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Sunday, September 4, 2011

[ALOCHONA] Bangladesh has given a lot -- it is now India's turn



The Onus is on India to Deliver

Bangladesh has given a lot -- it is now India's turn, asserts BRIG GEN SHAHEDUL ANAM KHAN


For the first time in many years, Bangladesh is going to host an Indian prime minister. In fact it will be the first visit by an Indian head of government in over 12 years since Mr. Vajpayee travelled to Dhaka in June 1999 on the occasion of the inaugural bus service from Kolkata to Dhaka. This is a return visit, on a bilateral level, and one that is eagerly awaited… by the optimists for what it might achieve and by the pessimists for what it fails to deliver for Bangladesh.

Mr. Singh cannot be coming at a more interesting time. In the backdrop of his faux pas comment about the likely political denouement in Bangladesh, and some very misplaced observations regarding the extent of the hold of the religious parties on the Bangladesh electorate, and of the comments in the Economist that would want us to believe that India played not a very small role in the last general election that helped the Awami League (AL) achieve a huge majority, people in Bangladesh are waiting to see how the two countries chalk out plans to resolve the outstanding bilateral issues. And there is a concurrence of opinion across the board in both the countries that the onus is on India to deliver.

There has indeed been a quantum transformation in the state of Bangladesh-India relationship since the assumption of office by the AL-led grand alliance in 2009. It was quite a change from what was witnessed during the previous regime when the bilateral vibes were rather muted if not totally absent. Unfortunately, during that time, our relationship with our largest neighbour was largely weighed down by a mindset dictated by preconceived notions. And when heart dictates the head, there are all the chances of going wrong.

It is not easy for the AL to conduct business with India given the perception of its regional orientation as a political party. It was very important for the Awami League to have started off its second tenure in office by taking the opposition on board insofar as the diplomatic front is concerned, particularly in formulating its India policy and to dispel a perception held by its opponents of it being a "pro-India" party.

This has not been the case since there has not been enough public discourse on the issues concerned in the public fora, and with the BNP and its allies boycotting the parliament, there has been no discussion in the house either, although the AL should on its own have tabled all the issues related to Bangladesh-India, matters on the floor of the parliament.

The Indian PM's visit was preceded by high level trips to Bangladesh, two of which, one can presume, were to iron out differences on the outstanding sensitive issues. And one hopes those would be resolved through definitive courses of action. India cannot be oblivious to the fact that the ball is in its court, and that, "India's assurance of it being a reliable and genuine partner for mutual co operation and benefit be unambiguously conveyed by addressing many of Bangladesh's genuine concerns. India's commitment towards Bangladesh needs clear illustrations," as one Indian scholar puts it.

The 12 January 2010 Bangladesh-India Joint Statement, signed during Sheikh Hasina's Delhi visit, can be summed up as a communiqué of three agreements and two MOUs. What we expect of the two Prime Ministers is take a stock of the progress in the implementation of the operative articles of the Statement, and in doing so provide specific directives to implement its provisions.


By the time this article appears in print the two countries will, hopefully, have ironed out the details on the major outstanding issues particularly the sharing of the Teesta river waters, a matter the two countries have been seized with since after Sheikh Hasina's Delhi visit. In the list of important issues this happens to be for Bangladesh the most vital matter.

One would like to share the optimism of the two foreign ministers, expressed to the media during the Indian foreign minister's visit to Dhaka in early July, about signing of an interim agreement on water sharing of the Teesta and Feni, and a framework deal on land border during Indian Prime Minister's visit in September.

Reportedly, deals on transit, import of power from India, joint venture power generation, cooperation in security, education, culture, and trade liberalisation, etc., are on the cards.

One also understands from comments of the two advisors to the Bangladesh PM's, made after their return from the preparatory talks in Delhi in August, that the Teesta water sharing would be much more equitable than the Ganges water deal, and as for the land boundary issue, we have been assured of a better deal than the 1974 land boundary agreement. That is indeed encouraging but we have to wait till the agreements are inked to find out. However, any water sharing agreement without a guarantee clause would be meaningless for Bangladesh.

A very interesting feature of the current public discourse on Bangladesh-India relations, in India and Bangladesh, is the general agreement, in various circles in India, including the academia, journalists and civil society at large, that India has not reciprocated Bangladesh's moves in fulfilling its part of the Hasina-Manmohan Joint Statement. And these quarters have been equally vocal about the need for the Indian government to act fast on its commitments.

