Opinion polls and municipal polls: error vs. reality
Two daily newspapers, Prothom Alo and Daily Star, published the results of two opinion polls on 6 January 2011. Both the newspapers published summary of the polls on the front page. Full reports were published with graphics in tabloid sized special supplements. Municipal polls to elect mayors and councillors were to be held on 11 January. Naturally, two opinion polls published only five days prior to municipal polls were due to attract interests of political parties, candidates, workers, supporters and of course, voters. The municipal elections were held between 11 January and 18 January. The results have been quite different from the forecasts made by those two opinion polls. That is why concerned people are now trying to analyse and understand why those two opinion polls went wrong and what the real objectives of that exercise were.
First in Bangladesh
I would like to inform very humbly that probably weekly Jaijaidin was first to introduce political opinion poll in Bangladesh on March 18 1986. President Lt Gen H M Ershad had declared a general election will be held on 7 May 1986. In this context, Jaijaidin sent out 70,000 questionnaire forms to the countrywide members of the 700 Reader's Rights Committees (RRC). At that time Jaijaidin was selling nearly 150,000 copies per week. Questionnaire forms were printed in two colours, white and green. Same 15 questions were asked and RRC volunteers were requested to fill in white forms and get the green forms filled up by persons unknown to them and then mail back to Jaijaidin the completed forms. The results collated from both sets of returned forms were published in Jaijaidin on 18 March 1986. Regarding the two different results Jaijaidin made the following editorial comment:
"We are aware that no opinion poll can be fully correct. Therefore, we shall not claim that the two results of these opinion polls are fully correct. But, we would like to point out that the survey work has been carried out all over the country by the members of RRC and all kinds of adults and people belonging to different kinds of profession and vocation have taken part in the poll. However, a big limitation was that very few peasants and day-labourers took part in this poll. We hope that it will be possible to overcome this weakness in future."
But four months later Jaijaidin was banned and I was sent to exile in London. As a result, it was not possible to conduct any other opinion poll in Bangladesh.
In 1986, computer technology in Bangladesh was limited. The country's leading firm of Chartered Accountants, Rahman Rahman Huq (RRH) did not have a single computer. I was then a senior partner of that firm and I had friendly relationship with my politically conscious Articled Clerks. Some 50 of them voluntarily worked at my residence, first to sort out the returned forms in white and green and then to tabulate by hand the answers. They worked in groups in different rooms at a stretch for nearly 48 hours. They accomplished a wonderful job. They were the pioneering opinion poll workers in Bangladesh. All of them are well settled in their life now and I wish them well. I would also like to thank all the postal workers who in spite of a fear of persecution by Ershad regime, cooperated with Jaijaidin, to deliver thousands of envelopes before the dead line. We had put rubber stamps on the returnable envelopes marking: "Opinion Poll – Please Deliver The Mail Soon." I would like to thank those democracy-minded unknown postal workers who responded so well. There was no courier service then.
I mention this incident, because, although people of Bangladesh are mostly homogenous in respect of language, religion, food habit, dress, etc., their life pattern differs because of huge income difference. That is why, for a correct opinion poll, a very large sample is required and it was then possible by the help of many poll takers, tabulators and postal workers. But, we could not know how correct the opinion poll was because, BNP led by Khaleda Zia boycotted that election whilst Awami League led by Sheikh Hasina after a last minute deal with Ershad, participated. However, the interesting point to note is that the question number 15 that is the last question was:
How do you think the present government (Ershad Government) will be dislodged from power?
Three alternative answers were given and the people replied:
Readers– Non Readers
Election– 15% — 20%
Revolution (Popular Uprising)– 59%– 62%
Others 26%– 18%
That opinion poll of March 1986 was proved to be correct eventually in December 1990 when General Ershad had to resign after a popular uprising.
I should also mention that Jaijaidin was first published on 8 October 1984 and it immediately requested its readers to take part in monthly opinion poll to elect the best of television programmes, artistes, newscasters, etc. They elected the best of 1984, the result of which was announced in March 1985 at a public function at Sheraton Hotel which was attended by dignitaries including Sheikh Hasina. In fact many of JJD readers who were young and students, had become familiar in opinion poll process since 1984. That is why, in spite of the absence of computers and financial constraint, we could conduct the opinion poll of March 1986.
