| Amidst air dropping of tons of emergency relief and showering of sympathies for cyclone victims, a deep concern is simmering in many minds about the Sidr's possible grim impact on economy and public life.
How an economically impoverished nation of 140 million people would recoup the disastrous loss of two floods and this deadly cyclone within a span of a few months in a same year?
After the cyclone the country is virtually groaning in the pain of loss of 16 lakh metric tons of paddy-10 lakh metric tons by two floods and 6 lakh metric tons by 'Sidr', inflation, price-hike, unemployment and colossal damage to plants, wild life, poultry and infrastructure.
A preliminary estimate released by PSO Lt Gen Masud Uddin Chowdhury, who is also the Chairman of army relief coordination committee, shows that the country suffered a loss of US$ 2.31 billion as result of the cyclone.
The interim government sought food assistance of five lakh metric tons from the international donors to meet the deficit and maintain the food security.
Presently, the government has a stock of 7 lakh metric tons, of which two lakh metric tons will be spent on Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF) and Food for Works (FFW) programme for next four months from December.
Food and Disaster Management Advisor Tapan Chowdhury requested the donors who want to give food aid to purchase it from outside the country so it does not affect the domestic market. Chowdhury's candid appeal reflects the harsh reality on the ground.
The donor countries and agencies so far pledged more than US$ 450 million as emergency relief. Saudi King Abdullah already pledged US$ 100 million in relief for the cyclone victims. Earlier, the Saudi King had ordered assistance of US$ 50 million due to floods. The had government requested the Saudi government to buy rice with the money from outside market.
The Indian government also pledged food grains worth US$ 22 million and removed restrictions on importing 50,000 metric tons of fine rice to help Bangladesh meet the possible food deficit.
"The country is passing through a very difficult time as it experienced two floods and one severe cyclone, which never happened in one year in recent time," ADB Country Director Hua Du observed.
Perceiving the adverse impact on the country's economy, she said the natural calamities here are likely to take their toll on the GDP growth bringing it down to below 6 percent in the current fiscal (2007-'08) instead of its earlier predicted 6.5 percent.
"This will happen because of two severe floods and the recent cyclone that caused extensive damages to the country's agriculture sector by affecting crops," she told a press conference 10 days after the cyclone.
An ADB update shows that due to floods the country has incurred a loss of US$ 1.4 billion in economic terms, which is 1.1 percent of the GDP. The production loss because of flooding is estimated at 1.3 million tons, it said.
On the other hand, the ADB said, the recent cyclone has damaged 38 percent of Aman crops in coastal areas. Du said the ADB and some other donor agencies are going to announce a soft loan of US$ 180 million for Bangladesh as assistance for the cyclone-hit areas.
"This is an emergency disaster rehabilitation loan and ADB's share is US$ 120 million while Japan, Sweden, Canada and the Netherlands will provide the rest," the ADB director said.
The ADB update presented a desolate picture of the country's economic situation as the key export-oriented garment industry, which had a robust growth over the past years, experienced a downtrend in recent months alongside a sharp fall in investment sector.
Besides, erosion in business confidence has affected the manufacturing sector while the construction sector has seen a decreased growth because of the ongoing anti-corruption drive and rise in the prices of materials.
The ADB sees the rising inflation (9.6 percent), staggering losses of Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation and other state-owned enterprises, huge subsidy in fertiliser, and also rising trend in the prices of goods on the international market as the biggest challenge for the economy.
A big question is the way Bangladesh's overseas friends are concerned about the situation, those who are at the helm of affairs do not look that much of concerned.
Raising eyebrows of many, Finance Adviser Dr Mirza Azizul Islam brushed away any absolute crop deficit in the country following the devastating floods and cyclone and said the government would make necessary imports and provide food at cut prices, if need be.
"If necessary, we'll buy foodgrains at higher prices. I don't think that people will be left unfed," he said at a seminar in the city on November 26. Dr Aziz wouldn't agree that the country is now experiencing an economic stagnation.
The Advisor stressed better production of Boro crops and import of foodstuffs to make up for the loss caused by natural calamities.
He however said, "It is not possible to increase the productivity to fulfil the losses in a season; that's why we are putting emphasis on research and development in the agriculture sector."
Responding to a question, the Adviser said the government would strengthen the social safety net, like Open Market Sales (OMS) and VGF, to help the affected people. "We will import foodgrain and provide it to the poor people through OMS and VGF, or sell it at a subsidized price."
About the import of foodgrains from different countries, he said there are some problems from import side: one is quantity problem and another price problem. "Foodgrain exporting countries impose ban on export or impose ban on lower-category foodgrain that might cause a problem for the import of foodgrains," he said.
Saying that agriculture sector is passing through a 'critical phase', the Adviser said, "We are losing land for urbanization and erosion. This sector (agriculture) became vulnerable due to the natural calamities like floods and cyclones, price increase of agricultural inputs like fertilizer and diesel, and structural changes in agriculture."
But speaking at the same forum, renowned economist Prof. Wahiduddin Mahmud said there would be a deficit in rice production. "But what will be the amount must be found out by the government centrally and import that amount of foodgrains," he said.
He also thought that due to damage of Aman crops there is no chance of decrease in the price of rice on the market. "Due to the higher price of rice on the international market, the price will remain same," he said.
Political observers say if the Finance Advisor is so confident about this theoretical perception why his colleagues in the Council of Advisors like Food Advisor Tapan Chowdhury virtually begged for food aid?
Bangladesh once again appeared on the central stage drawing international attention for being victims of natural disasters. US war ship with 2,300 marines, naval personnel, dozens of choppers, jets and hovercrafts joined the relief efforts. Pakistan naval ships are also sailing for the Chittagong coast with relief goods while Bangladesh's neighbours and overseas friends are rushing succor for the victims.
Reports from far-flung cyclone-hit areas suggest there are piles of relief goods but lack of coordination is hampering the smooth distribution of these relief materials among the survivors. A sense of national urgency is still absent. |
