| The recent development in politics over dead bodies is an interesting epoch in our history and a close scrutiny reveals, who could really have hurled the bomb, to reap political opportunity, should one takes into account of the greater picture of domestic politics in Bangladesh and regional politics in South Asia. So, here is an analysis of mine, based on inductive reasoning, empirical evidence, chronology of events, and post-bombing politics. Of course, my argument is a hypothetical one, as it lacks forensic evidence and cause and effect relationship, as applied by law enforcement agencies, to discover reason of the act and apprehend the culprit.
However, as political analysis reveals hidden truth about motive of actors, so I am sharing my analysis that requires a cautious reading. For, I offer an alternative view, with a greater picture of regional politics, in a post 9/11 scenario in which astonishing political twists are being played, to gain geo-strategic benefit by nation states.
Scene One: The State of Awami League Vs. BNP Politics Since 2000
For last two years, Sheikh Hasina was desperate to form an anti- government coalition as to oust the incumbent elected government. As a means to draw international sympathy, to discredit the incumbent BNP government, Sheikh Hasina repeatedly claimed that Bangladesh has become a Taleban State, under the reign of the current BNP government. In this respect, at home and abroad, surprisingly Sheikh Hasina made speeches with similar content and theme: that Bangladesh has become a fundamentalist country, that Dhaka is ruled by a Taleban style government, that Bangladesh harbors and sponsors anti-Indian insurgents, that BNP supports Islamic terrorism, and above all, that Bangladesh has become a failed state. Naturally, BNP denied all these accusations.
Surprisingly, Sheikh Hasina did not realize that as the Indian media was outpouring identical "news" against Bangladesh simultaneously, such speeches for Hasina rather, backfired politically, alienating her further from people. For, what Hasina failed to realize, is to discredit the BNP government, in reality, she had rendered a great disservice to the nation, as she hardly distinguished between the "Government" and the "State," as they are two separate entities. The more Sheikh Hasina became alienated from people, the more she became frustrated, resulting in further increase in her caustic voice and exaggerated claims, as opposed to self-correction.
Because people became suspicious of her arrogant and nonsensical anti- Bangladeshi speeches, Hasina made little progress in her pursuit of anti-government political propaganda, to raise public sentiment against the BNP government, although one after another, BNP was committing political blunder. Her failure is due to her inability to understand the psychology of the middle class Bangladeshis, who pride in their national progress and value personal and collective security of the nation, irrespective of political affiliation, since no one on earth intends to live under disgrace; especially, when it is a matter of survival, as it was the case for the Bangladeshis, after the 9/11 incidence and the War in Iraq. Being frustrated, Hasina attempted to exploit every opportunity at her disposals: supporting the faction of Badruddoza Chowdhury, describing the attack on author Humayn Azad as an act of BNP, or condemning the bomb attacks at different locations in Bangladesh as signs of rising Islamic terrorism in Bangladesh, under the rule and sponsorship of BNP government.
Hasina's logic was simple: as the BNP government has failed to find any single culprit, who perpetuated such bombings; therefore, inevitably it proves that BNP actually, was behind the bomb attack, although she never mentioned why under her Premiership did the Awami government had failed to solve similar bomb cases and find the culprits: at the Bengali New Years Celebration at Ramna Park, Udichi Sammelon at Jessore, or at the meeting of the Communist Party of Bangladesh (CPB) in Dhaka. Or, why one would not consider that it was rather, Awami League, which perpetuated such bombings, following her own logic! But a paranoid person, as one understands, can hardly apply logic.
Meanwhile, came down the great flood in recent history. Everyone knew that the flood would wreck the national economy, since in addition to billion dollar loss in national economy, within few months Dhaka will loose its GSP preference for its garment sector, causing a shrink in export. Thus, for Sheikh Hasina, it became a great source of opportunity, to create political mess for BNP, should relief works go awry. But for the Awami league, and particularly, for Hasina, unfortunately, there was not much relief related scandals to cash upon politically. What is more, regardless of criticism about the relief work, other political parties told Hasina blatantly that they would not forge a political alliance, just to pave Sheikh Hasina way to power.
