Redemption and Risks
by Ayesha Kabir
August, 2010
All is quiet on the army front in Bangladesh these days, with the khaki remaining safely in the barracks. The democratic government of Sheikh Hasina has been in power for just over a year and a half and the uniforms have hardly been visible at all. Is this silence is a sign of stability or a lull before the storm?
Why should this question be raised at all? Despite intermittent spates of military rule, Bangladesh is not a military-oriented society. Its army is respectful towards democracy.
Their interventions have been for the sake of crisis management, not on political grounds.
The military takeovers by the late General Ziaur Rahman and General Ershad were instances of immediate and effective crisis management. The only military intervention with political motivation by a General Nasim turned out to be an aborted coup. The army backed caretaker government which took over on January 2007, came when political turmoil was at its zenith.
The aim of the caretaker government was to hold a free and fair election, but it outstayed its 90-day mandate and remained in power for nearly two years during which it ran an anti-corruption drive, coming down hard on political parties and the business community. Top politicians and business persons found themselves behind bars.
So when Awami League was elected and formed a government in 2009, there was a sense of relief at the restoration was democracy. But the relief was short-lived. In February 2009 a most ghastly massacre took place, purportedly a mutiny by troops of the para-military Bangladesh Rifles (BDR). As many as 57 senior officers of Bangladesh Army were killed. Bloody reprisal from the army was expected, but as Irtiza Nasim Ali, Managing Editor of International Herald Tribune Bangladesh, says, "This was perhaps the greatest test for the army. So many officers had been killed in cold blood, but the army showed unparalleled restraint."
Bangladesh Army does not nurture links with fanatical religious factions. The officers and soldiers are practicing Muslims, but are not motivated by religious fanaticism. This spirit has been enhanced with their exposure as UN peacekeepers where they work closely with persons of other faiths. If extremists had hope of cashing in on the BDR incident, they were disappointed.
The government too dealt with the incident effectively. The initial heat subsided and the ashes were effectively swept under the carpet. The trial for the BDR killing is on, but in a very low-key manner.
However, a potential crisis has been created by the BDR massacre. Under normal circumstances, disruption in law and order would mean intervention by the police. If the police fail, the armed police, RAB (Rapid Action Battalion) and BDR are called in. Only as the last resort would the army be summoned. But with BDR effectively out of the way, a vital link has been removed.
Anyone following the course of events in Bangladesh would see all signs of a crisis ensuing, particularly in the readymade garment sector, the country's main economic bloodline. Labor unrest has been simmering long (genuine grievances fanned by motivated instigation). The government-backed student front has unleashed a reign of terror on the campuses.
Crime and corruption is on the rise again. The police are proving unable to handle the situation. If the army has to be called in, this would be most unfortunate. While the people have little regard for the police, they view the army with respect. Pitching them directly against the workers would seriously diminish this respect. Just having redeemed itself after a controversial caretaker term, the army itself may not be willing to step in. This would also exacerbate the situation. If they come in, it's bad, if they don't, it's bad too - Catch-22.
The cantonments remain silent, but observers cannot help but feel a tinge of unease. Will the government be able to control the situation or will the army once again find itself between the proverbial rock and a hard place?
The writer is Editor of the Dhaka-based PROBE News Magazine.
Email: ayeshakabir@yahoo.com
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