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Thursday, July 7, 2016

[mukto-mona] Bangladesh: An Islamist Military Coup? A last ditch effort?




An old but relevant article!
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/bangladesh-islamist-military-coup

"Given the rise of Islamist radicalism in the country in recent years, the latest plot is not surprising. In addition to Bangladesh's Islamist political party, Jamaat-i-Islami, which has participated in mainstream electoral politics, a number of more radical groups have surfaced. These include banned jihadist groups like Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh, which has carried out numerous attacks, including the Aug. 17, 2005, countrywide bomb blasts, as well as Hizb al-Tahrir, which is a nonviolent but radical Islamist transnational party seeking to establish a caliphate. Hizb al-Tahrir's past activities lend credence to the government's claims that it was involved in the latest plot."

Since some BNP/Jamat people have been longing to reclaim their glorious days of late nineteen seventies, it would not be unthinkable that they cease the opportunity to merge with the extremists and grab the power. The critical question would be whether international community would tolerate such coup at this moment when Iraq and Syria are burning? Would the coup leaders be able to find strong backers? Would China give the moral support when they are facing music in Xingjiang province?

Let say, coup plotters grab the power and throw Islamist under the bus? Would that please US and India? BNP quickly becomes the new democratic hero of the town in a new bottle? Would that work?

Alternatively, the Islamist take the charge and start persecuting minorities, progressives and Awamis to establish their Bangla caliphate. In such scenario, all bets would be off. I say lifespan of that new regime would be a very short one. 




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Posted by: Shah DeEldar <shahdeeldar@gmail.com>


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