Frustrated by political isolation, at a meeting at Manikgonj, right after lecturing the AL cadre that as the BNP led government was busy looting the relief; therefore, Awami League activists should maintain a constant vigil, on 26 July 2004, Sheikh Hasina made a FOUR DAYS TRIP to India. The Awami League's official statement was that TO PAY RESPECT to great Sufi; Khwaza Main-ud-Din Chisti (r.) at Ajmeer Sharif, Sheikh Hasina was visiting India, although Indian and Bangladeshi media reported that out of FOUR DAYS TRIP TO INDIA, Hasina had spent only 15-30 minutes at the Mazar of Khwaza Moin-ud- Din Chisti (R).
The REST of the 4 Days, Sheikh Hasina had met with the Indian Prime Minister, Manamahan Singh, in addition to Indian Foreign Minister, Natabar Singh, Indian Leader of the Opposition, Sonia Gandhi, and the arch anti-Bangladeshi anti-Muslim Hindu Nationalist BJP leader, L. K. Advani. However, the media did not mention any name or reference to, regarding who else saw Hasina-particularly, whether any intelligence officials of the Indian Defense Forces such as the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) had met with Sheikh Hasina. One can easily realize what sort of "Religious Mission" did Sheikh Hasina had in India. From her speeches and interview with Indian media, it is evident that in reality, Hasina was on a political mission, in an attempt to seek blessing and help of the Indian government, to overthrow the BNP led government.
Scene Two: Indian Policy towards Bangladesh: Kill Bangla with Smear Campaign
According to World Bank 2003 statistics, Bangladesh is a 31st ranking economic power of the world, measured in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) GDP, with 246.526 millions of US dollars and 51st economic power in the world, in terms of Gross National Income, (GNI, formerly, GDP), with a 54.587 billions of dollars. The government of Bangladesh statistics however, indicates Bangladeshi GDP approximates to around $ 57 billion, next to Pakistan, whose figure ranges between $60 and $66 billion, annually. In simple, instead of remaining a basket case, as Henry Kissinger had described, Bangladesh has become a vigorous economic power, with an accelerated speed, visible in numerous criteria.
In Human Development Index (HDI), Bangladesh is categorized as a Middle Income (MI) country, with high success in population control (1.7%), net enrolment (100%) in primary education, achieving a perfect parity between male and female (1 to 1) enrolment in net primary education, reduction of poverty rate (down to 32%), and so forth. Other sources of vibrant Bangladeshi economies are: a) revolution in agriculture, because of commercialization of agro- economy, resulting in achieving food sufficiency; b) revolution in industrialization through investment and growth in garments, textiles, pharmaceuticals, and in middle sized manufacturing sectors, and also increased investment in export processing zones (EPZ). Above all, 6 million expatriate Bangladeshis remit $3 billion annually to Bangladesh that has changed the face of national economy. Consequently, Bangladesh became politically assertive gradually.
Despite her numerous political failures, in respect of economic policy, Khaleda Zia government has added another dimension of success: the Looking East Policy (LEP). The LEP is aimed, and should it succeed, certainly is to draw further investment in Bangladesh; open ASEAN markets for Bangladeshi labors and products; and greater economic integration of Bangladesh into ASEAN economic blocks. To be precise, a success of LEP would drive Bangladeshi economy upward spirally, as it would create a cycle of further economic growth, compounded with greater investment, higher export, further inflow of foreign remittance; and so forth.
New Delhi naturally is alarmed for obvious reasons. Economically, integration of Bangladesh into ASEAN block would cause a loss of $3 billion annually for India. For, Bangladesh is dependent on Indian goods, either imported or smuggled in that helps New Delhi to dominate Bangladesh, because of the existing trade gap that favors India. For Dhaka, an integrated Bangladesh into ASEAN economy, therefore, means less dependency on India, allowing greater bargain cheap, while dealing with sensitive issues.
