The bottom line is - Finance Minister is a politician; he presented his numbers in the Parliament; now, opposition will have ample opportunity to criticize his economic projections. That's the democratic way to deal with this issue. If numbers are wrong, that will be debated in the Parliament. I do not think economists will rest on his numbers for their conclusion. The real numbers will have to come from BBS reports. On top of that - there are reports from the international agencies, such as, IMF, World Bank, etc. I am sure Finance Minister is quite aware of what's to come after his budget speech, and he is also prepared to answer those criticisms.
I am not so concerned about the real numbers at all; I am just stunned that there were some progresses under the present government. Bangladesh economy is mostly locked down due to Hortals and political disturbances. How do you expect any progress under such condition? I am pretty happy that numbers are positive, not negative. I thought that he would say that - targeted growth projections could not be achieved in any sector due to sustained political disturbances and interferences in the economy; people would buy it, I am sure.
Jiten Roy
----- Forwarded Message -----
From: Abdullah Dewan <adewan@emich.edu>
To: Politiconomy <politiconomy@list.emich.edu>
Sent: Wednesday, June 5, 2013 11:12 AM
Subject: [Politiconomy] Muhit's GDP Growth Projections -- revisited
From: Abdullah Dewan <adewan@emich.edu>
To: Politiconomy <politiconomy@list.emich.edu>
Sent: Wednesday, June 5, 2013 11:12 AM
Subject: [Politiconomy] Muhit's GDP Growth Projections -- revisited
More Comments:
Have a good day. We all love hour homeland.
--
Some of the excerpts in the following commentary are taken from my December 13, 2005 The Daily Star Article
(Vol. 5 Num 560)
"The FM's drive by GDP growth forecasting model" The Daily Star, December 13, 2005)
Dr. Abdullah A. Dewan
______________
My last week's comments on Finance Minister Muhith's GDP growth projections between 6.3 and 6.8 percent well above ADB's 5.7 % and IMF's 5.8% received overwhelming positive comments. But one comment came out disparagingly negative with a personal attack.
The comment came from one of the Executive Directors of Bangladesh Bank, named Das Gupta Asim Kumar. His name calling labels did not bother me at all but his assertion that "you are one of those ………..people who cannot be happy with good news about Bangladesh".
Mr. Das You is blatantly wrong and uninformed about me and also about the Bangladesh economy. When I have learned about him that he rose to ranks in BB based on minority quota and that he is an "illiterate fool" I simply felt pity for him.
(Referring to BNP's last period in power in 2005)
On December 13, 2006 the Bangladesh Bank (BB) in its monetary policy review estimated current year's real GDP (RGDP) to be in the range of 6.3 to 6.8 percent.
When reporters asked the Finance Minister about the RGDP growth, Saifur Rahman (then Finance Minister) discounted the BB estimates, instead made his own prediction. He suggested that the growth in the current fiscal year (2005) would exceed 7 percent mainly due to acceleration in employment generation. His forecast is based on his watching "drive by construction sites".
Saifur contended that "When one goes outside Dhaka, he or she can realize that plenty of development work is going on. When I go to Sylhet by road I have to pass through three other districts and I see factories and brick kilns are springing up on both sides of the road and hundreds of people are working there. So, the RGDP growth will be more than that of BB forecast." What a naïve observation unseemly of a country's finance minister!
The FM scoffed the statistical procedure used by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) as backdated. He said, "If the data were updated, our growth rate would look much healthier." Is he suggesting that BBS statisticians should be driving around the countryside and count the drive by construction sites and accordingly manipulate the RGDP figure?
(Referring to Hasina's first term as Prime Minister(2001-- )
During her first term as Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina announced in a public meeting that the GDP growth was 5 percent. When the PM was reminded that the growth rate was 4.5 percent, she ordered the BB to come up with a figure of 5 percent. The officers and staff of the BB worked overtime to manipulate the data to arrive at 5.0 percent growth rate.
[Ever since that GDP figure fabrication by BB — I have developed serious doubts about Bangladesh economic data and never attempted to pursue any empirical economic papers despite requests from several quarters.]
Muhith could have quoted that his projections are based on Bangladesh Bank estimates and that the actual data would be estimated and published by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). The problem with Muhit's predictions is that if the BBS's estimated GDP figure comes out between 6.3 and 6.8% his distractors would suspect the data and accuse him of exerting undue influence on the BBS to make him look smart, which he is not. One good thing is that Muhith's pronouncements do not affect the financial market in Bangladesh (than God) or do not generate any upbeat economic activities – given that by now the people dismiss his pronouncements as "Rubbish" and "Bogus".
What about that BB Executive Director, Das Gupta Asim Kumar? I already identified him as an "ignorant fool". If I make any further comments on his intellect and wisdom, which he grossly lacks, people like him supporting "Indianization of Bangladesh" would think I am supporter of Islamization of Bangladesh" and an anti-secular element. And those supporting Islamization process would think I am a backer of the disgruntled BNP politicians.
--
Abdullah A Dewan
Professor and Economics Department Head
M.Sc(phys), M.S.(nuclr.eng),Ph.D(econ)
703-A Pray-Harrold,
Ypsilanti, MI 48187
adewan@emich.edu
Ph#(734)487-3395
Professor and Economics Department Head
M.Sc(phys), M.S.(nuclr.eng),Ph.D(econ)
703-A Pray-Harrold,
Ypsilanti, MI 48187
adewan@emich.edu
Ph#(734)487-3395
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