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Friday, December 4, 2009

[mukto-mona] Confusion within / End of the World




"Turning and turning in the widening gyre; The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity. Surely some revelation is at hand; Surely the Second Coming is at hand".  Yeats

Perhaps it will be Eight billion years or Eight seconds from now--life on earth can come to end (for me). My dear, what is life but the elements structured; what is death—same elements dispersed and diffused. Who knows I might even get sucked into the black hole, gamma ray bursts, solar flares, the death of the sun---endless possibilities! Hazrat Copernicus told us that our Sun is but one of 100,000 million Stars in the Milky Way Galaxy!!! It is mind-boggling to think that 'we human beings even count' in the grand scheme of things. One has to be a narcissist and a psycho of a first order to even entertain the idea that he is a VIP. We are suffering from this collective unconsciousness. We are suffering from mass psychosis. We have allowed our egos to turn us into deadly bores, dull, witless, gutless, shameless and pathological. If I knew the end of the world is near I will feel exalted! I don't have to worry about making money to support myself for rest of my life. I would live in this moment; you see this moment is the eternity; there is no other moment. Eternity is this moment. Infinity is this moment. End of the world is in this moment. Recreation of the world is in this moment. This is the search. This is the shore. I am the boat and this is the shore. This is the place; nowhere to go. Observer and the observed is the same. Worshipper and the worshipped is the same. Devdas believes—there is nothing special and unique about him. He knows that he is just food for the worms. End of story. No heaven for him.

SaifDevdas
islam1234@msn.com






From: mushtaq1@msn.com
To: funloverbuet76@yahoogroups.com
Subject: RE: Food for thought : will there be Cop 15 consensus: Global Warming & confusions within
Date: Sun, 29 Nov 2009 13:40:20 -0500




The nature cannot be tamed ( no and yes-- we dam mighty rivers to produce electricity for example-- but may be not the type of tectonic movements as yet) but be used to our benefit -- "science is not going against nature but using it Right (to our benefit) and working within its laws(natural/bio-physical)". we exploit nature -- likewise within the geologic continuum, the anthropogenic part of it (that is contributed by human beings) is part of the so called development processes (like GHG from agriculture, industrial and power generating activities) that could be capped and provide us with some breathing space. 

What is happening through for eg., the clear-cut logging in the amazons and in the up north in the US Canada and the Russian tundra (losing earth's carbon sinks/sequestered carbon, etc), the rapid industrialization and associated improved diets (more meat in diet, though the Chinese are taking the blame for changing dietary habits as if others are not-- as the world bovine population quadrupled and so did their enteric fermentation, Fert for simple, are adding huge amount of methane to atmosphere, etc)  is simply alarming.

Time line in geologic sense is millennium,  but we are cutting short human sustenance process by our own activities (destroying the biomes to support the earthlings) -- think feeding 50% more population (9 billion over current number) by 2050. With development going the way as it is -- meeting the basic needs among others, as Lester Pearson in his art that I shared with you mentions,  will leave the future generations to pay very very dearly and that will be the final tripping point for mankind -- a cataclysmic end and not the Big Bang from heaven. A made in earth solution (annihilation).

Mushtaq
Ottawa






Date: Sat, 28 Nov 2009 23:10:09 -0800
Subject: Re: [funloverBUET76] Global Warming & confusions within

 
"There is no way that you can tame the nature...... ...bhuiyan (mhb)"
Bhuiya, there you are.
 
Yes sir, you are right, it is simply impossible to tame the nature, nature will take its
course with the time. The causes of these changes are more of geologocal.
 
See below how nature works with time & you can't control it
 
"Mountain Ranges
While new ocean crust is constantly being created at mid-ocean ridges, old crust must either be destroyed or reduced at the same rate (or else the planet would be continually expanding and increasing in volume). The plates, therefore, emerging along mid-ocean ridges, sliding over the athenosphere, and grinding past other plates along transform faults, are almost all headed on a collision course. When two continents carried on converging plates ram into each other, they crumple and fold under the enormous pressure, creating great mountain ranges.

