Turbulent days ahead?
Unrest in the garment sector, the war crimes trial, constitutional amendments and political uncertainties indicate turbulent times ahead
by ANWAR PARVEZ HALIM
Bangladesh has been caught up in a whirlwind of uncertainty. The garment sector is riddled with violence, Constitutional amendments has given rise to a flurry of questions, the trial of the criminals has come into focus, Ramadan is around the corner and already the market prices are spiralling out of control. The country's politics seem to be hurtling ahead towards a turbulent future.
As it is the people are apprehensive of the state of affairs. And then when a ruling party leader declares, "There is bloodshed all around. Dark days lie ahead. The fog hasn't lifted from politics since 1/11. We lack national cohesion. We are nearly on the list of precarious states. Are we to heading towards a Sudan, Somalia or Afghanistan?" Obaidul Kader made this remark on August 2 while addressing a meeting at the Press Club. It certainly holds significance. The question reverberating all around is: Where are we heading?
Anger lingers in the garment sector
This is not the first time that unrest has been instigated in the readymade garment sector, the export-oriented sector which rakes in the most foreign exchange earnings for the country. A total of 2.5 million workers and their families are dependent on this industry. Unfortunately, this sector is yet to gain stability and vested quarters take full advantage of this time and again. The present situation is a recurrence of past, but with growing cause for concern.
About six months ago a whisper campaign took off from unknown sources, declaring that unrest would break out in the garment sector. After that, the workers took up the movement for a 5000 taka minimum wage. Then on July 23 when a garments worker Beauty was thrown off the roof of Vertex Fashion Ltd in Mirpur to meet her death, violence erupted and spread like wildfire.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina made an appeal to consider the wage increment from a humanitarian viewpoint. The workers were thrilled at the Prime Minister's sympathy and took it for granted that this was a guarantee for their 5000 taka minimum wage. But on July 28 the Wage Board announced a minimum wage of 3000 taka, their hopes were dashed to the ground. Of course the Wage Board has justified its decision.
It says, during the caretaker government, the minimum wage was fixed at 1662 taka and now it has been increased 80%. Neither the workers not the management is happy with this. On July 29 the wage scheme was announced. Then on July 30, persons claiming to be workers ran riot. They went on rampage, destroying property, houses, offices, banks and shops in the Tejgaon, Mohakhali and Gulshan areas. President of BGMEA Abdus Salam Murshedi says, "Many owners were not agreeable to an 80% increase in wages, but in response to the Prime Minister's appeal, they consented. But there condition was that the security of their industries had to be ensured."
The ground reality is that the government is unable to provide the industry any security, despite the Prime Minister's stern warning to the troublemakers. The Metropolitan Police Commissioner says that they have a list of the instigators' names. If so, why are they not being arrested? Why are the police failing to bring the situation under control?
It has been learnt that at least 22 NGOs and 15 labour leaders have been behind this recent spate of labour unrest. Intelligence agencies claim that the conspirators are reportedly spending crores of taka on the labour leaders. It is more or less an open secret that foreign hands are pulling the strings. On July 21 a leading Bengali daily ran a large advertisement in which a number of foreign organisations declared unity with the garment workers of Bangladesh, calling for 5000 taka minimum wages. If the 5000 garment factories of the country close down in the interests of foreign quarters, this business will go elsewhere. India and Sri Lanka stand to gain.
India and Sri Lanka have to pay tariff in many countries where they export readymade garments. Bangladesh, having tariff free facilities, is eyed with interest. Many are eager to go into joint collaboration with Bangladeshi garment industrialists to reap the tariff-free and quota-free benefits. The process in this regard has already begun.
In the meantime, on August 1 a tripartite agreement was reached between the labour leaders, garments workers and the government. A minimum wage of 3000 taka was agreed upon. The labour leaders called upon the workers to go back to work.
