China's phenomenal rise as an economic giant and a military power is definitely amazing but China can become a danger to world peace and regional security. From 1949 China lived mostly as a secluded nation and its communist system kept it outside the realm of global enlightenment. Historically China as a nation was full of wisdom but those fine qualities has all been virtually wiped out by a dumb communist totalitarian system. Chinese people's perception of the outside world is very limited and their intellectual qualities are virtually nil. A regimented society always suffers from limited knowledge which led to them to believe in fantasies. The economic miracle China is showing to the world is mot a magic in anyway. They are taking advantage of the capitalist world's selfishness to enrich some at the cost of millions. The inherent danger is just showing up among the rich western nations of the world whose economies are being ravaged by a recession at this time. The notion of a welfare state where citizens are taken care by the state is crumbling fast. They are realizing that those cozy days are long gone when everything was guaranteed.
Their population growth has dwindled, tax revenue falling, societies are overwhelmed by the number of immigrants who are not ready to share their values and the national debt is increasing everyday. China knows all these problems and smartly using their regimented cheap labor force to produce and supply commodities at an unbelievably lower cost. The western democracies are aware of the danger of this economic invasion but can't do anything to stop it. China is not a democracy and the present communist system is not going to open up soon. The economic advantages they are now enjoying as a mass producing nation will face immediate collapse if a democratic system is introduced.
In 1962 when China invaded northern India the reason was minimal but the real intention was to show its military prowess to an unprepared India. China's invasions of Tibet and Vietnam demonstrate its Communist regime will show its military muscle when it considers it necessary. However to a large extent China's rise has been based upon avoiding military actions although it is not showing any generous attitude to resolve differences with India, Vietnam, Taiwan and Japan. This attitude has already invited other powers to take sides causing alarm and international instability. Whilst China has attempted successfully to become a major economic power its support for rogue states such as Burma and North Korea does worry its neighbours. The realists who express concerns about the threat posed by China's rise claim it is potentially dangerous due to the decline of the United States and its own unpredictable foreign policy, not to mention its backing those countries that are also determined to undermine global stability.
There is no sign that China as a great power will show much impartial role due to its own limited understanding of the complex international relations. Its surprisingly high profile economic position must match its intellectual capability which is not possible in a regimented society. The international community while accepting Chinas predominant economic position but far from accepting its role as dominant global power. The communist regime is still not ready to accept democracy and openness. A billion strong population lives under a draconian rule, a clearly visible poverty level despite sky rocketing economic growth, very minimal effort is made to offer just and proper education based on freedom of expression.
These are very ominous signs for any nation that has a lofty aim but not prepared to accept the challenge of democracy. More concern for international stability would arguably have reflected China's growing reliance upon foreign trade to bankroll its economic growth and modernisation. China's rise can be traced back to the major economic reforms introduced in the late 1970s. But the demise of USSR and the collapse of the communist system could not influence the Chinese communist regime to change their course. Although the changes introduced by Deng Hsiao Ping were a tacit admission that Stalinist style industrialisation had failed to make China a regional let alone a global economic power. Yet the Chinese regime aimed to use those reforms to secure its domestic position and then challenge the economic power of Japan whilst weakening the regional position of the Americans. The Chinese successfully increased their regional and international links with countries such as Japan, South Korea, and the United States in order to promote high levels of economic growth that has conversely allowed funding an arms race with the Americans and the Japanese.
In the annals of history every century has its defining moments and in the 21st century the rise of opium drugged, mismanaged, revolutionary, regimented and almost hermit China's rise as a global power is a defining moment of this century. But the most troubling question is China ready for this role? An immensely powerful nation lacking a necessary global insight and openness can bring disaster for the entire world. Some observers believe that the American era is coming to an end, as the Western-oriented world order is replaced by one increasingly dominated by the East.
The historian Niall Ferguson has written that the bloody twentieth century witnessed "the descent of the West" and "a reorientation of the world" toward the East. Realists go on to note that as China gets more powerful and the United States' position erodes, two things are likely to happen: China will try to use its growing influence to reshape the rules and institutions of the international system to better serve its interests, and other states in the system -- especially the declining hegemony -- will start to see China as a growing security threat. The result of these developments, they predict, will be tension, distrust, and conflict, the typical features of a power transition. In this view, the drama of China's rise will feature an increasingly powerful China and a declining United States locked in an epic battle over the rules and leadership of the international system. And as the world's largest country emerges not from within but outside the established post-World War II international order, it is a drama that will end with the grand ascendance of China and the onset of an Asian-centered world order.
Akbar Hussain
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