Is Political Bloodbath Looming in Bangladesh
by Mahfuz R. Chowdhury
Judging from the controversial actions being carried out by the
government and the reactions of the opposition, most observers believe
another period of political turmoil is looming in Bangladesh. The
outcome of such turmoil would be anybody's guess at this point.
Anyone who follows events in Bangladesh knows all too well that the
country is now pretty much captive to two dynastic families for its
politics or governance. Since 1991, state governing power in the
country has been alternating between these two families. In a country
not known for equality between the sexes, both families are now headed
by women who have for all practical purposes remained each other's
sworn enemy.
One of the women, Sheikh Hasina Wajed, the current Prime Minister, is
the daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the supreme leader who led the
country to the liberation war against Pakistan in 1971. The other,
Begum Khaleda Zia, the present Opposition Leader, is the widow of Gen.
Ziaur Rahman, the renowned freedom fighter in that same war. Both
Mujib and Zia later ruled Bangladesh. Their periods of iron fisted
rule were surrounded by many controversies and ended in their murder
while in office. Yet, the power vacuums that followed their respective
assassinations prompted their die-hard followers to help establish the
present family dynastic rule by elevating the two women political
novices, the leaders' heirs apparent, to the leadership positions of
their personal parties – Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist
Party. The two ladies in turn seized the opportunities to consolidate
power and assume autocratic rule within their parties.
After the end of dictatorial rule in Bangladesh in 1990, the two
ladies alternated state power for an almost equal number of terms.
Both of their administrations were, however, marked by huge
irregularities. They tolerated the massive corruption and the
injustices inflicted by their party members and supporters. This has
resulted in the creation of a widening wealth divide in the country
with more people falling below the poverty line. Their human rights
violations were equally appalling. According to Amnesty International,
the special police force, Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), established in
2004 has been implicated in the killing of at least 700 people despite
repeated pledges by both ladies to end extrajudicial killings.
The grass root support or popularity of both parties seems equal, and
neither party was strong enough to grab state power all by itself. So
they both enlisted the support of a junior partner, namely the Jamaate
Islami Party, at one time or another. When Khaleda Zia was last in
power with such alliance, she maneuvered things to put down the
opposition and bolster her own re-election prospects. The opposition
led by Sheikh Hasina resorted to agitation, leading to political
turmoil in 2006. The army promptly took advantage of such turmoil by
seizing power in early 2007 under the guise of a care-taker government
system that the feuding parties had earlier established for conducting
national elections, and ruled for two years.
Given the ferocity of the turmoil preceding the military takeover, the
army backed care-taker government enjoyed rare popular support at the
time. Hopes were also raised when it swiftly initiated vital
democratic reforms in the organization and regulation of political
parties, election rules, power decentralization and judicial
independence. But sadly such valiant efforts all ended in utter
failure. The army backed unelected government gave in to tremendous
pressures from both inside and outside. After arranging an election,
it handed over power to Sheikh Hasina, who had won the election.
The opposition rejected the election result claiming it was
conveniently manipulated and influenced by neighboring India. This
claim has since been backed by an article appeared in The Economist on
July 30, 2011. The opposition's argument that Sheikh Hasina has made
secret deals with India is also gaining considerable traction after
the article detailed the benefits that India would extract from its
cozy relation with Bangladesh. In rebuffing the gain that Bangladesh
could expect in exchange for the transit facilities for India, the
opposition reminds people about the water sharing fiasco that India
has indeed created for Bangladesh.
Additionally, Sheikh Hasina is seen to be more interested in using her
current parliamentary mandate to find a way to extend her rule by
suppressing or eliminating the present or perceived opposition than to
properly address the many critical problems facing the nation. These
problems are, run-away inflation especially for staple foods, acute
gas and electricity shortages, crises with regard to infrastructure,
unemployment, rising crime rates, police brutality, campus riots,
rampant corruption, and an ongoing stock market scandal.
