Options Ahead
Amid speculations on the future of the nation, PROBE takes a look at what lies ahead
Something is rotten in the state of Bangladesh. This is no non sequitur, but a fact that people are having to face up to with a burgeoning sense of dread. Even the most optimist of the lot can no longer brush aside the growing apprehensions that all is not well. The fragile economy, the deplorable state of law and order, the share market shenanigans, crises in the power and energy sector and the general lack of well-being do not bode well for the future. Added to that is the government's failure to drive a good bargain with India over various issues of national interest.
If the government has shown any tangible effort at all, it is for ways and means to ensure and prolong its stay at the helm. It has written off the system of holding elections under a neutral caretaker government and has switched back to elections under the political government (namely, the incumbent one). It has left no holds barred to restrict the opposition, BNP in particular, from drumming up momentum for a movement. It keeps a stern eye and ear on critical TV talk shows. Tolerance level is at a nadir.
Under these circumstances, it comes as no surprise that a big question mark hovers like Damocles sword over the nation's head: what lies ahead?
Political pundits are burning the night oil trying to figure that one out. There a few options laid out on the table and an analytical dissection of the on-going developments bring these options to light.
The first scenario is that the government will aim to complete its full term, despite the bumpy ride. In this time, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will go all out to fulfill her agenda. This agenda predominantly features the War Crimes Trial and ensuring the Zia family is out of the political scene. On the other hand, the opposition BNP has already shown to all intents and purposes that it means to oust the government and that it means business. The success of its recent road march programme is a point in hand. While BNP Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia insists that her party will not take part in any election under the Awami League government, Hasina is equally adamant not to have the polls under any caretaker rule. In that case, the government may simply go ahead with the elections, bulldozing its way with a 'rebel' faction of BNP joining in to lend credibility to the polls. Smaller parties are, of course, waiting in the wings along with representatives from social forums which seem to be mushrooming all around in profusion. So the elections might be held in the scheduled time, a new government formed, but how long that government will last is a matter of question.
In the meantime, analysts feel that international quarters may use the circumstances to revive their 'minus two' formula, playing one major party against the other and allowing a new force to emerge from the ensuing debris. Conspiracy theory? It may well hold more fact than fantasy!
The second option is the result of a vital overhauling of traditional politics. The political governments as we know them will be replaced with a 'corporate' government, a conglomeration of socially accepted forces and persons.
To fill the vacuum caused by political paucity and take the reins of the nation, already several smaller parties and members of the civil society have been organizing themselves to come forward in this time of national need. The ensuing "corporate" group will naturally appear as 'superheroes' or saviours to retrieve the nation from the abyss of the political crisis. This group is to comprise of personalities with social acceptance and credibility. For long Prof. Yunus had been seen in this role, though his aborted political ventures and subsequent trouble with Grameen Bank has diminished the probability of his entrance into the scene. His involvement might be limited to giving this ' government' an international acceptance. However, BRAC's top man Sir Fazle Hasan Abed at the moment has national and international recognition and is epitome of the country's social movement. Then there is a powerful media house who is likely to join hands with the likes of Yunus-Abed to conjure up this national government, or "corporate" government as it is called by certain quarters. This hypothetical government is also seen by some as a transitional one.
They will arrive on the scene when the existing political players reach a deadlock or are pitched into battle against each other. After all, confrontation is inevitable over contentious issues like that of the caretaker government, electronic voting machines, etc. BNP is unlikely to be able to drum up the strength to topple the government from power, and the government's failures are enough for rejection by the public. In such a case scenario, the fresh government will have quite an agenda on its plate. Leaders of less integrity within BNP and Awami League are likely to clamber aboard this new platform with a zeal to make a difference.
One thing obvious is that a new government will have to usher in real change. It will have to do away with the rotting political system that so long gripped the nation. And if it wants real change, it will have to lay its hands on the Constitution and go for an all out refurbishment, or more likely, a rewriting of the document. Technically, even this is a national government, it cannot really redraw the Constitution. So that would also mean the creation of a Constituent Assembly empowered to redraft or redrawn the Constitution. Thus, much on the lines of Nepal, while the government continues in its business running the country, a redrafting of the Constitution will continue. Governments can come and go, but this task will carry on. The recent visit of UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon was given reason for analysts to attach much importance to this option.
A third option is that the army might be compelled to step in. Given the way the socio-politico-economic situation is careening towards the precipice of disaster, that would be no surprised. The people even would perhaps welcome this wholeheartedly, albeit with more than a pinch of salt given the past experience of the 1/11 military-backed caretaker government. This time if the army steps in, it would be to form a Constituent Assembly and/or national government, and then walk out.
Analysts see yet another possibility on the horizon. As the overall of the country declines to an all-time low and The present government loses its grip, BNP may play its trump card in the form of Tarique Rahman, Rising like a Phoenix from his political ashes, he will receive a hero's welcome from his supporters if he returns to Dhaka. However, if for any physical or legal reason he cannot make a comeback, his wife Dr. Zobaida Rahman may make her political debut. She is educated, has a strong family background and has all qualifications required for position. If she wields her charisma with political astuteness, she may well be a turning point in the political developments of the country.
A worst case scenario that may be a consequence to the present predicament of the country, would be the crisis spinning out of control, leading to total disarray. This would see radicalization and the rise of the extreme right, something which the people of Bangladesh have so long dismissed as simply not possible in a nation with such a moderate mindset. This would exacerbate the situation further, calling again for strong measures.
Unless handled in a pragmatic and matured manner with an acute sense of focused direction, Bangladesh may slide into becoming a police state, or, worse still, no state at all.
Possible fall-outs of the permeating crisis
· Rise of the ultra-nationalists
· Elimination of traditional political leadership
· Introduction of "corporate" governance/leadership
· Massive economic crunch
· Continuity of social/economic unrest
US for election
Word has it that recently an interesting meeting took place at the residence of Saiful Islam, a go-getter of the BNP camp. Joining him were BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Alamgir, Shafiq Rehman and others of that ilk, along with certain persons of the US Embassy.
It is reported that the US representatives urged BNP to go ahead and participate in the next parliamentary polls, whether under a caretaker government or a political one. When the BNP persons pointed out that under a political government the election would be rigged without fail, the Americans replied that this will be easily exposed to the people. The bottom line is that they quite confidently said that BNP would win the election hands down. That is latest news from the political birdie making the rounds.
http://www.probenewsmagazine.com/index.php?index=2&contentId=7578
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