Arab uprisings: implications for Bangladesh
Bangladeshi refugees who fled Libya line up for food distribution at the Choucha refugee camp, near the Tunisian border town of Ras Jdir. — AF
In these days of high food and commodity price, Bangladesh is fumbling for any sort of adjustment and coordination among different sectors. It is also struggling with its numerous internal problems and gradually the entire condition is just deteriorating. In this situation, the countries on which our economy is highly dependent, especially for remittance, the highest earning sector for the country, are now plunged into a sea of difficulty, which is ultimately affecting our economy adversely, write Ashraful Azad and M Mizanur Rahman
IN THIS era of globalisation when each and every country in the world is connected by the same thread, a slight change in one country has an impact on other countries, especially if the countries have economic relations or dependency. Again, after the cold war, political economy took a new turn and dimension which ultimately gave birth to a new idea of neo-colonialism in the world. So, the political uprising, especially in the Middle East and Sudan, has fed the thinkers with some new thoughts on some upcoming, of course still imagined, days for the political economy of Bangladesh.
In spite of the democratisation of most of the countries of the world, resource-blessed Arab lands stayed in the hands of autocrats. Democratic cultures, most importantly freedom of expression, have been suppressed with cruelty. And the Western powers, who claim to be the torchbearers of democracy, openly fostered the regional strongmen. The biggest lobbying groups of the West, namely arms producers and petroleum tycoons, managed political recognition and arms supply for the authoritarian rulers in exchange of valuable oil revenue and silence on the Israel issue.
But the lesson of history is that none can keep the people silent for an indefinite period. People just waited for a chance. And the moment has come. Protest began in Tunisia when an unemployed graduate set himself on fire as the police did not permit him to sell vegetables without a permit. After days of protests, the Tunisian president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali fled his country on January 15 after ruling it for 23 years. Then 18 days of heated protests ended the 30-year long rule of the Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak.
Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi is now fighting for survival after 42 years' autocracy. There is no doubt that he will be toppled soon. The Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, and the Yemeni president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, are using the army to suppress popular uprisings. The situation is almost the same in other major Arab cities. Can bullets stop such popular revolts? Except the blind supporters of the autocrats, everybody will say no. Many have found secret US diplomacy encouraging these revolts. If the United States really wants democracy in the Middle East, where was it in the previous years? The US has not dictated but followed the events. US policymakers know that not supporting the movements will deprive them of good relations with the future governments. Whatever the events, we can assume that most of the Arab governments will be changed more or less in favour of the people.
Now let us analyse how these uprisings are influencing and will influence Bangladesh. The influence is mainly economic. Bangladesh is dependent on Middle Eastern countries, mainly for remittance inflow and oil import. Some political impacts may come in future which is going to be pointed out later.
Around 60 lakh Bangladeshis live in the Middle East. Remittance from these expatriates is the biggest source of foreign money inflow of the country. Recently the amount has surpassed the largest export item, ready-made garments, accounting for about $11 billion in 2009-2010 of which $7.22 billion was sent from the Middle Eastern countries. But since last year, manpower export has been declining. According to labour and employment minister Khandaker Mosharraf Hossain, manpower export had fallen 21 per cent. He said 385,000 Bangladeshi workers had gone abroad in 2010 compared to 475,000 in 2009. According to the expatriates' welfare and overseas employment ministry, only two Bangladeshi workers received permission to go to Iraq in January 2011 against around 2,288 workers in 2010. Libya took 12,132 workers from Bangladesh in 2010 but is yet to hire a single worker this year. The trend is also same for other worker-receiving countries. The reason behind this trend is a different discussion. But the already downward movement of manpower export has been exacerbated by recent uprisings. Of the 95,194 Bangladeshi workers in Libya (expatriates' welfare and overseas employment ministry data, as of January 2011), 22,047 were brought back from February 28 to March 15, 2011 following the fighting between rebel and government forces. The future of other workers is uncertain as most of the construction works where Bangladeshi workers were involved remain stopped due to fighting. If the same kind of fighting begins in other Arab cities, the fate of migrant workers will be filled in darkness. Thousands of Bangladeshi families are dependent on them and the money for reducing large international trade deficits come from the labour of these workers. How will the government of Bangladesh manage this loss? It is urgent for the government to think about it and find an escape strategy if the situation deteriorates.
Another issue of concern for the Bangladesh economy is the rising price of oil. On March 27, the price of a barrel of crude oil was about $106, the highest since the peak $147 during the 2008 crisis. As a result of the Middle Eastern strife, the increase in oil price alone can lead to global economic slowdown similar to the ones seen during the Arab oil embargo in 1972, the Iranian revolution in 1978 and Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Since the end of last year, the price of oil rose to $23 per barrel or about 25 per cent. Because of the uprisings, the price is going high everyday. In any emergency, Saudi Arabia can fulfil the scarcity with its spare capacity. If the Saudi regime faces fierce protests which is a near possibility, who will come to save the world? Yes, the disturbances will be settled. But until that period, the economies have to face danger as the world economy is already plunged by the Japanese tsunami and nuclear crisis.
In 2010, Bangladesh consumed 82,340 barrels of oil per day. So, it is not hard to calculate how much the economy of Bangladesh has to pay as a result of oil price hike. This will surely halt the pace of growth and extract more money from the consumers who are already in a critical situation with the increase in commodity prices.
In these days of high food and commodity price, Bangladesh is fumbling for any sort of adjustment and coordination among different sectors. It is also struggling with its numerous internal problems and gradually the entire condition is just deteriorating. In this situation, the countries on which our economy is highly dependent, especially for remittance, the highest earning sector for the country, are now plunged into a sea of difficulty, which is ultimately affecting our economy adversely. So, now is the time to develop a more integrated and adjusted economy for its survival forgetting political or personal interests.
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Ashraful Azad is working in research communications and M Mizanur Rahman is a development researcher and an assistant director at D.Net.
http://newagebd.com/newspaper1/op-ed/14793.html
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