The need for fast action is also a matter that the Indian political and bureaucratic establishments are also seized with at the moment. There is indeed a degree of wariness in India that unless all that needs to be done to get all that needs to be got from Bangladesh, is done within the time left of the current government in Bangladesh, there are chances that those might not be possible to get should the AL not return to power in the next general election.

The BNP has made no secret of what it will do with some of the provisions of the January 2010 joint statement, if and when it comes to power. And its position on the transit issue has been rigid since the very time the idea was "re-floated" by India. And India understands only too well that Sheikh Hasina has put her political future in line, having, what even some Indians feel, given a bagful and got not even a pittance in return. There have been only talks so far on the Indian side, and if there are apprehensions in Bangladesh regarding India living up to its part of the bargain, history has to do a lot in shaping that psyche. For India there is always the legal process to blame for its failure to meet bilateral obligations, as had been done so long in the case of the Teen Bigha Corridor. For Sheikh Hasina nothing short of tangible outcome will allay the misapprehensions of her critics.

The one single issue with which public in Bangladesh is seized with currently is transit. Opinion is divided whether Bangladesh should accord the facility to India since we have no idea about the likely economic benefits from this. So far, we have no study to show the exact return from this venture.

It is interesting to note that the word connectivity is being used as a euphemism for transit, whereas in actual sense it is providing a corridor, something that was agreed by both the countries in 1972 while drawing up a trade agreement which addressed the issue of surface connectivity. The word transit appears to be more inclusive since it holds the prospect for regional and even wider surface linkages.

The issue of surface connectivity between the two countries had been an agreed matter since 1972. The Indo-Bangladesh Trade Agreement on March 28, 1972, (Article V of the Agreement)
provided for "mutually beneficial arrangements for the use of their waterways, railways and roadways for commerce between the two countries and for passage of goods between two places in one country through the territory of the other." While the 1972 agreement was for one year, a new trade agreement, which was signed on October 4 1980, had similar proviso for surface connectivity. Allowing Bangladesh transit to Nepal is not a new concession either, because while making his statement at the 1972 signing ceremony the Indian foreign trade minister's had said, "We, on our part, would be only too happy to provide the necessary transit facilities to Nepal and our friends in Bangladesh." And the agreement has been renewed from time to time by all the Bangladesh governments since.

The payments for use of Bangladesh transit facility has not been officially released yet neither are we privy to the number of points of ingress and egress to the Indian North East. It is understood that the charges have been worked out and awaiting India's input. And one would hope that the calculation has not been kept only to the economics of the issue. There is good deal of opportunity cost, both in terms of what the country will have to bear physically as also in terms of the loss in trade with the Indian NE as a consequence. Will we be remiss to ask India to share a part of the cost saved in reduced distance from its western part to its northeast? What is of actual concern though is whether the present condition of our infrastructure is good enough to take the expected transit loads? It may be a long time before transit can become fully operational.

The prickly issues related to the border need political goodwill on both sides to resolve. And there cannot be any more sensitive matter than the APL, which will involve ours parting with some and getting some amount of land from India and vice versa. The boundary demarcation has lingered on for much too long for the good of the two countries, and while there has been a degree of progress in the matter, like signing of border strip maps, one is not quite certain as to the progress made on the issues of adversely possessed land and the enclaves.

Tipai Dam is another issue, since mixed reports create apprehensions in the minds of the people in Bangladesh. Although verbal assurance has been given by none other than the Indian Prime Minister, one would be very interested in having a formal guarantee in this regard.

One should not lose sight of the fact that countries negotiate to uphold their national interest. By the same token, coexistence as good neighbours requires a good deal of give and take. Bangladesh has indeed given a lot, most of all in allaying India's security concerns it has taken brave steps. But what must prevail in the minds of our negotiators is the need to uphold our national interest in whatever agreements we enter with our neighbours.

And on a note of both optimism and caution, we welcome Mr. Manmohan Singh in our midst.

