Crucial challenges of 2011
The government faces a host of challenges as the new year begins -• political cohesion • price control • Bangladesh-India treaty • energy security • food security • law and order • and more. PROBE speaks to prominent analysts, political thinkers and experts on the issue
by ANWAR PARVEZ HALIM
In its election manifesto, Awami League had pledged to establish good governance, the rule of law, transparency, human rights, an end to extra-judicial killing and more. But the ground reality is that it has failed to a great extent to keep its commitments. The year 2010 saw a flurry of human rights violations. The human rights organisation Odhikar published these in detail in their annual report. Another organisation Ain O Salish Kendra (ASK) reports that law and order was in a sad state throughout the year. It expresses apprehensions over the increase in individuals being picked up by persons in the name of law enforcement personnel and being killed. According to ASK, there were 133 extrajudicial killings last year alone. The government hasn't refuted these reports and so they are being taken as factual.
The deterioration of law and order, abductions and killings are not the only problems that the nation is facing. Power shortage, gas shortfall, the upward spiral of prices, all this also featured prominently in 2010. The people are quite naturally asking how this new year will prove to be. Will they continue with this baggage of problems or will they find some sort of relief? A number of prominent analysts speak to PROBE about these issues. None of them has shown much sign of hope, some saying we will remain plunged in the darkness of the previous year. They say the government may spew out rhetoric of change, but it doesn't have a magic wand to transform things overnight. Some analysts say the year 2011 will be a crucial year as the government will have to tackle a host of challenges. This will certainly not be an easy task.
Certain common challenges cropped up in the comments of the analysts. High on the list was political unrest. They say that the government must give due importance to the opposition's views on matters of national interest. But in reality the government pays no heed whatsoever to the opposition's opinion. On the contrary, the ministers and ruling party MPs are aggressive in their approach, simply worsening the existing crisis. If political understanding is done away with completely, violence will invariably arise. If BNP gets down to a full-fledged movement, the political arena will heat up. This cannot bode well for democracy. The government will have to bear the responsibility for this.
"Do you support Khaleda Zia's statement that 'the government's activities will be declared illegal'?" Out of 2701 respondents, 56.16% said "yes" and 42.10% said "no" with 1.74% refraining from comment. Citing this online survey report published on January 4 in Prothom Alo, senior journalist Mahfuz Ullah tells PROBE that this shows that even though the government may not recognise the opposition, Begum Khaleda Zia's popularity is increasing among the public. The government's popularity is on the wane. He says, the government is not sincere in paying any attention to the opposition. The government has to bring the opposition to talks in order to render the parliament effective. But the government has proven to lack sincerity in this regard. Mahfuz Ullah feels this year will not be comfortable at all for the government.
In another online survey report of January 4, published by Kaler Kantha, the question posed was "Do you agree with the wholesalers who say the price of rice has risen because the farmers aren't selling their grain?" Of the 587 respondents, 94.72% said "no" and 5.28% said "yes". The views of the public are a warning to the government, these are indicators. Speaking to PROBE, the analysts say that if prices rise in the international market, so will prices rise here. If the prices go out of control, the people's anger will grow. Prof. Tareq Shamsur Rahman stresses the need for food security.
Bangladesh-India bilateral relations featured prominently last year and may continue to do so this year. After all, many feel that national interests were not upheld in the agreements signed between the two countries last year. They feel that the agreements have gone in favour of India, not Bangladesh. Therefore, implementing these agreements is likely to be a challenge for the government. Questions have also arisen as to how the government will deal with the pressure from foreign quarters concerning coal mining and offshore gas blocks.
The government may try to address these issues, but it needs to do so in consultation with the opposition and taking public opinion into consideration. If the government is not farsighted in these matters, it will not be able to control anything. That is why analysts including Farhad Mazhar, Mujaheedul Islam Selim, Haider Akbar Khan Rono, Dr. Dilara Chowdhury, Dr. Tareq Shamsur Rahman, journalist Mahfuzullah, Hafizuddin, Saiful Huq, Anu Mahmud, Badiul Alam Majumdar and Mizanur Rahman Shelley, have called upon the government to put vengeance and stubborn attitudes to one side and create a democratic culture in the interests of the nation.
Farhad Mazhar
Poet, columnist and thinker
I don't have much expectation from 2011. From sovereignty, defense and security point of view we are literally living in an unprotected country; the BDR incident has been traumatic and I doubt whether defense institutions have resolved divisions, discontents and disarray. On the other hand the UN peacekeeping missions have virtually denationalized armed forces, undermining commitment to national sovereignty and thus eroding dignity of a soldier.
From economic perspective, I doubt whether we will be able to fetch the opportunities that could be opened up due to relocation of low end industries from China or Japan or other countries such as garments; there is no bright spot that indicate that we could take advantage, if any, of new trade policies of rich countries such as Europe; flow of investments is unpredictable. Most importantly, historical nature of our ruling class is such that they are more and more willing to allow the transnational companies to plunder the country, instead of forging a viable economic strategy to secure a strong place for Bangladesh within the international division of labour. Among the political parties there are serious lack of engagement and conflicting culture prevails undermining our national determination to survive in the intensely competitive world.