The highest mountain range in the world, the snow-capped Himalayas, is an example of a continent-to-continent collision. This immense mountain range began to form when two large landmasses, India and Eurasia, driven by tectonic plate movement, collided. Because both landmasses have about the same rock density, one plate could not be subducted under the other. The pressure of the colliding plates could only be relieved by thrusting skyward. The folding, bending, and twisting of the the collision zone formed the jagged Himalayan peaks. This string of towering peaks is still being thrust up as India, embedded in the Indo-Australian Plate, continues to crunch relentlessly into Tibet, on the southern edge of the Eurasian Plate.

India collides with Asia and the Himalayas are bornHere's a more detailed chronological explanation.
About 220 million years ago, India was an island situated off the Australian coast, and separated from the Asian continent by a vast ocean called the Tethys Sea. When Pangaea broke apart about 200 million years ago, India began to move northward. Scientists have been able to reconstruct India's northward journey. When India rammed into Asia about 50 million years ago, its northward advance slowed. The collision and decrease in the rate of plate movement mark the beginning of the Himalayan uplift.

Fossilized Sea Shells near Himalayan Peaks?
When archaeologists found the fossilized remains of ancient sea-creatures near the peaks of the Himalayas they were, understandably, puzzled. Intriguing questions were raised. Was there once an ocean or other large body of water at the top of this enormous mountain range? Unlikely.

Had the entire planet, Himalayas and all, at some point in Earth's long history, been submerged underwater? Possibly - but highly improbable. No theory could fully explain this apparent paradox. Until the theory of plate tectonics was put forth.

Briefly, it goes like this: As the Indo-Australian Plate, with India firmly embedded, approached the Eurasian continent 20 million years ago, its leading edge, comprised of oceanic crust, was first to be crumpled and uplifted. Slowly, the Himalayas rose and the leading oceanic crust of the Indian sub-continent, carrying the fossilized remains of its ancient ocean inhabitants, was thrust up by the crumpling crust in its wake. Thus, plate tectonics explains how the majestic peaks of one of the world's great mountain ranges were once the deep sea-floors of an ancient drifting plate.
The European Alps have been formed in similar fashion, starting some 80 million years ago when the outlying continental fragments of the African Plate collided with the Eurasian Plate. Unyielding pressure between the two plates continues even today, resulting in the gradual closing up of the Mediterranean Sea.

Andes Mountain RangeGrowing Mountains
As an underlying oceanic plate tips down, its ocean-floor sediment is scraped off along the front edge of the overriding continental plate. The result is an increase in the width and thickness of the overriding plate. This could be why the Andes, a long mountain range bordering the west coast of South America, appears to be growing higher. Perhaps sediment from the Nazca Plate, which is diving under South America in the Peru-Chile Trench, is scraping off on the roots of the Andes. This scraping adds thickness and buoyancy to the mountains so that they float upward more rapidly than their peaks can be eroded by wind and rain."
 
 
 
keep well
regards
saleh


To: funloverBUET76@yahoogroups.com
Date: Sunday, November 29, 2009, 5:21 PM

 
D/Saleh,
There is no chance that we would be free from global warming effect. Even if we get the money our so called political leaders would loot the money like before & would settle  else where.I also do not think we are capable of handling such problem such magnitude.
In the coming days the people of the deep south have to brace such calamities like before. I guess global warming will create lot of miseries & hardship who are going to meet it. Do you think money or any other method people can revert  the problem created by human being for so many years. There is no way that you can tame the nature...... ...bhuiyan (mhb)
 
 

