Pressure mounts in politics
With the ruling party pulling all strings to remain in power, and the opposition determined to thwart its ploys, tensions runs high in the political arena
by Badiul Alam
Will the standoff between the ruling Awami League and the opposition BNP be ultimately taken to the streets? Or is another 1/11 episode eminent, to end the prevailing political crisis? These questions have been circulating in the public mind.
After the tragic incident of 1975, Bangladesh's politics has been sharply divided into two camps — Awami League and the anti-Awami League represented by the BNP. Over the years the parties have crystallized as the personal properties of two families — the Bangabandhu and Zia families.
On their fundamental ideological positions, both Awami League and BNP stand on the same platform as both preach market economy and accept the private sector as the engine of growth. Both parties have accepted the Prime Minister form of government in the name of Cabinet form of government.
Awami League and BNP both believe and preach political heredity in principle. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had been selected as the kingpin of Awami League because she was the daughter of Bangabandhu. After Sheikh Hasina, it will either be Sheikh Rehana or Sajib Wazed Joy to take over. Sheikh Rehana is the younger sister of the Prime Minister and she enjoys VVIP position, second only to the Prime Minister, although she does not hold any public office. Sajib Wazed Joy is the Prime Minister's son.
Khaleda Zia had been chosen to take over the helm of BNP although she had no political background, because she was the widow of President Ziaur Rahman. She will be replaced by her elder son Tarique Rahman, who is now abroad on treatment. The security forces mercilessly tortured Tarique Rahman during the 1/11 caretaker regime and his backbone was broken.
Both parties follow the 'winner takes all' principle. When BNP was at the helm of state apparatus, almost all the opportunities, from business to promotions in the administration, were enjoyed by BNP-minded people. The current regime also vigorously peruses the same policy, which has opened the opportunity for a furniture maker, a medical service provider or a cement manufacturer to become power developer overnight. During BNP's last period, despite Summit Group having experience in the power sector, it was not awarded the contract to develop a power plant at Sirajganj because they were considered to be Awami Leaguers.
During the Awami League rule in the year 2000, Bangladesh was ranked as the topmost corrupt country of the world and it held this rank right up till the time of departure of the Awami League government in the year 2001. BNP successfully maintained the corrupt status so much so that "corruption" was a catchphrase uttered simultaneously with the word "Bangladesh".
The corruption issue has again come to the forefront as the World Bank (WB), lead financier of the mega Padma Bridge project, suspended disbursement of funds, alleging corrupt practice in selection of the consultant for the project. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), have followed suit. Fingers have been pointed at Communications Minister Syed Abul Hossain, popularly known as "Abul", and his business organization Sahco International.
The allegation of corruption has also gained ground with a comment of former US Ambassador in Bangladesh James F Moriarty, who termed the Communications Minister as "less than an honest man". The world-renowned website Wikileaks released Moriarty's comment by leaking a US Embassy cable sent to Washington from Dhaka.
Awami League and BNP could never stand each other because they both consider politics as the personal property. Awami League and BNP would not hesitate to compromise democracy and democratic institutions for the sake of party or personal gain.
This has been glaringly obvious in recent political developments. After winning a thumping victory in the last general election, Awami League or Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina tampered with all the politically sensitive issues including striking out the caretaker government for holding the national elections, politicizing the judiciary and demolishing the cantonment residence of Begum Zia. The Prime Minister's Relief Fund has been used to provide financial support to judges of the Supreme Court in guise of a different context. The administration has been politicized so nakedly that even meritorious or neutral-minded officers identify them as "Mujib Sena". These officers with the Bangla names are being considered as the natural followers of Awami League and are getting preference in promotion and postings. The important positions of the important ministries like the finance, local government etc. have been filled up with the Bangla named officers.
During the BNP regime, political and Islamic connections were considered in posting and promotions but it was nothing like what the Awami League government is doing in its second term public office after 1991. In BNP's time, cabinet ministers like late Saifur Rahman and late Abdul Mannan Bhuiyan did oppose promotions and postings on political considerations. Both of them succeeded to some extent, which provided an opportunity for the current PSC Chairman Dr Shahadat Hossain to become the Cabinet Secretary. Dr Shahadat was always considered an officer of the Awami League camp. In current cabinet there is none to protest. Such protest would not be appreciated by the Prime Minister. The voice of conscious is totally absent. Some officers of the BNP camp did get promotions and choice postings, but with the help of monetary power.