Weekly opinion poll for Spectrum Radio
In August 1986 I was sent to exile in London. At that time UK had state-owned BBC radio and television and also privately owned television companies but not privately owned radio companies. From 1987, I campaigned for licences to be given to private radio stations and joined with other persons who had been pursuing the same goal. Mrs Margaret Thatcher was the then prime minister of UK and she was MP from my area that is Finchley, London. I contacted her. Our goal was achieved on 25 June 1990 when UK's first privately owned multi-lingual radio station, Spectrum Radio, began broadcasting from Endeavour House, Brent Cross, North London. As the founder finance director and later CEO of Spectrum Radio, I became involved in opinion poll. But, this time surveys were conducted professionally by The Joint Industry Committee for Radio Audience Research (JICRAR). Spectrum Radio was then broadcasting in more than 15 languages including, Bengali, Hindi/Urdu, Chinese, Arabic, Italian, Hebrew, etc. We wanted to find out which language and which programme was commanding how many listeners. Polls were taken every week by JICRAR. Advertisement income of Spectrum depended on their report. At that time, I began to know about latest opinion poll technique and its history
It all started in US
Opinion poll began in US in 1924. In that year Hamsburg Pennsylvanian after conducting a poll locally, reported that of the two presidential candidates, Andrew Jackson was ahead compared to John Quincy Adams. According to the survey Jackson had received 335 votes and Adams 1169. Such local polls based on small samples were conducted in cities and were known as Straw Poll. In 1916 in an attempt to increase circulation, Lierary Digest conducted a nation-wide opinion poll and correctly forecast that Woodrow Wilson would be elected president. To carry out this survey, Literary Digest had mailed thousands of postcards around the country and hand counted the postcards which were retuned. Note that, some 70 years later Jaijaidin had carried out the first ever opinion poll in Bangladesh almost exactly in the same way. Also note that, prior to this, successive military rule since 1958 in this land had made people fearful in expressing their opinion publicly. That is why probably nobody had made any attempt to conduct a nationwide opinion poll.
Anyway, in US, Literary Digest had correctly predicted the winners in the next four presidential elections. In 1936, Literary Digest went wrong. 2.3 million "voters" had taken part in their survey and it was a very big sample. But all these voters belonged to affluent class and were Republican Party supporters. Just one week before the election, Literary Digest reported that the Republican candidate Alf London was more popular than the Democrat Franklin Roosevelt. At the same time, George Gallup had carried out a survey in a scientific manner based on a much smaller sample but more representatives of various classes of people. Gallup had predicted Roosevelt would win by a landslide. After this, survey work by Literary Digest stopped and the paper ceased publication.
You may note that, after 75 years, Prothom Alo and Daily Star have committed the same error.
Another American, Elmo Roper, came forward to conduct opinion polls on scientific basis. Elmo Roper correctly forecast that President Roosevelt would be re-elected successively three times in 1936, 1940 and 1944. Louis Harris was another American who was also conducting opinion poll on scientific basis since 1947. Later on he joined Roper's firm.
In the meantime George Gallup opened a subsidiary office in UK. In 1945, Gallup correctly predicted that Labour Party would win the election. All others had predicted that Tory Party led by Winston Churchill, World War II hero, would win. The correct prediction by Gallup established his credibility in UK Opinion poll became a regular feature of many daily newspapers in UK.
It is also true that both in US and UK, opinion polls went wrong at some times. In 1948 it was forecast that Republican candidate Thomas Dewey would win by a big margin against Democrat Harry Truman. Both Roper and Gallup had made that forecast. But, Truman won.
Likewise, in UK, polltakers could not correctly predict that in 1970 Tory Party and in 1974 Labour Party would win. In 1992, all polltakers forecast that Labour Party led by Neil Kinnock would win. But that election was won by Tory Party led by John Major. Apart from these mishaps, generally speaking, polltakers have correctly forecast in US and UK.
Gallup's suggestion
After the fall of Ershad regime, I returned to Bangladesh in early 1992 and republished weekly Jaijaidin. Again, I conducted some surveys on political and non-political issues with the participation of readers. I was fully aware, such surveys were biased. So, I detached the survey work from my magazine and formed an organisation called Social Survey to conduct bias-free opinion polls. To put Social Survey on a scientific basis I went to London and met Ms Merrill James who was then the Chief Officer of Gallup International Ltd.
Ms Merrill frankly told me that Gallup International's 90 per cent income generates from non-political surveys, such as, which is more popular, Coke or Pepsi? If Coke is more popular, then what are the reasons? Is it its taste, price, can's design and colour or the ease of availability? Is KFC more popular than Pizza Hut? If so, why? Is it because consumers are non-vegetarian ?
Ms Merrill informed survey woks are carried out not only for such products, but also for large projects, such as, building extensions of Heathrow Airport. At that time people were objecting to expansion of Heathrow Airport which would have caused more noise pollution. UK government wanted to know the opinion of the local people. Bangladesh government is now planning to build a mega airport in Munshiganj. But would the government carry out an opinion poll of the local population there?
Ms Merrill said that, Gallup's main income generates from such government and multi-national contracts. But chances of getting such contracts in Bangladesh are dim and any firm which has Gallup's standard, cannot possibly be commercially viable in Bangladesh.
That is why I could not build a formal relationship with Gallup International. At a later stage, Social Survey stopped polltaking.
However, in mid-'90s, some newspapers began publishing the results of opinion polls. They were readers based and consequently biased. Hence, they were not reliable.
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Shafik Rehman is a writer, editor, TV programme presenter, chartered accountant
http://opinion.bdnews24.com/2011/01/24/opinion-polls-and-municipal-polls-error-vs-reality/
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