To: funloverBUET76@ yahoogroups. com
Date: Saturday, November 28, 2009, 12:52 PM

 
Dear Bhuiya & others
Eid Mubarak to all.
This topic of global warming & its related affect on our life is going on for
the last 10/15 yrs specially the Ex Vice President of USA MR Al Gore took it
head on.
While I was personally very alarmed & started to think about this reading there
many articles & scientific research etc, I was also confused seeing many articles
against these findings, research etc. Now I heard it is again "money" which is
the root for this campaign.
"Critics, mostly on the political right and among global warming skeptics, say Mr. Gore is poised to become the world's first "carbon billionaire," profiteering from government policies he supports that would direct billions of dollars to the business ventures he has invested in"
 
In the West many big companies spend a millions of dollars as doantions/grant to do research in many famous educational/ research facilities. Quite often these research findings do a very good advertisement for their products, some times it turns to a dirty game
as rivalirities in different companies try to out do each other by these research/counter research findings.
The western world started this concern about global warming
etc, interestingly the same countries are also having so many Govt/NonGovt organisations
who are telling us a different version of the problem. Read the following article & see the what they say, pl have patience to go through.
 
 

"What If All the Ice Melts?" Myths and Realities

by Wm. Robert Johnston
last updated 29 December 2005
(See Comments on global warming for a general discussion of the science of global warming.)
"If we keep using cars, the ice caps will melt and we'll all drown!" This is a myth, just as false as fearing the Sun will die as a result of using solar power. However, as often as I hear it--particularly from people who should know better--I thought I would address it here. First, here is a summary of the facts:
  • Despite what you may have been told, it has NOT been proven that human-caused global warming is occurring, and in fact there is substantial reason to reject such claims.
  • The best explanation for the evidence is that whatever global warming trend exists is mostly the result of natural influences like variations in the climate system and variations in solar radiation.
  • The suggestions that human activities will cause significant changes in global temperature and sea level in the next century are flawed predictions which haven't been confirmed by observations.
  • The solutions to this apparently non-existent problem proposed by environmentalists would not have a significant effect on climate, but they would cause a significant amount of human suffering.
  • Based on what we know now, in the next 100 years a rise in sea level of 0.1 meters (4 inches) would not be surprising; those predicting changes of 0.5-2 meters (1.5-7 feet) are using flawed models.
  • If all the icecaps in the world were to melt, sea level would rise about 60-75 meters (200-250 feet). This could not result from modern human activities, and from any realistic cause would take thousands of years to occur.
I have discussed the first four points (which are non-trivial and deserve extended discussion) in Global warming, Some scientific data on global climate change, and "Facts disprove warnings about global warming", and the fifth point in Facts and figures on sea level rise. I will mostly address the last point--not just to dispel the notion that we need worry, but also because it is a valid and interesting thing to be curious about.
I. The world's ice
Currently the Earth has permanent ice in the icecaps of Antarctica and Greenland, plus much smaller permanent glaciers in various mountain regions of the world. This ice is "permanent", however, only over the short timespan of modern human civilization. Additionally there are two large ice sheets floating in seas off Antarctica, plus floating pack ice in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding Antarctica. Geological evidence indicates very clearly that at times in the Earth's past icecaps were much larger in extent--and alternately, at other times icecaps were virtually nonexistent.
Currently there are about 30,000,000 cubic kilometers of ice in the world's icecaps and glaciers. This volume of ice is fairly well measured (within 5-15%) by surveying the top of the icecaps with methods like radar and laser altimetry, locating the bottom of the ice with methods like seismic soundings, and calculating the difference. A breakdown is as follows:
World ice inventory
Location Volume (km3) Fraction of
world ice
Change in volume
since 1960 (km3) **
comments
Continental glaciers and ice fields* 87,000 (± 10,000) [1] 0.29 % -4,700 [2,3,4] grounded
Greenland ice cap 2,930,000 (2,620,000 to 3,000,000) [5,6,7,8,9] 9.8 % -2,000 [6,10,11,12, 13,14] grounded
Greenland continental glaciers ~50,000 (± 20,000?) [15] 0.17 % -350 [3,4] grounded
Arctic Ocean pack ice 16,000 summer, 24,000 winter [16,17] 0.01 % -3,000 [16,18,29] floating
East Antarctic Ice Sheet 23,000,000 (21,800,000 to 26,040,000) [5,6,8,19] 76.8 % +10,000 [6,20,21] grounded
West Antarctic Ice Sheet 3,000,000 (3,000,000 to 3,260,000) [5,19] 10.0 % -4,500 [21,22,23] grounded
Antarctic Peninsula ice cap 227,000 [5,24] 0.76 % (included with EAIS) grounded
Antarctic continental glaciers ~50,000 (± 20,000?) [15] 0.17 % -700 [3,4] grounded
Ross Ice Shelf 230,000 [24] 0.77 % -2,000 [26,27] floating
Ronne-Filcher ice shelves 344,000 [25] 1.17 % -2,000 [26,27] mostly floating
South polar pack ice 4,000 summer, 19,000 winter [28] 0.08 % +100 [28] floating
Total world ice ~29,960,000 100 % -9,150
--grounded ice only ~29,340,000 97.9 % -2,250 grounded
--floating ice only ~620,000 2.1 % -6,900 floating
Notes to table: These values are approximate; sources are given, which have in some cases been indirectly used to estimate volumes; errors in interpretation should be assigned to me, not to the original sources.