Brig Gen Shahedul Anam Khan ndc, psc (Retd) is Editor, Defence & Strategic Affairs, The Daily Star.

http://www.thedailystar.net/forum/2011/September/onus.htm



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[mukto-mona] The Shadow God Father





  
Tareq Rahman : The Shadow God Father of Islami Militant in Bangladesh
 
  
                  http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-667387


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Mukto Mona plans for a Grand Darwin Day Celebration: 
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"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it".
               -Beatrice Hall [pseudonym: S.G. Tallentyre], 190




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[ALOCHONA] Wikileaks: Sheikh Hasina's Inner Circle: Loyal To The Core



Wikileaks: Sheikh Hasina's Inner Circle: Loyal To The Core

Date 26Feb, 2009-- -Dhaka US Embassy Cable


Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina relies on a small circle of trusted relatives, family friends, and time-tested devoted advisers while sidelining individuals she perceives as disloyal. Hasina's sister and son who reside abroad, are among her closest confidantes. Hasina also relies on longtime faithful party members, including Agriculture Minister Matia Chowdhury and President Zillur Rahman to offer counsel and support. .

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY

¶1. (C) Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina relies on a small circle
of trusted relatives, family friends, and time-tested devoted
advisers while sidelining individuals she perceives as
disloyal. Hasina's sister and son who reside abroad, are
among her closest confidantes. Hasina also relies on longtime
faithful party members, including Agriculture Minister Matia
Chowdhury and President Zillur Rahman to offer counsel and
support. Hasina's election promises to usher in political
change, as well as her desire to groom a new generation of
party leaders, probably prompted her nomination of Foreign
Minister Dipu Moni and State Minister for Home Affairs Sohel
Taj, both up-and-comers. Ultimately, however, Hasina trusts
close family relations to carry out her most sensitive
agendas.

-------------------
FAMILY TIES ARE KEY

¶2. (C) Hasina trusts and depends on her younger sister Sheikh
Rehana, who lives in London, and her son, Sajeeb "Joy" Wazed,
who lives in Washington, DC, as trusted confidantes. Hasina
probably relies more on Rehana for advice relating to
Bangladesh,s political climate because her son,s time in
the US has made him "too American to understand Bangladesh,"
according to a senior Awami League official. Hasina has
sought and heeded Rehana,s counsel on political nominees in
the past. Both Rehana and Joy work to advance Hasina,s
political goals. During Hasina,s incarceration under the
Caretaker Government, they were the only intermediaries she
trusted to represent her views to the Caretaker Government.
Rehana has participated in high-level party meetings and
traveled to Bangladesh to help Hasina campaign. Joy, who has
not given up on a political career of his own, is working in
the private sector to advance one of the Awami League,s
campaign initiatives, "digital Bangladesh."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

¶3. (C) Hasina depends on Retired Major General Tariq Ahmed
Siddique
for his military expertise and trusts him based on
his loyalty and his relationship with her family. Siddique,
whose brother is married to Rehana, has a long history as
part of Hasina,s family, including acting at times as a
surrogate father for Sajeeb, which is partially what inspires
Hasina,s trust. Siddique is a cabinet-level Adviser who
influences military and security issues. Siddique served as
Hasina,s former security chief and she recently charged him
with researching establishing a National Security Council.

--------------
LOYAL ADVISERS

¶4. (C) Hasina considers Syed Ashraful "Ashraf" Islam a loyal
Awami League member. She has entrusted him with the Local
Government Ministry portfolio, partially to reward him for
holding the fractured Awami League together as acting General
Secretary while she was imprisoned during the Caretaker
Government. Ashraf also was a key interlocutor with the
military Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI),
which played an active role in negotiating Bangladesh's
return to democracy during the Caretaker Government. Ashraf's
father was one of four leaders killed in the "jail killings"
at Dhaka Central Jail in November 1975. He spent many years
in the UK, where he also developed a close relationship with
Sheikh Rehana. Ashraf was one of the few top Awami League
leaders to be chosen for Hasina's cabinet and frequently
attends high-level meetings with her. Ashraf is a
long-serving Awami League member who served as party
spokesman and was involved in student politics. The Local
Government Ministry is a key portfolio responsible for more
than 25 percent of the national budget.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

¶5. (C) Hasina selected Matia Chowdhury to be Agriculture
Minister because of her reputation for being loyal and
uncorrupt as well as for her strong track record of
government service. She had experience in Bangladesh,s
agricultural sector, having served as Minister of Agriculture
and Food and Agriculture Secretary for past Awami League
governments. She is the only Presidium member to be chosen
for a cabinet level post, reflecting her status as a trusted
adviser. As a woman in a Muslim country, Chowdhury has access
to Hasina that her male colleagues lack. During the February
Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) mutiny (REFTEL A), Hasina entrusted
Chowdhury to negotiate with the mutineers to secure the
release of families confined to their homes on the BDR
compound. Hasina probably relies on Chowdhury for advice on
matters related to her portfolio and women,s issues.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

