What's holding BNP back?
With the government putting on a poor performance, it seems BNP has a movement tailor-made. But inner conflict and other factors are holding it
by ANWAR PARVEZ HALIM
Nowhere near any resolution to the power crisis, the government has put the price of electricity up once again. The prices of essentials are on a constant upward crawl, much to the sufferings of the common people. And the gas shortage adds to the torment. The opposition, in protest of this deplorable state of affairs, observed a dawn-to-dusk hartal (general strike) on February 7. The hartal was a success and was more or less peaceful, save the burning of a few vehicles in the capital city. While the opposition may take credit for bringing about a successful hartal, to all appearances the government almost literally handed them the issues in a plate.
The hartal was sparked off when there was an angry mass uprising over the government's plan to construct an airport on Arial Beel and when, subsequently, a case was filed against Opposition Leader Begum Khaleda Zia for allegedly instigating the agitation. BNP's leadership feels that the hartal was a success as the people responded spontaneously to their call due to the abject failure of the Awami League-led mahajote (grand alliance) government in running the country.
Then during the recent municipal elections, BNP's victory was even beyond their own expectations. The results of the municipals polls made the government shed some of its complacence and take a reality check. The government had been thinking it was only the urban population that was irked by the high cost of living, but that the rural people were happy with the government's development initiatives in agriculture and other sectors. This prompted them to go for the municipal elections first, rather than the Dhaka City Corporation election. But these polls proved to be a wake up call for the government; their calculations were proven utterly wrong. As a result, the votes went in favour of BNP.
The fact of the matter is that the government failed to keep its commitments to the people for the last two years. The people responded accordingly. Analysts are fast to point out that the results of these polls does in no way mean that BNP had any special charisma to win over the voters or that their politics has grown strong once again. BNP, shattered during the 1/11 rule of the caretaker government, is still organisationally in a poor state. Afflicted with rifts and groupings, the party is yet to restore itself to its original state. Even at a field level the party is behest with inner conflict, leaving its disorganised at the grassroots. Observers see no long-term plans or programmes of the party. The central leaders lack in commitment. They are simply using the BNP 'brand' for their own convenience. A well-wisher of the party accuses these leaders of being 'takers', when it comes to the party, not 'givers'.
In Khandakar Musharraf Hossain's group are Barrister Moudud Ahmed, Sadeq Hossain Khoka, Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, Nazrul Islam Khan, Amanullah Aman, RA Ghani and Dr. Osman Farukh. Sources say, after the 1/11 takeover, those who sided with reformist Mannan Bhuiyan, are now all against Khandakar Delwar Hossain. This group is dead against seeing Delwar continue as party Secretary General.
Then there is another group within BNP comprising former civil and military bureaucrats. At the centre of this group are former Foreign Secretary Shamser Mobin Chowdhury, Sabihuddin Ahmed and former IGP Qayyum. These three bureaucrats have been friends since their student life. This group advises the party Chairperson on various issues. They have clean images inside and outside of the party, but tend to play safe and do not come effectively forward against wrongdoings within the party. This does not bode well for the party's internal democracy.
The controversial Khandakar Delwar
On December 8, 2009, at the party's Fifth Council, Begum Khaleda Zia announced Khandakar Delwar Hossain as party Secretary General and Fakhrul Islam Alamgir as Senior Joint Secretary General. Many within the senior leadership were unhappy with this selection, having wanted to see Fakhrul Islam Alamgir in the seat of Secretary General. Later Khandakar Delwar Hossain was given the condition that he would have to leave the post on his own accord and then Fakhrul Islam Alamgir would take over office. It has been a year since then, but there are no signs of Khandakar Delwar budging from his seat. The group opposed to his is fast losing their patience.
The pro-Delwar camp contends that he stood up for Begum Zia in the face of all adversity during the rule of Dr. Fakhruddin's caretaker government, not even fearing the ire of the army. And that is why Begum Zia is unwilling to remove him so easily. But his critics say that he lacks the qualities and characteristics required of a leader of a large political party like BNP. He lacks in experience, merit, strong leadership qualities, organisational skills, popularity and physical fitness. His age is against him too. They want him to be replaced by a person with dynamic leadership skills. In this regard, Fakhrul Islam Alamgir is a gentleman, honest, a man of integrity and relatively young. However, there are views within the party that there really is no totally qualified leader to ably run BNP as Secretary General.
Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir was made Senior Joint Secretary General at the behest of Tarique Rahman. He had chosen him as an alternative to Khandakar Delwar. At the same time, sources say, Tarique also has full support for Delwar. In fact, this support is the source of Delwar's strength. Delwar goes according to Tarique's directives. That is why despite the heavy opposition against Delwar, Khaleda Zia is not about to dislodge him any time soon.
In the meantime, the party's Dhaka City committee could not be formed as yet due to the conflict between Mirza Abbas and Sadeq Hossain Khoka. Even Begum Zia herself could not resolve this fracas between the two leaders. Observers say that Mirza Abbas's strength lies in the Motijheel-Bashabo belt and that he does not have control over the city. Bashabo is a Jamaat stronghold and Jamaat supports Khoka. Having been the Mayor of Dhaka for the past eight years, Khoka has control over every ward. The ward commissioners and ward-level leaders get all sorts of benefits and so naturally are Khoka's followers. So in the balance of strength, it would be natural for Khoka to be the leader of the city committee. However, not being in Tarique Rahman's good books for whatever the matter may be, Khoka remains in limbo. As a result of the Khoka-Abbas conflict, quarters within BNP fear that the Dhaka City Corporation elections may ultimately not go in their favour.
Analysts say that though BNP's supports are all set, the party has been unable to launch an effective anti-government movement due to lack of farsightedness. They are failing to use the issues which are looming large in front of them.
What does BNP want?
Whatever rhetoric the mahajote leaders of the government may spew out in front of the TV cameras, the fact remains that over the two years they have been able to display no success, other than in the field of agriculture. Other than two or three ministers, the cabinet has been ineffective. The municipal elections were a clear indicator that public opinion would soon sway away from the government if its performance continues thus.
The question remains as to whether BNP will be able to use this opportunity to draw the people towards it. After all, the party's stand on certain issues still remains unclear. Their stand on war crimes and Jamaat remains hazy. Will they go ahead sans Jamaat or maintain their alliance for the sake of votes? Their stance concerning India is also not clear. After the 1/11 caretaker rule, BNP is gradually losing its friends on the international scene.
Now is the time for Khaleda Zia to face all these challenges and emerge before the people with BNP as the main alternative force. Her first task would be to consolidate the party. Emotions must be out aside and ground reality should be the basis of decisions concerns the party. If the party can highlight the government's failures to the people and put forward effective programmes, the people will be ready to rally in its support, say political commentators.
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