India, China plot Bangladesh woe
Over 200 dams to be built by two countries; int'l study reveals up to 22pc water to be dried up in 2 decades
Bangladesh is going to face water shortage and its cumulative impacts in next two decades as China and India will build over 200 big and small dams on the Himalayan rivers Yangtze, Brahmaputra and Gages to meet their growing water needs.
Building such dams will alter flow of Bangladesh rivers in dry season, says an international study on water budget of four Himalayan and sub-Himalayan countries -- Bangladesh, China, India and Nepal.
A decrease in water supply by up to 22 percent in next two decades, rise in sea level and increase in population might push Bangladesh to the risks of food insecurity, outbreak of water-borne diseases and loss of biodiversity, says the report styled "The Himalayan Challenge -- Water Security in Emerging Asia".
Many dams will be built in the Himalayan sub-regions as the countries will be working to safeguard their interests, states the report, which might be released today in Singapore.
China alone has already developed plans to construct over 200 dams to add to its existing 26,000 big and small ones.
India has recently set up a panel to study alternatives to tap the Brahmaputra to strengthen its claims over the river's tributaries, since there have been reports that China plans to divert those.
The report briefly says around 25 new dams are planned for the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers.
Constructing big dams in an earthquake-prone region on a trans-boundary river would be alarming, especially as there is no water-sharing treaty between India and China.
With the region facing a threat of water shortage, the report speculates "this could lead to a conflict between India and China".
Examining water needs and supplies from the Himalayan rivers in Bangladesh, China, India and Nepal for next two decades, the report states that 275 billion cubic metre (BCM) fresh water would decline, which amounts to more than the current waters available in Nepal.
For betterment of the four countries, the report suggests collaboration on the management of the Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins under an umbrella of Himalayan River Commission and working together to facilitate basin-wide water development.
The report states that demand of water will increase due to economic development and increase in population, resulting in a decline in per capita water supply from 2,150 to 1,860 cubic metre in China, from 1,730 to 1,240 CM in case of India, from 7,320 to 5,700 CM in case of Bangladesh, and from 8,500 to 5,500 CM in Nepal in 2030.
In the second half of this century, the Yellow River in China and the Ganges [with her tributes] in India will be the most affected and turn into seasonal rivers as the glacial melting will eventually reduce river flow in the low season due to climate change, the report says.
At present, the agricultural sector in China consumes nearly 65 percent of its total water supply, which will reduce to 55 percent. On the other hand, 90 percent water is used for agriculture in India which is likely to reduce to 75 percent by 2050.
Both India and China face drops in the yield of wheat and rice by at least 30 percent by 2050, while their demands will increase by 20 percent.
So, the Asian powerhouses will need to import more than 200-300 million tonnes of wheat and rice, pushing up prices of these commodities in the international market, the reports predicts.
The report prepared by the Strategic Foresight Group is set to be released today at an international workshop in Singapore on river basins management in presence of the water resources ministers from the Asia Pacific.
The National Water policies in Bangladesh, China, India and Nepal must incorporate further emphasis on conservation, says the report, which The Daily Star has received in advance.
Though problems arising from water security are essentially internal, solutions need to be in the form on trans-boundary and sub-regional cooperation, says the executive summary of the report.
Building such dams will alter flow of Bangladesh rivers in dry season, says an international study on water budget of four Himalayan and sub-Himalayan countries -- Bangladesh, China, India and Nepal.
A decrease in water supply by up to 22 percent in next two decades, rise in sea level and increase in population might push Bangladesh to the risks of food insecurity, outbreak of water-borne diseases and loss of biodiversity, says the report styled "The Himalayan Challenge -- Water Security in Emerging Asia".
Many dams will be built in the Himalayan sub-regions as the countries will be working to safeguard their interests, states the report, which might be released today in Singapore.
China alone has already developed plans to construct over 200 dams to add to its existing 26,000 big and small ones.
India has recently set up a panel to study alternatives to tap the Brahmaputra to strengthen its claims over the river's tributaries, since there have been reports that China plans to divert those.
The report briefly says around 25 new dams are planned for the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers.
Constructing big dams in an earthquake-prone region on a trans-boundary river would be alarming, especially as there is no water-sharing treaty between India and China.
With the region facing a threat of water shortage, the report speculates "this could lead to a conflict between India and China".
Examining water needs and supplies from the Himalayan rivers in Bangladesh, China, India and Nepal for next two decades, the report states that 275 billion cubic metre (BCM) fresh water would decline, which amounts to more than the current waters available in Nepal.
For betterment of the four countries, the report suggests collaboration on the management of the Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins under an umbrella of Himalayan River Commission and working together to facilitate basin-wide water development.
The report states that demand of water will increase due to economic development and increase in population, resulting in a decline in per capita water supply from 2,150 to 1,860 cubic metre in China, from 1,730 to 1,240 CM in case of India, from 7,320 to 5,700 CM in case of Bangladesh, and from 8,500 to 5,500 CM in Nepal in 2030.
In the second half of this century, the Yellow River in China and the Ganges [with her tributes] in India will be the most affected and turn into seasonal rivers as the glacial melting will eventually reduce river flow in the low season due to climate change, the report says.
At present, the agricultural sector in China consumes nearly 65 percent of its total water supply, which will reduce to 55 percent. On the other hand, 90 percent water is used for agriculture in India which is likely to reduce to 75 percent by 2050.
Both India and China face drops in the yield of wheat and rice by at least 30 percent by 2050, while their demands will increase by 20 percent.
So, the Asian powerhouses will need to import more than 200-300 million tonnes of wheat and rice, pushing up prices of these commodities in the international market, the reports predicts.
The report prepared by the Strategic Foresight Group is set to be released today at an international workshop in Singapore on river basins management in presence of the water resources ministers from the Asia Pacific.
The National Water policies in Bangladesh, China, India and Nepal must incorporate further emphasis on conservation, says the report, which The Daily Star has received in advance.
Though problems arising from water security are essentially internal, solutions need to be in the form on trans-boundary and sub-regional cooperation, says the executive summary of the report.
__._,_.___