Politically, for the New Delhi elites, a vibrant Bangladesh poses a detrimental threat to its dysfunctional integration. The traditional Indian foreign policy towards her neighbors is based on the Indian Doctrine. The Indian Doctrine projects India as the Sole Regional Superpower in South Asia and in the Indian Ocean regions, writes political analyst Stephen P. Cohen at the Brookings Institute, in his recent monograph, "India: Emerging Power?" The Doctrine, according to Professor Cohen, considers small South Asian countries such as Bangladesh as a sub-ordinate and satellite state, and that these small states should maintain, according to New Delhi based power elite, points professor Cohen, a tributary relationship to the Great Indian Empire.
However, since her inception as a sovereign nation, Bangladesh refused to remain dominated by India economically and politically, as it sought other sources of economic and political integration, notably with US, EU, China, and Middle East. As a result, gradually, Dhaka regained its confidence, while dealing with New Delhi. The incumbent BNP government happened to have increased such economic assertion further in recent times, which has infuriated political elites in New Delhi, as BNP government pursues the Looking East Policy at a full swing. A quick look at the outcome of Looking East Policy and Dhaka's confrontation with Delhi reveals, why Indian elites are uneasy with the incumbent government:
a)Dhaka objects to Indian River Linking Project vigorously, creating constant political objection at home and abroad, sponsoring national and international seminars, holding dialogues with Nepal and Bhutan in this respect.
b)Dhaka refused to export natural gas to India as well as denied requests for transit and transshipment.
c)Dhaka called New Delhi to demark and honor the Indo-Bangladesh Border Markings, according to Indo-Bangladesh Border Treaty of 1972.
d)Dhaka declared its intention to go to the Word Trade Organization (WTO) Court against Indian unfair practice of imposing anti-dumping tax against Bangladeshi products.
e)Dhaka made vigorous attempts to initiate bilateral relations with Myanmar, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, resulting in Bangladesh's greater acceptability among ASEAN blocks, and the ASEAN member countries have promised to incorporate Dhaka as thier dialogue partner, with the aim to becoming a full-member of the ASEAN.
f)As an outcome of such economic diplomacy, most ASEAN countries have offered duty free access to numerous Bangladeshi goods. Myanmar offered that Bangladeshi farmers would be allowed to cultivate its farmland as big as Bangladesh for $8 per acre and Bangladeshis would be allowed to buy back these agro-products either to meet domestic demands of Bangladesh or to export abroad, which not only would reduce Indian agro markets in Bangladesh, but also it would make Bangladeshi farmers a fierce competitor.
g)Taiwan officially declared that it would allow import of Bangladeshi labor as well as relocate its sun set industries, notably, textile, IT, and light machinery sectors.
h)In last two years, as a result, almost every month, one or another trade delegates from ASEAN countries have visited Dhaka, signed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU); offered on spot orders, and opened up trade offices.
i)To expedite trade, infrastructures are being constructed or in under process of construction such as the Dhaka-Yangon Highway, linking to Southern China; direct cargo link between Chittagong and Bangkok; special cargo service between Chittagong and Singapore.
j)Another aspect of ASEAN involvement in Bangladeshi economy is the arrival of ASEAN business firms in Bangladesh such as Thai Airways' acceptance of Chittagong International Airport under its management, Thai Bank's financing the proposed 21 miles long elevated expressway in Dhaka city; Malaysian Telecom's investment in telecommunication and net service in Bangladesh, and so forth.
Naturally, such development in diplomacy does not find a positive response among Delhi based elites. India, therefore, is looking for a permanent solution to its Bangladesh crisis. For, should Bangladesh becomes politically assertive and economically independent, for New Delhi, it would become impossible to maintain its Colonial Rule over its Occupied Territories in the North-East that it has maintained for last five decades, arguing that being independent of New Delhi, the Seven North Indian Provinces of India cannot survive politically and economically, the reason for forced integration of the region, espoused in 1949, by the then Congress led government.
It was essential to make such a propaganda for New Delhi, as exploiting natural resources of the North East (oil, gas, timber, coal, etc.); the Bania-Marwari elites of the central government had intended to industrialize the Western Indian region of Maharashtra and Gujrat, which it eventually did, while not a single paisa was spent for the development of or for the well-being of the North Eastern region.