Sources say that while a section of the workers have moved away from the movement, a large section remains aggressive. They are very suspicious about the announcement that the new wage structure will come into effect from November. They see it as a deprivation of their Eid bonuses and smell a rat in the whole matter. They demand that the new wages come into effect from August 1.
Analysts do not see the labour unrest being quelled any time soon. There is all likelihood that their agitation will increase during Ramadan. It looks like invisible hands as pushing things in that direction.
The unrest in the garments sector may be a turning point in national politics, some feel. Economists feel that the sharp rise in the price of essentials during Ramadan will have a serious impact on the garment workers. As it is their house rent is going up.
Ramadan, war crime trial and BNP's fears
Last Ramadan the government had announced that it would monitor the market, but that did not assuage the situation and prices hit the roof. There are all chances of the market becoming unstable this time too. Already the prices of rice, lentils, edible oil, sugar and other essentials have shot up. This has hit the common man hard and fear has entered the public.
Iftar parties have become a tradition for political parties during Ramadan and the political arena remains calm for at least this period of time. This time things are different. Jamaat-e-Islami leaders are in the dock about to face the war crime trial. The party's leadership stands rife with suspicion and inner conflict. Jamaat may even split. However, analysts say that along with the war crimes trial, other religion-based parties are feeling uncomfortable and might go 'underground'. This may usher in Islamic militancy. In such a case, the western powers would find ample grounds for intervention. On one hand India has lent full support to the war crimes trial, while the US and UK are insisting that the process be transparent and follow international standards. Political commentators say that the government is facing a tough test of balancing the interests of the powers that be.
It is clear that BNP is not taking a direct stand in favour of Jamaat where the war crimes trial is concerned though there is pressure upon Begum Khaleda Zia from within the party to take a stand in this regard. BNP is not going for any strong movement against the government for the time being. They aim at post-Eid months to drum up a movement.
The Saudi King, meanwhile, has extended a state invitation to Begum Zia. She is like to pay a visit to Saudi Arabia before Eid. Analysts read significance into this visit as well as the recent incident of US Ambassador Moriaty calling upon her.
Constitutional amendments and disheartened secular group
The secular forces of the country have long been demanding a reverting to the Constitution of 1972. Awami League too had been committed to reviving this Constitution. However, the court verdict in this regard has been accepted and the secularists within Awami League are aghast. While placing stress on the Fifth and Seventh Amendments, the government remains silent when it comes to the Eighth Amendment of the Constitution. Yet it was through this Amendment that Ershad introduced Islam as the state religion.
Critics point out that secularism was one of the main pillars of the 1972 Constitution. They say if Islam remains the state religion, then the term 'secularism' has no meaning whatsoever. This is a contradiction. President Ziaur Rahman had introduced 'Bismillahir Rahmanir Rahim' in the preamble of the Constitution. The court has upheld retaining this. Nirmul Committee leader Shahriar Kabir is irate. He says that if this term is removed from the Constitution, it will not create any harm. He is in favour of removing the words 'Bismillahir Rahmanir Rahim'.
With the court cancelling the Fifth Amendment, religion-based politics is supposed to be banned. It is the government's responsibility to implement the verdict. But will the government take the initiative to ban religion-based politics? Several quarters doubt if the government will actually take this decision. The secularist civil society has decided to step up pressure on the government to prohibit religion-based politics.
Persons of the nationalist ilk say that this cannot be called a return to the 1972 Constitution. They say that Awami League is simply using this to meet their own ends. They point out that the Prime Minister and her ministers, raising the issue of the Fifth and Seventh Amendment, are spewing out abuse towards President Ziaur Rahman. In other words, their objective is to belittle Ziaur Rahman.
Various quarters feel that one of the main agendas of the government in dabbling with the constitutional amendments is to do away with the caretaker government system. Work to this end is on within the government. This will consolidate Awami League's position further in the future. Government policy makers reason that they are a majority in parliament and with BNP and Jamaat in their present predicament, there is little chance of any public protest. Thus this is the right time to annul the caretaker government system.
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