their cooperation and loyalty to Quader. At the meeting he also said, Jatiya Party means Ershad so his decision was final. If anyone didn't like it, they could leave. This was quite a meaningful message.
Jatiya Party is the country's third largest political party. They won 27 parliamentary seats in the last election. With four reserved seats for women, they now have 29 seats in parliament, having lost two seats in the by-election. According to the Election Commission, Jatiya Party secured 7% of the total votes in the election. Ershad often contends that in keeping with the number of seats, his party is the major opposition party and that his is the second largest political party of the country. But this is not credible because by joining the Awami League-led mahajote (grand alliance), he already made his compromise.
However, Ershad have proven his popularity by clinching three seats for himself in the last polls. And that is why his party leaders and workers are worried about his indisposition. If he retires, who will take over the party in his stead? This has given rise to a storm of speculations in political circles.
Will the mantle fall on GM Quader?
Political analysts view Civil Aviation Minister GM Quader as the befitting successor to HM Ershad. They feel he is the future Chairman of the party. For the time being he is the Acting Chairman, a sort of precursor to his official taking over of the party helm. From the top to the grassroots of the party, everyone is certain that he will be the party Chairman. This once again proves that there still is no alternative dynastic politics for Bangladesh in particular and South Asia as a whole.
The question is that if GM Quader is placed at the party helm, will the other leaders accept him? Will the party remain united? Or will this cause a rift in the party? When asked this question, the party leaders close to Ershad almost in unison replied that GM Quader was a gentleman, educated and qualified for the office. They had no qualms about his leadership. They said it would be a correct decision on Ershad's part to hand over the party reins to Quader. They said if the party was handed over to someone outside of his family, differences would inevitably arise and the party would split. Ershad knew what he was doing. Some speculated that perhaps Ershad foreign friends also wanted to see GM Quader at the top. They said Quader had sound connections abroad.
Several sources of Jatiya Party have told PROBE that when Ershad returns, he will remain party Chairman in name alone. It will be GM Quader who will run the show. The party's Secretary General Ruhul Amin Howladar, senior leaders Mostafa Jamal Haider, Raushan Ershad, Kazi Firoz Rashid, Kazi Zafar and other have all given their approval concerning GM Quader. The MPs too, save one or two, are ready to accept his leadership. Had Raushan Ershad been healthy and fit, perhaps Quader wouldn't have got such overwhelming support.
The Anis-Bablu duo
Jatiya Party leaders Barrister Anisul Islam Mahmud MP and Ziauddin Bablu are said to be the Awami League lobby within Jatiya Party. For a variety of reasons, most other leaders within the party eye them with a degree of suspicion. Anisul Islam Mahmud's relations with Ershad are not going well at the moment.
It is these leaders who were instrumental in influencing Ershad to join the mahajote or grand alliance of Awami League. Ershad claims that he agreed to join the mahajote upon receiving an assurance from Awami League that he would be made President of the country. But Awami League went back on its word once it came into power. This has been a matter of mental anguish for Ershad. The party leaders and workers are also unhappy with Awami League over this betrayal and blame Anisul Islam Mahmud and Ziauddin Bablu for this.
Before the schedule January 22 which was later cancelled, Ershad had been holding a series of meetings with BNP's Tareq Rahman about Jatiya Party joining the BNP-led alliance. It was then that Awami League lured him away with promises to making him President. Anis and Babul mediated the deal. However, Awami League made no commitment to Ershad about the December 29 election so it can't really be said that they betrayed him. That is the explanation put forward by the Anis-Bablu clique. The explanation, needless to say, does not satisfy Ershad.
Being an army man, Ershad is extremely disciplined. He does not accept anything in the party without his full approval. He does not accept the slightest disruption or order in the party by any leader. Awami League President Sheikh Hasina returned to the country from a broad during the rule of the caretaker government despite all sorts of warnings and threats from the authorities. Awami League celebrated the anniversary of that day with great fanfare. Anis and Bablu turned up at the celebrations with bouquets for Hasina. Ershad was none too pleased. After all, this was an exclusively Awami League programme in which Ershad wasn't even invited as an ally of the grand alliance. So, the party leaders ask, who were Anis and Bablu representing?
Speaking about Anis and Bablu, Jatiya Party Dhaka City (South) President Kazi Firoz Rashid tells PROBE, "The government is making a mistake it if imagines Anis and Bablu are everything in Jatiya Party. They have no place in the party. They have no group, no supporters whatsoever. They have no control within the party. Ershad is the party's all-in-all."
According to various sources in Jatiya Party, if GM Quader is given leadership of the party, Anis and Bablu are likely to object. They may even join Awami League. There are some within Jatiya Party who are unwilling to lose an experienced leader like Anisul Islam Mahmud who had also been a minister at one time. They had even tried to make him the party's Secretary General, but Ershad did not agree. Their over enthusiasm about Awami League has pushed Anis and Bablu to one side within Jatiya Party.
Ershad's sudden anti-govt. stance
Other than his younger brother GM Quader being made a minister, neither Ershad not his party has benefitted from joining the mahajote. His dream of becoming the President once again, a chance to redeem himself of the 'autocrat' stigma, was not fulfilled. Ershad had been a wily and intelligent leader all along, his party leaders say, but at this stage he somehow fell into the Awami League trap. There had even been news that the Awami League government was appointing him as an Ambassador to some Middle East country, but even that fell through. He may be in the grand alliance, but not in the government. He has not been able to enjoy an iota of power. Sheikh Hasina pays him no attention whatsoever in matters of the government. He has been silent on this head for the past 16 months, but has now opened his mouth.
Upon returning home from hospital earlier this month, he let out a tirade against the government. He criticised its failure in controlling the price of essentials, in the sectors of power, gas, water, law and order, its tender manipulations, Chattra League's violence and more. On May 17 at the party's city meeting, he spoke sternly against the government. Even the Civil Aviation Minister GM Quader criticised the government. And then Ershad handed over the party's responsibility to Quader and left for Singapore.
Political analysts are keenly observing Ershad's new stance. They feel Ershad isn't such an easy pushover. Does that mean a fresh polarisation in Bangladesh's politics? After 1/11 Ershad had handed over the party to Anisul Islam Mahmud and remained out of harm's way. While Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina had to weather a tough storm, he remained untouched. Now speculations abound about his recent activities. Is Ershad really preparing to retire from politics? Or is he once again drawing into a shell upon perceiving certain changes ahead? Or is he foreseeing himself as the future Leader of Opposition in parliament?
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