Musharraf in Civvies:
Taj Hashmi
Professor,
Summary:
Despite the impending withdrawal of the emergency, Musharraf is as illegitimate as anything; and he will remain so in the wake of the withdrawal of the virtual martial law. Musharraf's getting another five-year term in alliance with Bhutto, by denying more popular Sharif any role in the next government, is not going to stabilize
Apparently, everything seems to be going in the right direction in
Despite the impending withdrawal of the emergency, to most Pakistanis and others, Musharraf is as illegitimate as anything; and he will remain so in the wake of the withdrawal of the virtual martial law. We believe Musharraf's getting another five-year term legitimized by a compliant parliament is only a matter of formalities.
Although one may have welcomed his doffing the uniform, there is hardly any reason to be enthused about this gambit in view of his subsequent moves; disqualifying Nawaz Sharif's candidature through the compliant Election Commission being the latest regressive one in this regard. Sharif's popularity and defiance, his considering Musharraf's oath taking as the President "devoid of any legitimacy, constitutional or legal cover" could have precipitated this coup de grace. As of now, it appears that he is not entering the parliament to stamp the seal of legitimacy Musharraf badly needs to prolong his rule.
The polls, which most likely be rigged to the advantage of Musharraf, will have been his nemeses if Sharif's All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM) remains unwavering. For Sharif, the government's disqualifying his candidature seems to be a blessing in disguise, as his participation would possibly be his biggest political blunder. One is not sure which way other leaders of the APDM, his Muslim League (N), the Jamaat-i-Islami and Imran Khan's Tahrik-i-Insaf, will go. If they remain steadfast, Bhutto's participation in the polls (along with other minor parties) is not going to legitimize and prolong Musharraf's tenure.
Bhutto's reaction to Musharraf's taking off the uniform for the last time was unusual. On the one hand, welcoming Musharraf's doffing the uniform she said she was "not in a hurry to accept him as a civilian leader". And on the other, as her latest volte-face suggested, she decided to take part in the January elections "under protest". She thinks power sharing with Musharraf, possibly as the next Prime Minister, outweighs the not-so-visible benefits of boycotting the polls.
Being aware of his limited political support base, Musharraf would love to integrate Bhutto's People's Party into his alliance of the ruling Muslim League (Q), former pro-Taliban Maulana Fazlur Rahman's Jamiat-i-Ulama-i-Islam and a few regional parties. Bhutto's latest meeting with Musharraf suggests that they will be together against the Saudi-backed Nawaz Sharif. It may be mentioned here how due to Saudi pressure Musharraf had to release the former ISI chief Hamid Gul, arrested in the wake of the Emergency last month. Gul is widely known for his pro-Taliban sympathies, and is alleged to have tried selling nuclear arms to
Meanwhile, one does not rule out the possibility of Sharif's gaining defectors from the ruling Muslim League into the APDM. Some top brasses of the ruling party are already hobnobbing with Sahrif. Consequently it appears that Musharraf's alliance will be extra-cautious not to hold free and fair elections. One may assume that by mid-December Bhutto and Sharif will be heading two sharply polarized groups, both having Islamists and democrats as allies.
In view of the above, the well-known mullah-military nexus, which by now has become a by-word for ruling elite in
As we know, the vested interest groups among serving and retired top brasses of the military are not only running a state but also the much maligned "Military Inc." or the Fauji [military] Foundation (worth $20 billion), a state within a state. Consequently it is least likely that relinquishing its undue privileges, the military machine will cheerfully handover power to a civilian government.
Most importantly, contrary to what Musharraf has so far successfully sold to the world, his "enlightened moderation" as the best anti-dote to Taliban-al-Qaeda insurgency, one has evidences to prove his government's duplicitous role vis-à-vis the containment of the Islamist terror. Unfortunately, neither Sharif nor Bhutto has clean slates in this regard.
Notwithstanding Musharraf's immodest claims, his regime has remained ineffective against the Islamist insurgency. Paradoxically, while Carnegie Endowment President Jessica Mathews considers
Contrary to some analysts' reservations about the compatibility of democracy in
Despite the dreadful predictions about
*Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are my own and do not reflect the policy or position of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies or the US Department of Defense.
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