* Continental glaciers and ice fields--outside Greenland and Antarctica.
** Changes in volume are very uncertain; these values may be taken as illustrative. In most cases these are measurements over a limited time range extrapolated to the total change in volume from 1960 to 2005. Some values are based on models, not directly on measurements.
Grounded ice is ice resting on the ground rather than floating. The melting of floating ice will not change sea level: the mass of this ice is equal to that of the water it displaces (watch the water level in a cup of floating ice cubes as they melt). For comparison, globally ice (both grounded and floating) represents about 2% of the world's water, with about 1,350,000,000 km3 of water in the oceans.
During the last Ice Age the maximum extent of glaciation was around 16,000 B.C. At that time large ice sheets covered all of Canada, much of the American midwest and northeast, all of Scandinavia and some surrounding regions of Eurasia. The total volume of ice then was perhaps 80,000,000 cubic kilometers, or between two and three times as much as today. Correspondingly, world sea level was about 120 meters lower [6,30].
II. Why melting is not a threat
While today's balance between the icecaps and global sea level has been relatively steady since about 1000 B.C., it would be careless to assume that this is the Earth's natural state and that it should always be this way. What could happen to climate naturally in the next few thousand years? If the Earth continued to warm and break from ice age conditions, some of the remaining ice caps could melt. On the other hand, climate might swing back into another ice age. (In fact, some of the environmentalists now worried about global warming were worried about another ice age in the 1960s and 1970s.)
In either case, such a change in climate would take thousands of years to accomplish. Note that it has taken 18,000 years to melt 60% of the ice from the last ice age. The remaining ice is almost entirely at the north and south poles and is isolated from warmer weather. To melt the ice of Greenland and Antarctica would take thousands of years under any realistic change in climate. In the case of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, which accounts for 80% of the Earth's current ice, Sudgen argues that it existed for 14,000,000 years, through wide ranges in global climate. The IPCC 2001 report states "Thresholds for disintegration of the East Antarctic ice sheet by surface melting involve warmings above 20° C... In that case, the ice sheet would decay over a period of at least 10,000 years." [31] The IPCC is the United Nations' scientific committee on climate change; its members tend to be the minority that predicts global warming and its statements tend to be exaggerated by administrators before release. Given that the IPCC tends to exaggerate the potential for sea level rise, it is clear that no scientists on either side of the scientific debate on global warming fear the melting of the bulk of Antarctica's ice. Consider also this abstract of an article by Jacobs contrasting scientific and popular understanding:
A common public perception is that global warming will accelerate the melting of polar ice sheets, causing sea level to rise. A common scientific position is that the volume of grounded Antarctic ice is slowly growing, and will damp future sea-level rise. At present, studies supporting recent shrinkage or growth depend on limited measurements that are subject to high temporal and regional variability, and it is too early to say how the Antarctic ice sheet will behave in a warmer world. [32]
This statement alludes to the significant point that the Antarctic ice cap appears to currently be growing rather than shrinking. In fact, were the climate to warm significantly in the next few centuries (not a certain future, but supposing it happened), current models suggest that Antarctica would gain ice, with increased snowfall more than offsetting increased melting.
How much concern should we have about the 20% of world ice outside the East Antarctic Ice Sheet? Some sources have recently discussed the "possible collapse" of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). It is suggested that this sheet (about 10% of Antarctic ice) could melt in the "near term" (a usefully vague phrase) and raise sea level 5 to 6 meters. Current understanding is that the WAIS has been melting for the last 10,000 years, and that its current behavior is a function of past, not current climate. [23] The abstract of an article by Alley and Whillans addresses this:
The portion of the West Antarctic ice sheet that flows into the Ross Sea is thinning in some places and thickening in others. These changes are not caused by any current climatic change, but by the combination of a delayed response to the end of the last global glacial cycle and an internal instability. The near-future impact of the ice sheet on global sea level is largely due to processes internal to the movement of the ice sheet, and not so much to the threat of a possible greenhouse warming. Thus the near-term future of the ice sheet is already determined. However, too little of the ice sheet has been surveyed to predict its overall future behavior. [34]
Similarly, recent stories have periodically appeared concerning the potential receding of the Greenland ice cap. Two points may be made regarding current understanding here. First, there is considerable disagreement as to the current rate of net ice cap loss--or even if there is net loss versus net gain. Second, even with temperature increases far greater than the dubious predictions of the IPCC, models indicate that Greenland's ice cap would take 2,000 to 10,000 years to disappear.