¶6. (C) A trusted adviser, H.T. Imam rose to prominence when
Hasina appointed him co-chair of the Awami League,s election
steering committee. His recent appointment as Adviser to the
Prime Minister was seen as a reward for his key role in
helping the party prepare for the 2008 elections. Imam's
family's loyalty to the Awami League contributes to Hasina's
trust; his son,s friendship with former DGFI Director
General Golam Mohammad provided a link to the military during
the state of emergency. His nephew is a USAID Foreign Service
Officer. Hasina has recently charged Imam with leading a
special cell to address Bangladesh,s energy problems and
implement development projects. A former senior civil
servant, Imam advises Hasina on nominations to civilian
government posts, according to a US military official. Imam
has a reputation for being corrupt.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

¶7. (C) Hasina,s nomination of Zillur Rahman for the
Presidency was likely in deference to the octogenarian,s
years of party service and his relationship with Hasina,s
father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, whom he served as Awami League
Secretary General. Rahman faithfully served as the Awami
League President after Hasina,s July 2007 arrest. His wife,
Ivy Rahman, who was President of the AL Women,s Wing and
Secretary of Women,s Affairs for the Awami League, was
killed in a grenade attack targeted against Hasina at an
Awami League rally in 2004. Rahman has a close relationship
with Hasina,s family and his wife's nephew is married to
Rehana.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

¶8. (C) Gowher Rizvi is a longtime confidante of both Hasina
and Rehana. He has also been a mentor to Joy. Before taking
up his current position as Vice Provost for International
Programs at the University of Virginia, Rizvi was head of the
Ash Institute at Harvard,s Kennedy School of Government
(KSG). He was instrumental in gaining admission for Joy at
the KSG. (Joy recently graduated with a master,s degree in
Public Policy.) Gowher also arranged for Army Chief of Staff
General Moeen Uddin Ahmed to address students at Harvard in
the fall of 2007. During that visit, Moeen met with Joy,
beginning the discussions that eventually led to Hasina,s
release. Rizvi was present when Caretaker Advisers Ghulam
Quader and Hossain Zillur Rahman met with Hasina and Rehana
in Washington during the summer of 2008 as the negotiations
entered their final phase. He continues to advise Hasina on
security issues and is particularly involved in
Indo-Bangladesh issues. Rizvi formerly served as the Ford
Foundation representative in India and has longstanding ties
with Indian government officials.

-------------------------------
AWAMI LEAGUE,S RISING STARS

¶9. (C) Dipu Moni, a first-time minister, and the first female
Foreign Minister, is a rising leader in the Awami League.
Chosen for the post for her loyalty, extensive
qualifications, and relative youth, her selection
demonstrated Hasina's commitment to reforming the Awami
League. Moni is a physician, lawyer, and public servant, and
has party credentials as daughter of a founding member of the
Awami League. Moni is on the foreign affairs sub-committee of
the Awami League. (COMMENT: Hasina relies on her for foreign
policy expertise. Because of her freshman status, we expect
her influence does not extend beyond her portfolio. END
COMMENT).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

¶10. (C) Sohel Taj, State Minister for Home Affairs, is 39
years old. He represents Hasina,s campaign vision of
"change" but also has strong connections to Hasina,s family.
Taj is close to Hasina,s son, Joy. Taj's late father,
Tajuddin Ahmed, was Bangladesh,s first Prime Minister and
one of four leaders killed in the 1975 "jail killings."
Taj,s mother, Zohra Tajuddin, is a member of the Awami
League Presidium. Hasina entrusts Taj to attend high-level
meetings where few other government officials are present.
While Taj has limited GOB experience, he has the potential to
become a party leader. Based on indications thus far, Hasina
depends on him to handle day-to-day issues at the Home
Ministry. His reach may be broader because the Home Minister
is not very conversant in the substance of the Ministry.