For an estimation of how New Delhi has imposed and maintains an internal Colonial Rule Over East & North East India, consider this fact: in last 50 years, in his memoir, "Apila Chapila", writes Ashok Mitra, the former Finance Minister of the CMP government of West Bengal, more than $50 billion dollar was transferred from the West Bengal economy to New Delhi, which was reinvested into Punjab, Bombay, and Gujrat economy, which has increased the livelihood of the Punjabis, Banias, and Marwaris, but have deprived the Bengalis of the West Bengal.
The case for the North East was worse: Assam sold its oil to Delhi Central government for $10 a barrel, when the international market price was $27 on the average in last three decades; but Assam received only 23 cents per dollar for its domestic investment in the province, while Punjab received 87 cents per dollar. When ever complain was raised against such discrimination, contenders were accused of playing regionalism. It is no wonder that a good number of Assamese, and other North Easterners desire to become Independent of India, as the entire region, in their opinion, was INVADED in 1947-49 period, which prior invasion by the Indian Army, under the direct order of Ballavbhai Patel, was neither part of the British nor of the Mughal Empires.
Now an economically strong and politically assertive Bangladesh would inspire people of the North East to dream for independence. Besides, should Bangladesh becomes assertive against the proposed River Linking Project, it also would make the people of North-East aware of their political and ecological rights, as the diverted water from the Brahmaputra River System would be used to irrigate farm lands of Karnataka, Gujrat, and Rajhthan-and at what cost-- at the ecological expense (READ DISASTER) of Bangladesh and the North Eastern region. In simple, New Delhi fears that success story of Bangladesh would raise questions among North-Easterners, as to what have they gained, becoming a province of India.
New Delhi therefore, is desperate to punish the BNP government, or whoever would take up the issues against New Delhi, even it was the Awami League. One of the means to punish Dhaka is to discourage Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to Bangladesh, portraying Bangladesh as a fundamentalist country--the hotspot of Islamic terrorism; therefore, describing her essentially as an anti-American and anti- Western country, in order to deprive Bangladesh its access to Western market and eventually, impose economic restrictions and if possible, sanctions, which would reduce the economic growths of Bangladesh. Towards that gain, in last two years, as a result, the Indian intelligence agencies have been conducting a concerted smear campaign against the image of Bangladesh in abroad, spreading distorted and falsified information, to create negative image of Dhaka in the West.
Another and the most effective means to slow the growth of Bangladeshi economy would be to create political disturbance inside Bangladesh, so that its production and exports fail to meet the deadlines and Bangladesh become a hated name for the Western importers.In this curious context, there emerged a CONVERGENCE OF MUTUAL INTEREST for both ruling elites of India and of Sheikh Hasina: New Delhi wants Bangladeshi economy to be destroyed, as a means to preserve its hegemony, and Sheikh Hasina wants BNP to be destroyed, in order to become Prime Minister. Although with different reasons, yet, both Manamohan Singh and Shiekh Hasina have found a common enemy: Khaleda Zia and her BNP government.
Scene Three: Bombing, Mass Hysteria, & Politics of Sheikh Hasina
Without the absence of any state of political conflict, out of the blue, came the bomb blast. People were caught by surprise at the moment of the act, as the bombing took place at an unexpected moment: right after flood water was receding, and any absence of political turmoil. Naturally, questions arose: why now? What are the motives of the perpetrators? The Awami league leadership claims that it was a calculated effort to Kill the entire Awami League Leadership, spearheaded by Begum Zia and her son, Tareq Zia. But few facts are interesting to notice about bombing and post-bombing politics:
A)Before any investigation was launched, one wonders, how come the Awami League leadership, notably, Sheikh Hasina came to know that Khaleda & Tareq Zia had master minded the bombing? And what could be their motives, anyway? For, common sense dictates that an attempt to kill Hasina or the Awami leadership would only create a greater political disaster for the ruling BNP government, and why would BNP go for courting such an extraordinary political disaster, when it is already under economic and political mess, caused by the recent flood- to loose power to Hasina?