Some discussion of the concerns about near term sea level rise may be found in Facts and figures on sea level rise. The predictions that have been made for ice cap melting in the next century rely mostly on melting of glaciers in mountain regions, not melting of the polar ice caps. Even the pessimistic models cited by the IPCC tend to predict an increase in the volume of the Antarctic ice cap with warmer temperatures due to increased snowfalls. In general temperature changes of a few degrees do not seem to be sufficient to begin to melt the polar ice caps, particularly the Antarctic ice cap.
III. Imagining the world without ice caps
As long as we understand that the polar ice caps are not going to melt in the foreseeable future, we can proceed to imagine what the world would be like if they did melt.
Using the ice volume figures from above it is straightforward to estimate the effect on sea level were all this ice melted. Melting the 29,300,000 km3 of grounded ice would produce 26,100,000 km3 of water. Note that melting of floating ice has no effect on sea level. Also, about 2,100,000 km3 of the grounded ice in Antarctica is below sea level [19] and would be replaced by water. Thus, the net addition to the world's oceans would be about 24,000,000 km3 of water spread over the 361,000,000 km2 area of the world's oceans, giving a depth of 67 meters. The new ocean area would be slightly larger, of course, since some areas now land would be covered with water. The final result would be around 66 meters (current estimates range between 63 and 75 meters).
What would the Earth look like as a result? If sea level were 66 meters higher than today, the result would be as illustrated below (for the map I used below see this page):
Obviously some areas are affected more than others. Some larger areas now underwater are the southeastern United States, part of the Amazon River basin, northern Europe, Bangladesh, parts of Siberia along the Arctic Ocean, and portions of mainland China. A large area in Australia would be below sea level, but it is not joined to the ocean and could remain dry.
Above is a view of the lower 48 states of the United States with a 66-meter-higher sea level. Below are some closeups:
  • upper left: western Washington state and the Portland, Oregon area;
  • upper right: Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey;
  • lower left: central California, near San Francisco bay; and
  • lower right: south Texas, from Corpus Christi to Brownsville.
Both Greenland and Antarctica, free of ice, have areas that would be below sea level. However, with the weight of this ice removed, Greenland and Antarctica would rise higher--this phenomena is called isostatic rebound. This rebound lags behind the removal of the ice (by thousands of years). Eventually, most of Greenland would probably be above sea level. However, significant portions of Antarctica would remain underwater. This is shown below in a view of the southern hemisphere:
Today the Earth has 148 million sq. km of land area, of which 16 million sq. km is covered by glaciers. A sea level rise of 66 meters would flood about 13 million sq. km of land outside Antarctica. Without polar ice, Antarctica and Greenland would be ice free, although about half of Antarctica would be under water. Thus, ice-free land would be 128 million sq. km compared to 132 million sq. km today.
As a result, in terms of total habitable land area, the Earth might have more than today. The coastal areas reclaimed by the sea would be mostly offset by now habitable areas of Greenland and Antarctica. Again, remember that such climate change would take thousands of years. Over such time scales vegetation would be restored to newly ice-free regions even without human activity. Also, vast areas which are now desert and tundra would become more fit for human habitation and agriculture.
The illustrations above do not depict any changes in vegetation. In reality, local climates would be very different in ways that are currently difficult to predict. It might be that the warmer climate would lead to generally greater precipitation (this is suggested by comparison to the last ice age, when cooler temperatures caused expansion of the Sahara). Unfortunately, current models are not reliable enough to give a confident answer.
So why wouldn't people drown? Again, a change in the Earth this dramatic would take thousands of years to effect from any realistic cause. Over generations people would migrate as the coasts changed. Consider that virtually all of the settlements in the United States were established only in last 350 years. Of course, many settlements inhabited for thousands of years would have to be abandoned to the ocean--just as many would have to be abandoned if ice age conditions returned and covered vast areas with ice sheets. But people can comfortably adjust where they live over periods of decades, far shorter than the thousands of years needed for these climate changes to naturally take place. Also, that's if they occur, and we have no evidence to indicate what would happen to climate over the next few thousand years.
IV. A final comment
For those curious as to what the Earth would be like with the ice caps melted, this report has hopefully given an illustration, along with some perspective: this sort of change cannot be affected by modern human activity even given many centuries. It is sad that some youngsters think that burning of hydrocarbons could cause the ice caps to melt and drown cities; it is criminal when teachers don't correct this nonsense. And it should tell you much of environmental groups like the Sierra Club when they use such myths to further an extremist political agenda.
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  • [33] Sugden, D. E., 1996, "The East Antarctic Ice Sheet: unstable ice or unstable ideas?", Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 21:443-454.
  • [34] Alley, R. B., and I. M. Whillans, 15 Nov. 1991, "Changes in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet", Science, 254:959-962.

