INDIA, BANGLADESH AND THE NORTHEAST - III
Transit and transshipment–strategic considerations
K.A.S. Murshid
Research Director, BIDS
All options have been left open under the agreement, namely use of railways, roads and the ports of Chittagong and Mongla. It is assumed that the preferred option for (Northeast) India would be to use the Chittagong port mainly for its trade with the rest of the world while its trade with the mainland would be either by road or rail (in addition to the already operational inland river route). However Bangladesh has to carefully consider which options or combination of options would be in its best interest.
The case against roads
There has been a phenomenal growth in both passenger and freight traffic in the region and Bangladesh has been no exception. Thus, over the period 1975 to 2005, total freight increased from 2.6 billion to 20 billion tons-km. During this time, the importance of road-based freight grew disproportionately, with the share of roads climbing from 35 per cent to 80 per cent, while rail freight declined from 28 per cent to only 4 per cent and IWT shares declined from 37 per cent to 16 percent (Table below).
Table 4: Change in Modal Share of Transport in Bangladesh, 1975-2005
Source:
At the same time, the expansion in the road network has been variable. Over the period 2001-09, the expansion in regional roads (connecting district towns to divisional headquarters) has been modest (140 percent over the entire period). National highways connecting divisional headquarters to the capital city grew only by 12 percent over the same period. The slow expansion could be due to pre-existing infrastructure already in place. Feeder roads expanded quite rapidly at around 10 per cent per annum.
Capacity, standards
The major arteries (i.e. National Highways) would be the most important infrastructure for road-based transit facilities if these were agreed. Since the direction of traffic on these highways is either to or from Dhaka (the capital), traffic is likely to be heavy. The Roads and Highways Department suggests (in the context of the Asian Highway roads over Bangladesh), the need for sizeable investments to bring the relevant road infrastructure to a suitable standard before opening up to transit trade.
Another indication of road capacity is the frequency of road accidents in the country. The growth rate of motor vehicles is 8 percent per annum (Hoque 2001) with one of the highest accident rates in the world. The total motor vehicle (MV) fleet is 1.2 m with 0.8 m licensed drivers. One study estimates there are 60 deaths per 10,000 MV (or 11.5 deaths per 100 km of road) - this compares with less than 20 deaths for India and only 2 for developed countries. Accidents also impose a huge cost on the economy - of around 2 percent of GDP (around Tk.5000 crores). The contribution of roads to total GDP is 5 percent – thus, accidents are something that policy makers can ill afford to ignore. It should also be obvious that a sudden increase in traffic concentrated on a few routes will increase the accident rate quite significantly.
Pilferage and leakages
There are real concerns with pilferage and leakages. Pilferage is a continuing problem with both road and rail traffic in India although the problem is likely to be greater for roads. The Nepal-Bangladesh freight traffic suffers from significant pilferage en route in India. India has also frequently complained about leakage of third country goods moving to land-locked Nepal from Kolkata Port. Thus, freight in transit will need to be protected from such abuse. Containerization is often put forward as a solution to this problem. However, containers are expensive and require special infrastructure and handling. Moreover, relatively high value freight is moved by containers while the bulk of the demand for transit is likely to be low value products like coke, rice, sugar and cement.
Railway capacity
The Bangladesh Railways has a total of 2835 route km consisting of metre gauge (1801 km), broad gauge (659 km) and dual gauge (375 km). At the end of fiscal 2008, BR had a total of 9509 wagons (6562 covered) and 1857 special type wagons. In addition, containers have also been introduced on the Dhaka-Chittagong route and special type flat wagons suitable for carrying containers have been procured (350 wagons). An inland container depot terminal has also been established in Dhaka with custom and port facilities for clearance of container traffic. This has been in operation since 1987, with a capacity of handling 3927 TEUs.
BR has been facing tough competition from other modes especially for the high-value goods which yields more revenue. Total freight carried in 2007-08 was 3.3 million tonnes (or 869.6 million ton-km). In 1969-70, total freight carried by BR was 4.9 million tonnes – showing that even in absolute terms, the volume of traffic has declined significantly. The trend over time in freight carried by BR is shown below.
There would thus seem to be a prima facie case that capacity utilization of BR is well below its potential. An assessment therefore needs to be made in terms of how much additional freight BR could carry and what minimal investments would need to be made if rail-based transit sercvices are opened up in the near future. It was noted earlier that the potential demand is large, and there is therefore a unique opportunity for BR to gear itself up to address this demand, in stages. It will therefore need to develop a clear strategy to open itself up to transit trade in the short and medium term.
Table 5: Trend in Freight Carried by BR, 1969-2008
Source: Bangladesh Railway information book, 2008 (p.54)
The main rail link to enter Bangladesh from Kolkata is at the Gede-Darshana interchange point – the most important such point currently handling 60 trains per month (30 loaded trains to Bangladesh and 30 empty ones returning to India, each month). There is no return traffic from Bangladesh causing capacity underutilization. The rail link connects Darshana with Dhaka (290 km), via Ishwardi Junction, Joydevpur and Tongi. Further eastwards the link connects to Shahbazpur via Akhaura and Kulaura (266 km), which is the last station of BR on the eastern side. The section between Darshana and Ishwardi is on broad gauge, and that between Ishwardi and Joydevpur is on dual gauge. Further eastwards, up to Dhaka, Akhaura, Kulaura and Shahbazpur, the rails are on metre gauge. From Shahbazpur, the rail link enters India up to Mahishason and Karimganj (in Assam), also on metre gauge. From Akhaura a small stretch of around 10 km of rail is all that needs to be done to connect Agartala in Tripura State. However, Indian NER is now in the process of converting its rails to broad gauge.
Unlike road connectivity which currently can be said to exist, even if the condition is highly variable, the same cannot be said about rail connectivity. If rail based transit services are to be put into action the railway system of the two countries will need to be synchronised, requiring significant investments. An indication of the synchronization problem involved is borne out by the existing rail-based trade between the two countries.
There is very limited cross border trade via rail between India and Bangladesh. Inside Bangladesh territory, Indian wagons are pulled by Bangladeshi engines for a short distance up to the transhipment point. Axle load restrictions over Jamuna Bridge prevents through movement up to Joydevpur (near Dhaka) despite the existence of dual gauge lines. Bangladesh railway wagons do not cross the border due to incompatible rolling stock. The entire rail freight between India and Bangladesh is one sided, from India, as there is no return traffic.
Railway based freight transit could be conducted through Kolkata-Darshana-Ishurdi-JMB-Akhaura-Karimganj route. A number of variations are possible including a route originating in Radhikapur/Parbatipur or Rohanpur-Rajshahi. Thus, some possible rail links that could be examined include:
Rohanpur (C'Nawabganj)-JMB-Tongi-Akhaura-Agartala
Benapole-Chuadanga-Hardinge Bridge-JMB-Tongi-Shahbazpur/ Akhaura
Darshana-Hardinge bridge-JMB-Tongi-Shahbazpur/Akhaura
Chilahati-Joypurhat-Natore-Ishwardi-JMB-Tongi-Akhaura
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