B)Since Hasina understands the illogic of her argument; as a result, she has little interest in FINDING the real culprits, or to cooperate with government or any other agencies, as she, in reality, is out to fish in muddy water. To be precise, Hasina DOES NOT WANT THAT THE CULPRITS BE FOUND, AS HER INTENTION IS TO TOPPLE THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT, EXPLOITING HYSTERIA AND SYMPATHY, NOT FINDING THE CRIMINALS. Hasina is playing the game of power, over the dead bodies of her own party workers, whom she would forget quickly, once she gets into power. In this respect, for Hasina, the bombing was a political blessing, as it created mass sympathy for a crestfallen Awami league leadership.
C)Hasina claims that the bomb was aimed to kill her and the Awami leaders. Strangely, in order to kill Hasina, bomb should have been thrown on the TRUCK, as the leaders of AL were standing on the truck, but that was not the case, although 10-15 hand grenades were hurled in. ALL THE GRENADES WERE THROWN AT THE CROWDS. Ivy Rahman was among the crowd, so she got hurt. BUT REST OF THE AWAMI LEADERS WAS IN SAFE POSITION, SO REMAINED UNHURT, GIVEN THE EXTENT OF BRUTALITY! Had killing the leaders were the plan, one wonders, why bombs were not thrown on the truck, as it appears that perpetrators are well trained?
D)Majority of the top Awami League leaders were absent in the meeting, which includes, names such as Abdus Samad Azad, Tofayel Ahmed, Abdur Razzak, or Zillur Rahman ! It is STRANGE that while Hasina was at a meeting, majority of AL leaders were absent.
E)Immediately after the blast, Hasina called for an INTERNATIONAL INVESTIGATION, as she anticipated that BNP would not respond to her claim. But as soon as the BNP had asked the Paris based International Police, the INTERPOL AND the Washington based FBI TO INVESTIGATE THE CRIME, HASINA IMMEDIATELY RMARKED TO JOURNALISTS THAT UNDER THE KHALEDA GOVERNMENT, EVEN INTERNATIONAL AGENCIES WOULD NOT RAMAIN IMPARTIAL. THEREFORE, INTERPOL AND FBI WOULD NOT TELL THE TRUTH IN THEIR REPORTS!
One wonders, why Hasina believes that the investigative reports of the Interpol and the FBI can go against her political wishes. Certainly, Interpol and FBI cannot be bribed by BNP government. One wonders, is Hasina is afraid that some great secret could be revealed, which she does not want to be revealed; as a result, she already is making a defensive statement, to discredit and to white wash any astonishing discovery, made by foreign detective agencies, ahead of time, to save her face?
F)It is STRANGE that RIGHT NOW, 18 AWAMI LEAGUE LEADERS, including the Party Presidium SURANJIT SEN GUPTA (in Calcutta) and the Joint Secretary General, OBAIDUL KADER (in Delhi) currently are in INDIA. The other AL leaders, who are in India include, Hasina's special aide, Mumtaz Hossain; Hasina's personal security chief, Major general (Rtd) Taraq Siddiqui, President of Awami Secchaya Sebak League, Nahauddin Nasim, Enamul Haq, Ajay Kor Khokan, Sahabuddin Farazi, Nazrul Islam, Nasima Ferdousi, and Bahar Mia.
The 1 September 2004 issue (Wednesday) of the Hindustan Times reports that physicians at Kolkatta based Peerless Hospital found it surprising that as to treat for minor injuries, since better hospitals than the Peerles are available in Dhaka, why did they came to India. We find it surprising for other reasons: first, how come after two weeks of the incidence, these 18 leaders got admitted at hospitals, when their minor scratches are certainly have cured; and second, how come they are admitted in same hospitals?
G)It is strange that these 18 AL leaders told the Hindustan Times correspondent that their lives are under threat from "fundamentalists" and that they do no wish to return to Bangladesh, unless "situation" changes! These prominent leaders of AL did not mention, but in their interview, it is implied explicitly that they anticipate a change in power in Bangladesh-and until then-- they would wait at safe place in India. Interestingly, the 26 August issue of the daily The Statesman of Calcutta wrote an editorial about the bomb incidence, accusing the BNP government to attempt to kill Hasina and commenting on other distorted information and half-truths, called New Delhi government to take "STERN ACTION" against Dhaka, so that "secular democratic" (read Awami League) can return to power!