What concerns me singularly is the particular character of neo-liberalism that we are facing now and manifesting as a peculiar brand of fascism that is linked more with the appropriation of 'nationalism' into corporate culture. Note how the advertisement of the various multinational corporations in IT or in luxury sector is manipulating our emotion and attachment to liberation war, our glory of independence and our nationalism to promote corporate products, silencing our voices against economic, social and political injustice that we are facing every day. Such corporate fascism undermines the urgent need for national economic strategy for economic and social emancipation. Add to this the neo-liberal prescription that the market must determine everything; particularly the distribution of wealth, factors of production, etc. Therefore, State has hardly any role except to ensure the so called 'security'; it means sharpening and applying its coercive apparatus against the people to silence the protest and mobilization of the workers and the masses. We are observing now the monstrously over-determined role of security forces and systematic violation of human rights, unending incidents of extra-judicial killing and disappearance of people. This can explain why when the workers demand the implementation of the tripartite agreement with regard to wages and demonstrate and protest for a living wage their cause is immediately branded as conspiracy from foreign quarters. This too is a form of neo-fascism we are talking about, despite the fact that unwanted quarters may take advantage of social and political unrest and instability. This trend is steadily growing.
I am afraid that the level of oppression will increase. There will be no room for difference of opinion. And we will become extinct.
Many expressed happiness at the "independence" of the judiciary, although I was always critical keeping the overall scenario in mind. Role of the judiciary cannot but become linked with upholding the interests of international corporate interests, which is a systemic phenomenon and we must try to understand the reality objectively. The analytical intellect required to retrieve the nation from this situation simply isn't there.
Under the circumstances, I see conflict and unrest in 2011. I see no sign of hope. Everything is being done to protect corporate interests.
Mizanur Rahman Shelley
Chairman, CDRB
The most significant challenge that the government will have to face is effective management of the existing democratic order. Problems in the field relate to rising intolerance and the tendency to deny space to one another.
The ruling party has, by and large, grown the unhealthy tradition of refusing to give the opposition opportunities to vent its protest. During the over two decades of democracy, the opposition in Bangladesh has been given a rough deal. This was true when BNP was in power. It remains true when Awami League is in the driving seat. To make democracy meaningful and sustainable, the opposition must be given the respectable status that democracy demands.
If there is no correct in this regard on the part of the party in power, the opposition may become desperate and this may lead to a situation of widespread political conflict and violence. This will be a matter of great misfortune for the nation and democracy may face a new and grave crisis.
Prof. Dilara Chowdhury
Political analyst
Economics, culture, society, state, good governance, whatever we may speak about, at the root of everything lies politics. If the political environment is conducive, it is possible to bring about anything. But the way things stand between our two main political parties, it is difficult to expect any sort of cooperation. The ruling party and the opposition are at loggerheads. They have no tolerance. The root of democracy is negotiation and compromise, but this is absent in our politics. The way things are moving, politics will be the biggest challenge of the year. Things must change. If change is to take place, the two main leaders will have to change their mindset. This calls for political will. This can be possible if the moderate leaders of both parties come forward to take initiative in this regard. If the parties persist in their confrontational attitudes, there is danger ahead.
Prof. Tareq Shamsur Rahman
Professor of International Relations, Jahangirnagar University
a) Prices: Prices and the middle class are intricately interlinked, yet the price of rice has short up to around 38 taka. Awami League would accuse BNP of pushing prices up through syndicates. Now the Commerce Minister himself says that the market is being controlled by syndicates. Natural suspicions arise as to why the government cannot wipe out the syndicates.
b) Understanding with the opposition: The government claims that it practices democratic culture, but in 2010 there was a total regression of politics. The opposition was not taken into cognizance. In this new year, the government definitely needs to rebuild relations with the opposition. If not, it will have to face tough challenges ahead.
c. Economy: The inflow of remittances may drop and the labour market is likely to shrink. This will have a direct impact on the economy.
d. Bangladesh-India relation: The year 2010 saw controversy over the bilateral agreements signed between the two countries. This year too the issues of transit, trade relations, water sharing, etc, will feature prominently. The government will face challenges in these sectors too.
e. Pressure from outside will be stepped up over coal extraction and leasing of gas blocks. I feel that coal can be extracted by the open pit method, though a coal policy must be put in place keeping national interests in the forefront. Foreign quarters must not be allowed to extract the coal.
It will be crucial to deal with these issues in 2011 and the government will have to face one challenge after the other.
Mahfuz Ullah
senior journalist and media personality
This year the government may face a big challenge where governance is concerned. Foreign policy concerning relations with India and other countries may also pose as a challenge. There may be a crisis if the government goes ahead with certain issues pertaining to relations with India and bilateral agreements without consulting the opposition. Relations with India cannot depend on the government's viewpoint alone. Matters of national interest are involved here so the government must listen to the opposition's point of view too. It will be difficult for the government to bring relations with India and other countries to a multilateral level.