But to ensure her firm grip on power and to prevent any kind of
dissent in her own party, Sheikh Hasina surrounded herself only with
loyalists by eliminating the moderate and independent party stalwarts
from decision making. All vital decisions in the country, including
judicial judgments, must now meet with her approval.
In a clear effort to reduce the power of her nemesis, Khaleda Zia,
corruption charges were recently filed against her. Her two sons, who
live in exile, were also indicted earlier on similar grounds by the
Hasina administration. The charges against them may well be true and
the people have the right to know the truth, but they are not at all
sitting well with the BNP supporters. Besides, an amendment to the
constitution to do away with the earlier agreed upon system of
care-taker administrations to oversee elections has been enacted
unilaterally. This act was even taken contrary to the wishes of Hasina
appointed Supreme Court, which though ruled against the care-taker
government system, opined that it should be slowly phased out. In any
event, no one expects the opposition to accept such a unilateral
change to the constitution for fear of election manipulation.
Sheikh Hasina commissioned a controversial tribunal, which is to begin
shortly the trial of the alleged war-crimes during the war of
independence of some 40 years ago. The accused are being deprived of
any legal help from outside the country. Oddly, her father with his
enormous power didn't envision such a disruptive and unsettling trial.
Her apparent target is to wrestle the opposition forces of Jamaate
Islami. Although she is trying to justify her action on ground of
controlling fundamentalism, many countries including the U.S. have
expressed reservations about this trial. She remains unfazed.
She stripped Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus from his position in the
Grameen Bank, which he had founded to promote micro-credit among the
rural poor, by using trumped-up charges and his age. She did this
without even waiting for the investigation report that she had
ordered, which later cleared him of any wrong doing. His obvious crime
was that he was becoming too popular. Prof. Yunus's popularity was
casting a shadow over Sheikh Hasina's plan to make her father "the
greatest Bengali of the millennium", and at the same time making him a
potential rival in future elections.
These actions clearly epitomize Bangladeshi politics, where such
personal vendetta has time and again overtaken national interests! As
personal vengeance has now become more fierce and intense, the
situation is getting even more precarious day by day.
Currently, there are four major players in Bangladesh politics, and
each holds substantial power. They are: the two parties that the two
ladies lead and control, the Islamist group of which Jamaate Islami
Party is a part of, and finally the army. Given the intensity and
scope of the present conflict, the ensuing power struggle is thus
likely to turn ugly.
The actions of Hasina's administration are clearly on collision
course, and the response by the aggressive opposition, led by Khaleda
Zia, is equally stern. The Islamist group itself is a very formidable
force. It has demonstrated its strength in 2005 by successfully
exploding over 400 bombs in 300 locations and claiming the lives of
judges, lawyers and policemen with their suicide attackers. The group
has also been implicated in the notorious grenade attack in 2004 on
the rally of the then opposition leader Sheikh Hasina. Though she
survived, the attack took the lives of 22 people including the wife of
the country's current President. As to the army, it has so far seized
state power on three occasions, the latest one being in 2007.
Democracy was never given a chance to flourish in Bangladesh. Its
system of governance, including the army rule, was centered and built
on individual leadership cult. It has since given birth to the dual
family dynastic rules. The existing system may at best be termed as
democratic authoritarianism in which the country seems to be locked in
for now.
If the country's past violent history and the present realities of the
Middle East are any guide, the family dynastic rules in Bangladesh
will only bring more chaos and confusion where neither democracy nor
economy would get a chance to prosper. Yet, with such a well perceived
gloomy outlook, no one expects a change in the key players' stance on
any crucial issue. So the world must wait to see what the next
political turmoil brings to Bangladesh!
(The author currently teaches Economics at FarmingdaleState College,
New York, and formerly taught at Long IslandUniversity)
http://www.voiceofbangladesh.info/details_all.php?id=110&table_name=essays&writer_id=45
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[Disclaimer: ALOCHONA Management is not liable for information contained in this message. The author takes full responsibility.]
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