H)It is STRANGE that Indian government has declared its intention to help Bangladesh to solve the bomb case, and in its official condemnation, New Delhi first, decried the "fundamentalists" to carry out the act and second, India mentioned that since "similar bombs" are being "used' by "terrorists" in Kashmir, therefore, India can help Bangladesh, as New Delhi, contends in its statement, was well aware of that Bangladesh became a "hot-spot" of Islamic Fundamentalism and Terrorism, sponsored by Pakistani Intelligence Agency (ISI), in order to destabilize India!
I)Hasina SEES hands of Khaleda and Tareq Zia behind the blast; therefore, she would not accept any report, even submitted by American FBI and Paris based INTERPOL; whereas, 18 AL leaders and New Delhi government SEE Islamic Fundamentalism and ISI connections in the blast.
J)Above all, Hasina has no interest into investigations of FBI & INTERPOL. AL and Hasina's help to FBI agent, who arrived on 1 September 2004, according to Saber Hossain Chowdhury is "merely" formal, indicating Hasina and AL's reluctance to cooperate.
K)Although the AL Secretary General Abdul Jalil told the journalists, "We want international probe into the attack" (3 September, The News Today/BSS), yet it is reported that Sheikh Hasina rejected INTERPOL & FBI requests to handover her car, to investigate authenticity of Hasina/AL's claim that her car was shot as well. Hasina also REFUSED to give interview to FBI and Interpol! Now the million dollar questions are: if International Police (Interpol) and FBI (USA) are not International Organizations, which one, according to Hasina/Jalil, constitutes status of "international body" and what is most important is, WHY HASINA REFUSES TO COOPERATE with Interpol and FBI? Why Hasina deliberately attempts to deny handover her car to examine? Is Hasina afraid that some TRUTH might get out of hand and indicate otherwise than what she claims about incidence?
L)Hasina is much busy to oust the government, meeting with 11 party members, as she has declared MONTH LONG PROGRAM: Hartal, Procession, and more Hartals. She has no interest whatsoever about who had conducted the bombing any longer, unless it serves a political purpose; initiate a dialogue between BNP and AL to save the nation from what she initially termed as "fundamentalists." But she has every interest and intention about how to use public sentiment against the BNP government. Concluding Remarks: What is most interesting development about the post-bombing politics are: a) Sheikh Hasina's reluctance to go after the culprits; b) her total commitment to topple an elected government, by any means necessary; c) her dire intention to create disturbance and state of confrontation that disrupts the national economy. For that reason, she rejected all appeals of initiating a dialogue, as she termed the initiative as an act to help the killers!
India appears to have on the process of launching another Media Terrorism against Bangladesh, as after much smooth talk, the Manamohan Singh government at last has revealed its ugly mask in last weak. To the Supreme Court of India, the Singh government declared that the Congress Government would go ahead, in implementing the River-Linking Project. Since BNP objects to the Project, India wants a friendly (read puppet) government in Dhaka, who would dance to Delhi's tune, not filing complains to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), while the project is underway. A power hungry and paranoid Hasina is a perfect match for the moment, in the eyes of the Indian elites, as evident in calling of Manamahan Singh to Hasina, right after the blast, vis-à-vis, his failure to call the Prime Minister of Bangladesh that the Rule of Diplomacy mandates and followed by others such as Colin Powell and Jack Straw of USA and UK.
Certainly, a delighted Hasina would not miss this golden opportunity to make a move to grab power, with the help of a powerful neighbor, even at the expense of national interest. Who cares for who actually threw the bomb - so long Hasina can grab power and Delhi is assured that Dhaka will LISTEN what it dictates, the death of 20 people does not count politically. For politics, better kill your own people and play over the dead bodies, should it become necessary, happens to be the rule of the game, in this land for years. If you cannot-seek external friends - to help you out - in carrying out the killing. They would be willing with enough incentive. But as time passes by and new evidence are surfacing, it is evident that for Sheikh Hasina and the Awami league leadership, demands for International Probes are becoming a political burden-least, it is about to expose some gruesome facts, regarding who actually had bombed the Awami League rally.
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