Mr. Guha: I have the slightest clue about what kinds of news articles
you read. It seems as if you are acting like the proverbial ostrich
who buries head in the sand so that it won't see the real world. If
you are in denial about the possible Obama victory, then I can't help
it. I hope you do not become the butt of the joke from tomorrow when
the real poll results will be out. You surely have ruffled feathers
and have taunted many a forum member.
Tonight at CNN's Anderson Cooper 360 show there were at least 6
analysts and prominent among them were Mr. Ed Rollins who is a diehard
McCain supporter and David Gergen. Each and every analyst present in
the show including Ed Rollins agreed that Obama is going to win the
election tomorrow because the wind is favorable for him and McCain is
up against a strong headwind. These analysts were debating over how
many electoral votes Obama will get. The low value was placed at 270
and the high value was 369. I think the real electoral vote is going
to be somewhere in between the two numbers.
Once the results are known, you can bet your sweet life that you will
receive some interesting reply from M-M members for your naiveté and
obstinacy.
Just now I read the following analysis given by an AFB reporter.
Please read this analysis to learn a thing or two about the dynamics of
this interesting presidential election.
Jaffor Ullah
New Orleans
---------------
Against Obama juggernaut, McCain has slim path to victory
by Stephen Collinson Stephen Collinson – Mon Nov 3, 6:07 pm ET
WASHINGTON (AFP) – For John McCain to confound the pundits and upset
favorite Barack Obama in Tuesday's election, he must navigate a
perilous electoral map on which a single slip could hand his rival the
White House.
McCain is battling to hold onto many of the key states which pushed
Republican President George W. Bush to reelection in 2004 -- and in
some scenarios the loss of just one major battleground could mean a
president Obama.
By contrast, the Democratic nominee clearly has the easier route --
hold onto the states won by his 2004 counterpart John Kerry and add a
big state or several smaller ones to get him to the winning post of the
270 votes needed in the 538 member Electoral College which will
ultimately name the new president.
Facing almost universally bad news in opinion polls, McCain's campaign
hopes for an upset that would rank as one of the most dramatic eleventh-
hour turnarounds in American political history.
Such an outcome would cast deep doubts over the methodology of
pollsters and expose much of the US journalistic establishment to
ridicule.
Obama led the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal survey by eight points,
the Rasmussen daily tracking poll by six points and the final Gallup
daily tracking survey by 11 points.
He led poll averages by independent website RealClearPolitics in all
the battlegrounds save North Carolina, now a tie and held narrow leads
in Indiana and Missouri -- which are normally Republican territory.
Under the US system, the president is chosen on the base of electoral
votes allocated to each state. Large states get the most votes in the
Electoral College -- California for instance has 55 while those with
small populations get as few as a handful.
In most cases, the winner of the popular vote in each state gets all
the electoral votes.
An electoral map put together on the basis of poll averages by
RealClearPolitics on Monday had Obama leading by 278 electoral votes to
132, with 128 still unallocated in toss-up states.
Obama's campaign set out to give their candidate multiple routes to the
White House on the US political map.
"Our number one strategic goal was to have a big playing field," said
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe on Fox News Sunday.
"We did not want to wake up on the morning of November 4th waiting for
one state. We wanted a lot of different ways to win this election."
Obama already leads the polls in Kerry states, so he needs just one big
state, or a combination of smaller states to get him over the top.
Simply winning the Kerry states and Ohio's 20 electoral votes would get
the job done, and give Obama 272 electoral votes.
The Kerry states plus Florida (27 electoral votes) which Democrats
narrowly lost in 2000 and 2004 would also do the trick.
The Democratic nominee could also chose a more westerly strategy,
picking up the Bush state of Iowa (seven electoral votes) where he is
heavily favored and Colorado (nine electoral votes) plus one other of
New Mexico (five electoral votes) and Nevada (five electoral votes).
Obama is also leading the polls in normally Republican Virginia, and is
heavily pressing McCain in North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri, so he
has many possible paths to victory.
McCain however is in a much more difficult position.
Given that it is unlikely the Republican will be able to defend all the
2004 Bush states in a tough Republican year, he needs to flip at least
one big Democratic state -- likely his only realistic option is
Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes).
The Republican nominee however faces a tough fight to hang on to
Virginia, Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Colorado and
New Mexico -- all of which went to Bush in 2004.
The loss of one of those big states to Obama -- Florida or Ohio for
instance, could spell doom for McCain.
The loss of Virginia, and one other smaller state from the Bush map,
like Colorado for instance, could also mean an Obama presidency.
McCain hopes Obama's final totals do not reflect his strength in
national and swing state polling, and his campaign argues the race has
trended clearly towards him in battleground states in recent days.
Some analysts also think Obama's race may mean he underpolls opinion
surveys as some people may not want to tell pollsters they are not
willing to vote for an African-American.
Theoretically, Obama could still rack up huge totals in national polls
by maximizing support in Democratic states like California and New
York, and still face a tough fight against McCain for electoral votes
in the battlegrounds.
But it seems statistically highly unlikely he could win the popular
vote by millions but still lose the Electoral College.
--- In mukto-mona@yahoogroups.com, "Sitangshu Guha" wrote:
>
> WRT: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/mukto-mona/message/50491
>
> Dr. Jafor:
> Laugh as much as you can, who knows after tomorrow you may not laugh!
But if
> you have headach, please take 1000mg Tylenol, because at this age, you
> should not take too much stress!
> Just a few minutes before, I read a mail against SKMirja, which
shocked me,
> but within seconds, I control myself and thought, that's why we had a
9/11.
> Thanks.
> Sitangshu Guha
>
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