Two major issues may loom large in the economy. Development costs are mainly being run on the ADB-dictated formula. There may be a catastrophic disaster in the area of development expenditure. Secondly, we cannot expect much development for us in the labour market abroad. This market is likely to shrink.
The government is not taking the opposition into cognizance. This will create a large crisis. The government has failed to display any sincerity of intent in this regard. It is the government's responsibility to give ear to the opposition's voice, to consult them and to render the parliament effective. But the government is not serious whatsoever in this regard. So if the crisis worsens, the government must bear the blame. I do not think the current year is going to be comfortable for the government at all.
Anu Muhammed
Professor of Economics, Jahangirnagar University
If prices go up in the international market, this will create pressure on our market. The global economic depression will affect exports. The rising cost of living will create public unrest. The power crisis hasn't been solved. The government will face a challenge in implementing the bilateral agreements signed with India. If the craze for amassing wealth in the ruling party continues, the government will lose control over the party. Then if BNP steps up its movement, things will certainly not be smooth for the government.
Badiul Alam Majumdar
Secretary General, Convenor, SUJAN
There is an extreme lack of political harmony in the country. Clashes and unnecessary conflict continues unabated. Democracy requires certain norms, but our politicians are unwilling to adhere to any sort of norms. The parliament has been rendered ineffective. Instead of going to the parliament, the opposition has chosen to take to the streets. Not all problems can be resolved on the streets. If things continue this way, politics will inevitably face dire consequences. It will be a serious challenge for the government to face these circumstances.
Bangladesh's politicians feel that the civil society, the citizen's of the country, do not have the right to speak out. Yet all over the world the civil society plays a vital role and their views are given importance. The government here is unreceptive in this regard. They simply quell any voice of dissent.
In the past the politicians had a tendency to flout the laws. They continue to do so. The MPs have violated the law to take over development work though this responsibility lies with the Local Government Ministry. If the municipal elections are not free and fair, this will also provoke political unrest. The present government had pledged to introduce a fresh political culture. We want to see the government's sincere efforts to implement this pledge. If there is political unrest in the country, foreign powers will jump in to take advantage of the situation. If the government suppresses citizen's rights, the government itself will become weak. Two years have passed so there is still time for the government to turn away from politics of vengeance and concentrate on implementing its pledges. If it does not do so, it will face stiff challenges at every step.
Mujahidul Islam Selim
General Secretary, Communist Party of Bangladesh
Politics and the economy will pose as the main challenges of this year. There are two types of economy is the country presently. Even in Pakistan times we saw one state with two economies. This is the economy of the rich and that of the poor. This is a despicable discrimination. We see the US Ambassador directly dictating terms to the government where our oil and gas is concerned. Does that mean our fate lies in the hands of the imperialists, or will the people determine our future? This question is likely to loom large in the coming days. The country has plunged into darkness. It will not be easy to emerge from this, but the government will have to find a way.
The situation can be changed if the prevailing imperialistic politics is replaced with a government of the working people. There are not signs of this happening anytime soon and not likely in the foreseeable future either. But it is also true that people's uprising takes place all of a sudden. The bottom line is that I don't see healthy politics in the country, we are in the midst of unrest and uncertainty. This is how 2011 is likely to pass.
Haider Akbar Khan Rono
leftist leader
The democracy that we struggled for today lies with its face in the dust. There has been no change in the unrest and intolerance prevalent in the political arena. Instances of human rights violations are on the rise. Crossfire, partisanship, suppression of the opposition and repression continues. These might increase this year.
Then the Constitution has been reverted to its 1972 form. That means a prohibition on religion-based politics. How will the government deal with this? It all depends on the government how this year passes. I am not an astrologer so I cannot predict the future, but in 2010 there was no practice of democratic culture whatsoever. There isn't likely to be any sudden change.
The world economy is seeing its second downward curve and this will affect us too. This may make it difficult for the government to control prices. The garments sector is still tense. The management and the government are behaving unjustly with the workers. Unless this problem is resolved, there is no saying what might happen.
Saiful Huq
President, Biplobi Workers Party
The government's commitment for change has fallen flat. The rule of law has failed. It will be a challenge, therefore, for the mahajote (grand alliance) government to uphold democratic politics.
It is being said that the judiciary is independent. However, on ground we do not see any independent action of the judiciary. They always take the government's expectations into consideration. This may be a challenge for the judiciary.
Law and order is in shambles, with murders, lootings, abduction and harassment continuing unabated. There are instances of people disappearing and their bodies never being found. People are living in politics of fear. It is a big challenge for the government to resolve this situation.
M Hafizuddin Khan
Chairman, TIB
The present government has shown a degree of success in the fields of education and agriculture. But power and gas are the big problem areas. It is being said that there will be an addition of 2500MW of electricity. With the burgeoning demand for power, the power problem is not likely to be resolved. There is no visible progress concerning the rental plants.
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