[Attachment(s) from Isha Khan included below]
AL's Backing Shamim: Hasina gave in to tears, intelligence
Selina Hayat Ivy's landslide victory in the Narayangaj City Corporation polls should not surprise Awami League chief and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Many of her party leaders had forecast the result even late last month as they implored her to support Ivy instead of controversial Shamim Osman.
Both Ivy and Shamim belong to the ruling AL, but Shamim lacks the clean image that Ivy has.
Initially Hasina appeared open to supporting Ivy, but she changed her mind and chose Shamim ignoring her trusted party men. She trusted an intelligence report that predicted Shamim's victory. Shamim's tearful plea to give him a chance also moved Hasina, according to some senior AL leaders close to the party chief. The leaders spoke on condition of anonymity because of sensitivity of the subject.
Talking to The Daily Star, well-placed AL leaders said the early feedbacks from Narayanganj had convinced them that Ivy was more popular than Shamim.
These feedbacks gave the impression that Ivy was likely to bag up to 130,000 votes, Shamim 75,000 and Taimur 60,000 votes out of four lakh. "Many of our leaders received hundreds of phone calls from strangers and friends in Narayanganj urging us to support Ivy, saying that she was most popular now," said a party source, requesting anonymity.
A cabinet member, who is an influential confidant of the prime minister, pointed out that some AL leaders in their individual capacity rallied support for one candidate or the other. The minister cited examples of three central organising secretaries who lent support to Shamim while most of AL Narayanganj unit stood behind Ivy.
"Those who went to Narayanganj to support Shamim Osman did so on their own, and those of us who preferred to remain silent on the matter also did it on our own," the cabinet member said.
What could have happened had the party supported Ivy, instead of just embracing her after her victory?
"If we had extended party support to Ivy, we could have demonstrated the extent of our popularity in an environment where anti-government criticisms have become widespread," another party source said.
The ruling party found both gain and loss in the Ivy episode.
"We have proven that election can be free and fair under our government. We have demonstrated that the ruling party did not entertain baseless allegations of the party- backed candidate against the administration," he said.
The same view was echoed by the cabinet member, saying that the party would like to consider the polls results more as a "victory for fair polls" rather than victory of one pro-AL candidate over the other.
An leader, who is also a cabinet member, claimed that the party had never formally endorsed any particular mayoral candidate. "There was no discussion in any of the party forums on extending such support," the leader noted.
However, another leader disagreed, saying that the prime minister met Shamim twice on the issue. At the last meeting held in early last month, Shamim refused an offer to quit the mayoral race in exchange of becoming a state minister as an "honourable exit." Shamim was tearful in making his point to the prime minister. The PM then relented.
The PM also met Ivy and asked her to withdraw from the contest. Ivy declined, saying she was sure that she would win. She was offered candidacy in the next parliamentary election, but she stood her ground. She argued that she had served the municipality before, and Shamim was a parliamentarian. "Let him be an MP and let me be the mayor."
AL insiders say Hasina does not consider Shamim as a criminal since he was not "an extortionist" or "gangster". She thinks Shamim's reputation was tainted by his demonstration of muscle power against BNP.
"Shamim is a brave and devoted leader. When Hasina returned to Bangladesh in 1981, she was under constant murder threat by Freedom Party men (now defunct). Shamim was one of the young leaders who boldly provided her security. So, from that point of view, she has sympathy for Shamim," said a party source.
The victory of Ivy was also a victory of clean politics. It's the victory of an honest person over a candidate with a track record of violence.
Will the AL learn a lesson from this and consider public opinion over intelligence reports while selecting future candidates? The leaders said they will discuss the issues among themselves soon before talking to Hasina.
Some party insiders said nowadays Hasina was less open to hear voices in the party. There are some senior leaders who could argue with her on a right point, but when such issues are raised and Hasina opposes them, these leaders change their mind and start supporting her.
"But we believe the prime minister will review the Narayanganj polls on the basis of facts and reach a wise conclusion," said the source.
http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=208810-----------
Pre-Election poll by DemocracyForum Narayanganj City Corporation election 2011 (See the attached PDF file)
Attachment(s) from Isha Khan
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