© 2002-2003, 2005 by Wm. Robert Johnston.
Last modified 29 December 2005.
Return to Home. Return to Environmental Topics.
 
Finally  I want to add  a personal statement, "reading & reading, knowing & knowing about this topic is driving me to a point where I became so confused that I went back to "holy koran ", it surprised me to read that there are so many ayats there which say that as man is mortal, so is the world, it will never exist forever, the day will come eventually as Tsnuami caught the whole world by surprise without any prior warning. The holy prophet Mohammad(SAW) told his companioins
"when the power of authority will pass to unfit persons, the hour will come ".
1400 yrs back we came to know about this doomsday/yom al qiyamah which now the westen world is predicting. But we don't know when it will come, it is the almighty Allah(SAW) who knows when the time will come. Rest are just man made curiosity where
may be "money making" is the ultimate goal.
May be I am sounding like a fool, but that is what I now beleive & go on to do my
day to day normal activities without putting all these conflicting opinions in my head, just want to see the day as another day which should be full of all the flavors of natural things
of life.

COLLECTION, PROMULGATION, RECITAL AND
EXPLANATION OF SURAHS UPHOLDING ALLAH'S (SWT)
COMMAND TO WITNESS AL-QIYAMAH
:

 
Regards
Saleh
.


 






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               -Beatrice Hall [pseudonym: S.G. Tallentyre], 190




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