Bangladesh issue can't be handled by a lame-duck govt in New Delhi
The cause of this alarming development is not too difficult to find - the continuing and debilitating quarrel between the two Begums of Bangladesh - Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed and her predecessor, Khaleda Zia, the chief of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party ( BNP).
Rivalry
The occasion, too, has a sense of déjà vu. With national elections scheduled in January 2014, Begum Khaleda had demanded that they take place under the aegis of a caretaker government, and not the incumbent Awami League dispensation headed by her great rival. Not surprisingly, Sheikh Hasina refused, just as Khaleda Zia had done in 2006 when she was prime minister. It had taken two years of agitation and strife to gain her commitment to hold the polls under the aegis of a caretaker government and the Awami League alliance had won by a landslide - 263 seats out of 300.
We are now probably headed to the same place with the numbers reversed in favour of the BNP. The international community has uniformly denounced the January 5 elections which saw a voter turnout of about 30 per cent against the 83 per cent who voted in 2008.
As many as 153 out of the 300 seats were won uncontested by the Awami League alliance which secured a three- fourths majority. In the wake of domestic protests and international condemnation, Sheikh Hasina has more or less conceded that she will have to undo the elections.
The question is of timing.
The longer the violence and anarchy plays out, the worse it will be for Bangladesh.
A re- election, which will almost certainly see the victory of the BNP, is bad news for India. But New Delhi can only blame itself for its predicament.
It did little to show its appreciation for the friendly government in Dhaka - it was neither able to push the Teesta watersharing accord, nor the border agreement. Given the binary nature of Bangladeshi politics, it was bad strategy for New Delhi to be seen as Sheikh Hasina's benefactor. This may have been a reality in the past, but in the last five years, at least, New Delhi needed to have moved to a stance that would protect Indian interests, regardless of who headed the government.
Rift
The events in Bangladesh have also brought out an uncharacteristic rift between New Delhi and Washington DC. In the past year, the Americans have been warning against the holding of elections in a climate of violence, while India has made it clear that all its eggs are in Sheikh Hasina's basket.
Had the two countries put forward a united stand on the elections, perhaps things would not have come to this pass.
On Monday, the United States issued a statement that categorically called on the Awami League government to fix the situation. In Washington DC, Marie Harf, the official spokesperson, denounced the violence and said, " We believe Bangladesh still has an opportunity to demonstrate its commitment to democracy by organising free and fair elections that are credible in the eyes of the Bangladeshi people." The American statement was in sharp contrast to the Indian official spokesperson's comment on the election, which was also delivered on Monday. In his daily briefing, the official spokesman said that the elections in Bangladesh were a " constitutional requirement" and that it was for the people of the country to " decide their own future and choose their representatives in a manner that responds to their aspirations." Ignoring the issue of the legitimacy of the elections, the spokesperson said that " violence cannot and should not determine the way forward." This was not a blanket endorsement of Sheikh, but it was close enough, given the universal criticism she has otherwise faced.
India's predicament is manifest.
Sheikh Hasina is one of the few friends we have in the South Asian region. In 2013, we have had trouble- prone relations with Sri Lanka, Nepal and Maldives; and ties with our adversaries Pakistan and China remain unchanged. But in the last five years, with Sheikh Hasina as prime minister, relations between India and Bangladesh were warm and friendly. She cracked down on the United Liberation Front of Asom ( ULFA) sheltering in Bangladesh, as well as on domestic Islamists who were used by the ISI for anti- Indian activity. Moreover, stable Bangladesh enjoyed a handsome six per cent rate of growth.
Equations
Sheikh Hasina's added virtue was that she took on the Jamaat- e- Islami and had it on the run. Equally important, the Awami League's control of the government provided New Delhi some comfort with regard to the advancing Chinese influence in the region, even though India was not able to reward her sufficiently. On the other hand, Khaleda Zia and her BNP are allied to the Jamaat which is virulently anti- Indian. Begum Khaleda's own attitude towards India cannot but be deeply skewed by the perceived closeness between India and Sheikh Hasina.
As far as India is concerned, the issue of Bangladesh cannot be handled by a lame- duck government in New Delhi. But beyond personalities and politics, there is one basic question we need to ask ourselves. Why even 66 years after independence, New Delhi's influence in its region is shrinking instead of expanding?
From: QR <qrahman@netscape.net>
To: mukto-mona <mukto-mona@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Fri, Jan 10, 2014 6:18 pm
Subject: Re: [mukto-mona] Does it matter if Hindus suffer?
Personally I feel, it is an old mind set. India itself betrayed Bangladesh since 72.
We are the "Natural ally" of India who have been treated like an enemy country since 72. Therefore, we did not forget India's help during 71 and it will remain part of our history as long we have a country call Bangladesh. At the same time, no country can afford to live in history forever.
Reality is harsh. India openly got involved in our domestic politics. India did same with funding terror groups in Sri Lanka. Funding political parties in Nepal and other neighboring countries.
Such help may be a "Gain" for the receiving party in the short run but history shows us it backfires all the time.
We have to have a working (And trusting relationship with India) in many areas like food security, security, environment, disease control, river management, trade (We buy a lot of Indian products) etc. So when India realizes that, the zero-sum policies does not work, we can get into win-win partnership.
Many Bangladeshis have high regards for Indian policy makers (Regardless of religious or political background). I do not!!
I think these "Our of date" and out of touch policy makers are still in cold war era and cannot bring them into 21st century.
I honestly feel, India and Bangladesh will gain a lot if we work as trusting partners.