---------------------
SNUBBING THE DISLOYAL

¶11. (C) Hasina has sidelined party leaders and Presidium
members not steadfastly loyal to her throughout her recent
incarceration. When Hasina was in prison, senior Awami League
leaders Amir Hossain Amu, Abdur Razzak, Tofail Ahmed, and
Suranjit Sengupta attemped to gain control of the party and
force Hasina to step down as party leader. While they remain
members of the Presidium, they no longer represent a
political threat. Hasina has also neutralized Saber Hossain
Chowdhury, former political secretary, and former Awami
League Publicity Secretary Asaduzzaman Noor. Both senior
leaders were once very close to Hasina but they consorted
with DGFI during the state of emergency. It appears they have
been cut off from access to Hasina and have been relegated to
seats on the opposition,s side of Parliament.

-------
COMMENT

¶12. (C) Hasina's choice of advisers illustrates that personal
loyalty
is of utmost importance to the Prime Minister, even
outranking experience. As the newly formed government faces
its early challenges, loyalty to Hasina might not be
sufficient for these officials to realize her vision for
Bangladesh. As new ministers and advisers learn the ropes,
the government will also need to put in place decision making
structures. While she was elected with a landslide, Hasina's
ability to repeat her victory in five years will depend on
the government's performance.
MORIARTY
END

http://newsfrombangladesh.net/view.php?hidRecord=364900


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[ALOCHONA] How Mamata almost forced Manmohan to cancel Bangladesh trip



How Mamata almost forced Manmohan to cancel Bangladesh trip



In a major embarrassment to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has refused to join him on his two-day visit to Bangladesh.

Mamata is furious over the central government not taking into account her reservations over sharing of Teesta waters with Bangladesh before finalising the international treaty. She wants an exact mention of  25 per cent cap on waters of Teesta that India will agree to give Bangladesh.

The setback to the Prime Minister's visit was so obvious that his Bangladesh counterpart Sheikh Hasina sent her emissary to cajole Mamata, but the latter refused to budge.

Last week, in a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs where the bilateral treaties with Bangladesh came for approval, Railway Minister Dinesh Trivedi raised an objection.It is said that in the meeting when the 'backgrounder' was read out, Mamata's  request to keep a cap of 25 per cent on sharing of Teesta waters with Bangladesh was mentioned, but the actual agreement did not mention it.

http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-how-mamata-almost-forced-pm-to-cancel-bdesh-trip/20110904.htm


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[ALOCHONA] USA REJECTED REQUEST FOR SUPPORT FOR POSSIBLE COUP



USG REJECTS REQUEST FOR SUPPORT FOR POSSIBLE COUP

 

 S E C R E T  DHAKA 003164

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2014

TAGS: BG PGOV PINR PREL

 

Classified By: Ambassador Harry K. Thomas, reasons 1.4 b and d

 

1. (S) Summary: Retired Bangladesh Army Chief Noorudin Khan asked for

USG support in ending Bangladesh,s current administration

and in bringing a government of national unity consisting of

senior leaders of both major parties.  Khan said

Bangladesh,s only way out of dynastic government and the

rise of Islamic extremism was to draft a new constitution

based on the presidential system that would prevent current

Prime Minster Zia or former Prime Minister Hasina from

holding office. He asked for USG support for a two-three year

interim government and a constitutional assembly. Ambassador

responded that the USG would not under any circumstances

support a coup against the Bangladesh Government (BDG), would

ensure that any military action against Prime Minister Zia

would result in sanctions against the successor government.

End Summary.

 

2. (S) Ambassador recently dined with Lt. General Noorudin.

Khan (retired), former Chief of Army Staff and Awami League

cabinet minister, who requested USG assistance in bringing a

government of national unity to power and ridding Bangladesh

of Sheikh Hasina and Khaledia Zia through a series of mass

agitations.  Ambassador told Khan that the USG supports

democracy and stability and cannot sanction any extra

constitutional means of removing the government. The USG does

not support military coups stressed the Ambassador.

 

3. (S) Khan responded that Bangladesh,s future is hostage to

two women who cannot put aside their difference for the

nation,s sake.  Khan accused the BDG of bankrupting the

military.  He said the seven top generals &who he derided as

the malevolent seven8 were the Prime Minister,s brother

(Retired Major Eskander,s) classmates and were chosen for

their loyalty and not competence.  He said that the BDG had

started the politicization of the officer,s corps during

Zia,s first term (91-96) and that Hasina had accelerated it

(96-2001).  He recommended that General Abu Tayeb Mahammad

Zaahirul Alam (called General Zahir), commandant of the

National Defense College, take charge of the country.  He

said that General Zahir is a true supporter of democracy and

would form a government with competent ministers from both

parties for two-three years to improve Bangladesh,s weak

institutions, draft a new constitution, end corruption and to

attract much needed foreign investment before holding

internationally observed democratic elections.