In the backdrop of all this, both the parties are flexing their muscles, preparing for a showdown with each other. The focus is the next general election to take place in the year 2014. Awami League has a vision of 2021 and is doing everything possible to get administrative support for winning the next general election. The AL leadership knows it well they have lost the ground because of their failures in the different sectors, especially in controlling the prices of essential. During the last general election the AL President Sheikh Hasina promised to keep the rice price at Tk 10 per kg. Her slogan was "Dosh takai chal khabo, nowkai vote debo" [Rice for ten taka, vote for boat]. Coarse rice is now selling between Tk 30 to Tk 35. Not only rice, the kitchen market prices are soaring too. During this regime the price of green chili shot up to Tk 400 per kg.
Awami League has also failed miserably to control law and order and to stop extrajudicial killings. Amending the Procurement Act, 2006, which allows any public works contract worth Tk 2 crore without following the competitive process, has institutionalized the corruption. The ruling party cadres, especially workers of the Chhatra League and Jubo League, have been involved in all sorts of crime, including murder, toll collection, mugging etc. They have successfully implemented the despicable policy of "winner takes all".
The AL leadership received a wake up call from the outcome of the different local body elections which were held after two years of the government's term. The opposition BNP, despite organizational problems, fared well in the local body elections. It was this that caused Awami League to do away with the provision of the caretaker government. They know well that immediately after the installation of the caretaker regime, a large number of AL workers would find themselves behind bars because of their involvement in criminal activities. They also know that the officers they posted in sensitive places of administration would have to relinquish their positions, which would shelve their dream of administrative support to win the election.
BNP, on other hand, knows it very well that they could never win the next general election if the present administrative set, especially the police, remains in place. So they have opted to take to the streets demanding that the next general election be held under the caretaker regime. The Prime Minister in reply made her firm commitment to hold the next general under the political government. To her, the caretaker government is a dead issue. The Prime Minister also forecasted that BNP would participate in the next general election under the political government. The Prime Minister, however, stressed the need to empower the Election Commission.
However, she did not spell out what was in her mind in this regard. The first acid test the government would face is the reconstitution of the Election Commission. The tenure of the incumbent EC would expire in February 2012. Indications are that the government is thinking of reconstituting the EC according to their own sweet will. It was said that the present Chairman of the Public Service Commission might be chosen as the next Chief Election Commissioner. Though Dr Shahadat was Cabinet Secretary during BNP's last regime, BNP would not accept him as the CEC because as Chairman of PSC he did everything what the PMO office desired.
The position is now clear. The government is determined to hold the general election without transferring power to the caretaker regime. On the other hand, BNP has vowed to resists the "blue print" election. Both the parties are drawing up different strategies to defeat each other.
AL's strategy:
AL is in no mood to reach any consensus on the contentious issues. They are planning to go all out against BNP. The first plan is to disqualify Khaleda Zia from participating in the next general election. As part of that move the Anti-Corruption Commission has filed charge sheets in the Zia Orphanage Trust case. Both the government pleaders and ACC pleaders are jointly moving to start hearing of the case. They firmly believe that the Leader of the Opposition has no scope to escape from this corruption charge. If the Leader of the Opposition is sentenced by the lower court, she would not be eligible for contesting in the next general election.
The second strategy is to divide BNP. A move is already in place in this regard. The BNP leaders accused in the different corruption cases are being targeted in this regard. They were told that all the charges against them would be cleared through judicial process, if they agree to denounce Begum Zia and participate in the next general election under the party government. These leaders have also been asked to come forward with suggestions for reconstitution of the EC and amendment of the EC Act for empowering the institution. There are some important leaders of the BNP who do not have good rapport with their Chairperson, but they are hesitant about the success of their mission. They recall the experience of late Abdul Mannan Bhuiyan.
Another proposal was also submitted to the disgruntled leaders of BNP. They have been told to join the Ershad-led Jatiya Party. To pave the way for this move, JP has already applied for relaxation of the provision of a three-year mandatory period for person to become candidate from a party. If any person does not remain three years in a political party, he or she would not be eligible to contest in the election from that particular party. In fact, the government wants to hold another election as in 1986 when the parliamentary polls were held without BNP. JP and AL were the major participants in that election.
BNP's option
The options for the BNP are very limited. It is either ensure the defeat of the "blue print" election move, or to accept the election under party government with a powerful EC. So far BNP has opted for the first option. But organizational problems of the party remain as a major roadblock in implementing the first option. However, the success of road march has encouraged the BNP leadership to pursue the first option. The BNP leadership is also very hopeful for political change over the next year.
The "Dhaka Gheroa" (Dhaka Siege) call might be announced in the second part of 2013, which, according to the BNP sources, would turn into a Cairo episode.
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