News Analysis
Sir Ninian Formula: Rejected then, reviewed now
To break the political stalemate, Awami League now seems to prefer an interim administration comprised of members from the ruling and opposition parties for holding the next parliamentary polls.
Back in 1994, the AL had rejected this very formula given by Sir Ninian Stephen.
Sir Ninian came to Dhaka in October that year as a special envoy from the then Commonwealth secretary general to break a political impasse between the then ruling BNP and the AL-led opposition over introduction of a caretaker government system.
According to his formula, an 11-member cabinet would be formed with the incumbent prime minister in chair. Five cabinet members would be from the ruling and five others from the opposition parties. And the interim cabinet would give all-out support to the Election Commission for holding free and fair parliamentary polls.
Many ruling party leaders were about to agree on the formula to overcome the crisis. But the opposition parties, including Awami League, Jatiya Party and Jamaat-e-Islami, outright rejected it and continued agitation for introduction of the caretaker government system.
The efforts of Sir Ninian along with some eminent citizens and diplomats failed to break the deadlock. And 147 opposition lawmakers resigned from parliament on December 28, 1994, to gear up for anti-government movement.
The result was the farcical polls on February 15, 1996, to constitute the sixth parliament that introduced the caretaker government system in haste by amending the constitution. The caretaker government assumed office at the end of March. The seventh parliamentary election was held on June 12, 1996.
The provision for the caretaker government system was abolished in June last year by the AL-led government, clearing the way for its staying in office during the next parliamentary polls. The cancellation, however, prompted the BNP-led opposition to take to streets to get the system restored.
But the ruling AL and government seem to have vowed not to give in to the opposition's demand. Rather, some recent newspaper reports on a proposition being discussed among the government policymakers over formation of an interim government. The incumbent PM will lead that interim government comprised of elected representatives of both ruling and opposition parties.
The proposition, although yet to be made public officially, is almost same as Sir Ninian's formula. And, the reaction of the BNP-led opposition is same as the then AL-led opposition's in 1994. The BNP-led opposition maintains the incumbent PM must resign to clear the way for forming a non-partisan government.
More interestingly, if one goes through the speeches of incumbent Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the then PM Khaleda in 1994 will find resemblance. For instance, Khaleda, then PM, on October 1, 1994 at a public rally on the capital's Manik Mia Avenue said the parliamentary polls would have to be held under a democratic government. She also urged the opposition to return to parliament, saying it was possible to resolve all problems in the House.
When AL-led opposition parties were agitating for reforms in the caretaker system and electoral laws between 2005 and 2006, the then PM Khaleda and her other colleagues also urged the opposition to return to parliament and place reform proposals.
Awami League did not return to parliament in 1994. But it responded to the government call and joined the parliament session on February 12, 2006 after remaining absent for 17 months in a row and placed a set of proposals for electoral reforms.
But the political crisis over electoral reforms was not resolved as the government did not show sincerity. Rather, it became more volatile at the end of 2006.
Finally, amid a grave political situation, the president declared the state of emergency on January 11, 2007.
Now, PM Hasina seems to have opted for the political weapons earlier used by Khaleda against her. Hasina and some of her cabinet and party colleagues have been urging BNP to attend parliament sessions and place their proposals, if they have any, over the caretaker government system.
In response, the BNP-led opposition MPs might join the current session of parliament to place its proposals for restoration of the caretaker government. In that case, the opposition could join the House before its March 12 "March towards Dhaka" programme. If they do so, the role of the ruling party will mostly determine the next course of politics.
Considering the political reality and polls records, the opposition's stance seems stronger than the government's. It has already been evident that free and fair parliamentary polls were possible under the caretaker government. The four general elections overseen by non-party caretaker administrations since 1991 were largely free and fair.
But there is no evidence that free and fair general elections are possible under a partisan government. In the past, the ruling party men's unbridled greed to win the polls anyhow destroyed people's confidence in the partisan government's assurance of not to influence the polls if it remains in power.
http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=223010
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