A solid, stable Bangladesh is obviously a win for India. I do not know WHY Mamata and congress cannot see that? Once we become strong partners India can slush it's military budget (Which is one of the highest in the world) and invest those resources into development. We can HELP India with our experience in NGO, Micro-finance and many other areas where we have done well. India can help us in building infrastructures and linking us with regional power grid (A great concept) etc.
We can work as partners to improve our situations when it comes to rights of minorities as well. Our cultures are similar and India can do so much more than being the biggest bully in the region!!
Unfortunately India remains the biggest threat to it's neighbors and it is a monumental error in India's regional policies. India already lost Pakistan for a very long time. I like to think India will learn from it's past stupidity and become a solid partner of a prosperous Bangladesh. We''ll win together.
My two cents...
Salaam!
From: Jiten Roy <jnrsr53@yahoo.com>
To: mukto-mona <mukto-mona@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Thu, Jan 9, 2014 8:49 pm
Subject: Re: [mukto-mona] Does it matter if Hindus suffer?
You were Muktijodhya, so you must be aware of the sacrifice India made to liberate this land from the grip of Pakistan. Do you think they will sit back and relax while Bangladesh again becomes Banglastan?
While we fully condemn any atrocities by one people to other in the name of religion, secularism, supremacy or else,
sadly, some people of Bangladesh in illusion that India will stand by there (personal side???) side against the population of Bangladesh at some point of time if situation "goes wrong". This is a wrong notion and twisted idea. World knows the strength of Bangladesh. So as India. Bangladesh is not Afganistan, and it will never be. 71 proved it. Pakistanis tasted it. forceful cccupation does not work in Bangladesh.
In the liberation war I had a chance to work shoulder to shoulder with Indian army in Burimari defence. We had many discussion while sitting in the bankers. In conversation one habildar once told me, "India ub tomhara jamin por age barte hai, ye thore piche hotega. Agar koi char khuti por ek jhupri khara korde usko hotana mushkil hai"(India now marching on your land. It woun't retreat. If some one raise a hut on your land, they will hardly retreat.). Our answer was, as we are fighting Pakistanis now against their "Julum", we will turn our gun to fight you back as well. Ostad commented, " Tum Khatarnak ho" with praise ofcourse.
Some people of Bangladesh feel Pakistan is their right country, some other group of people thinks India is their right country. But I met Bangali men in Karachi who were treated as second class people of Pakistan. I met my young teacher Ranjit in the street of Dharmatala, Calcutta. Who once secretly left Bangladesh along with his old mother to live in India. He held me on his chest tight and said, brother, I was wrong to live my own motherland. Here in India we are not accepted, we are "Bangaal".
There are plenty of such stories I can tell you.
I now live in Australia as migrant. Who knows best then people like me that "Janmadopi gorioshi Janani Jonmobhumi".
Banglesh is "Jole pure sarkhar tobu matha noyabar noi". Even thinking of threatening Bangladesh by any nation is foolish. From Afganistan experience USA learnt it better now. India had foresight and knew it well, that's why demolishing any such doubt in 1971 the army has left Bangladesh as soon as they have been ordered by Bangladesh authority. From East Pakistan, West Pakistan has never learnt it, but they had to surrender and leave.
As a born Bangladeshi keeping anything such "threat idea" against own country is a sin, a crime. Sometimes it brings hatred of other to own-self unknowingly.
Dr. Mushrafi, Muktijodhdha
Australia
To: mukto-mona@yahoogroups.com
From: jnrsr53@yahoo.com
Date: Thu, 9 Jan 2014 15:59:50 -0800
Subject: Re: [mukto-mona] Does it matter if Hindus suffer?
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Saturday, January 11, 2014
[mukto-mona] Bangladesh issue can't be handled by a lame-duck govt in New Delhi
As I said earlier, the situation in Bangladesh is being monitored by Indian media as well. Here is an article from India Today....
Manoj Joshi | Mail Today | New Delhi, January 8, 2014 | UPDATED 17:38 IST
-----Original Message-----
I asked about your opinion also. Tell me - how India will react if Bangladesh becomes Banglastan, meaning another Taliban country. Do you really think - Indian will welcome it?
>>>>>>>>>>>> We had rajakars during 71 who put interest of foreign country over their own. We still have some rajakars among our population who are hoping for "Indian administration" in future Bangladesh.
-----Original Message-----
Dr. Mushrafi,
I am talking about Banglastan, not Bangladesh. I think you reacted too swiftly. Think about it again.
I asked about your opinion also. Tell me - how India will react if Bangladesh becomes Banglastan, meaning another Taliban country. Do you really think - Indian will welcome it?
How could you think that - I dream of such a day when Bangladesh gets rid of religious minorities? Please read my post again with your open mind, and think about it before jumping to conclusion.
Jiten Roy
On Thursday, January 9, 2014 8:45 PM, Mohammad Mushrafi <mushrafi@hotmail.com> wrote:
"I see Indian army marching in Banglastan" is it a subtle threat or dream?
Professor Hossain's article depicts harsh reality of religious minorities, especially Hindus, in Bangladesh. I agree with most of his analysis.
According to his analysis, Hindu oppression will continue until nothing is left to be taken from them. I would like to ponder on Bangladesh after that. What will happen to Awami League, BNP, Jamat, etc.?
I see the death of secularism, and death of Awami League; I see Islamic Banglastan. After that - I see Indian (or US) Army marching on the soil of Banglastan. I see smoke in the air; I hear bombs going off everywhere; etc., etc.
What do you see?
Jiten Roy
On Thursday, January 9, 2014 6:06 PM, ANISUR RAHMAN <anisur.rahman1@btinternet.com> wrote:
Please read the article and feel ashamed. Read Hindus as all minorities.
- AR
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