 

4. (S) Khan alleged that the BDG fears coups even from its

Eskander,s batch mates and had sidelined Major General Rokon

to the Quartermaster Corps earlier this year because he was

thought to be a threat to the current government.  (Comment:

There is much speculation over Rokon,s reassignment and

while it could have been because he is one of the few

officers thought capable of staging a coup, he is a batch

mate of the Prime Minister,s brother and may have been

placed in a holding pattern until a more lucrative assignment

opens in the coming months.  End Comment.)

 

5. (S) Gen Khan, a former minister under Sheikh Hasina resigned

from the Awami League in early 2004 in frustration with its

inability to focus on the future.  He accused Hasina of

losing her cards8 after the August 21 attack on the Awami

League.  Instead of calling for an independent investigation

and taking the moral high ground, she insisted on repeated

strikes and attempted to bring the government down.  She lost

popular support and an unintended consequence may be that the

BDG no longer feels compelled to solve the crime, he said.

Khan said that an interim military government is the only

alternative to continued dynastic politics.  He said that

first son Tariq Rahman and his younger brother Arafat Rahman

& will terrorize the country, extort money from businesses

and ruin the economy.8  Khan also belittled the political

abilities of Hasina,s son and sister, asserting they were

equally as corrupt and venal as the Zia,s.

 

6. (S) Khan, in part, blames himself for the country,s

current predicament.  He said that when Bangladeshi military

dictator General Ershad was forced out office in 1991, then

Pakistani military chief Aslam Beg, an old friend and

colleague sent him an emissary urging that Khan become the

President. When Khan refused, Beg asked whom should Pakistan

support. Khan recommended that Pakistan support the BNP

because it consisted of military officers and small

businessmen he believed would lead the country in the right

direction.  Pakistan, then used ISI to fund the BNP and

India,s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) began funding the

Awami League. Such funding continues to this day, Khan said.

We have become the playground for India and Pakistan.  Khan

claimed that New Delhi was unhappy with Sheikh Hasina,s

performance and funded both parties during the 2001

elections.  He claimed that RAW funded Tariq Rahman, who

pledged to deliver his mother on gas exports and water

sharing differences but was unable to do so. He predicted New

Delhi would work hard to bring Hasina back to power in 2006.

 

7. (S) Khan said that the BDG is catering to the "disastrous

policies" of Islamic parties in the ruling coalition to

ensure that it wins the 2006 elections.  He blamed the BDG,s

decision to ban books of the Ahmadiyya sect and not to

follow-up on attacks in the northern city of Sylhet on the

British High Commissioner and the Mayor on its need to

protect the Islamists.

 

8. (S) On September 13, Lt. Gen. Mahbubur Rahman, another

retired Army Chief and current BNP MP, told Ambassador that

the military would always look to the USG for a signal to go

ahead with a coup. He said that the USG had played a positive

role in helping to thwart two potential coups in 1996 and a

no from the USG would always carry weight.  While expressing

disdain for Sheikh Hasina and Begum Zia, Rahman predicted

that Bangladesh would be under dynastic leadership for at

least another generation.  He said that the Army views itself

as Bangladesh,s only respected organization and does not

want to interfere in civilian politics.  Earlier Major

General Chowdhury, retired, told us that the military would

do nothing to risk its participation in UN peacekeeping

missions.

 

Bio Note Zahir

 

9. (S) General Zahir is a graduate of the British Staff

College at Camberley and has traveled extensively, including

the U.S. for military conferences.  He also served a

battalion commander in UNIKOM.  Zahir has commanded two

brigades and two divisions (most officers only get one

command opportunity at each level) and is well respected by

colleagues.

 

10. (S) Comment: Khan maintains excellent ties to the

military but may be acting on his own.  Many interlocutors

discount the possibility of a coup but we will keep a close

eye on military activities. We will take advantage of DAS

Patterson,s October visit to arrange speaking opportunities

and meeting with the military to stress the importance of

civilian leadership, including an address to the National

Defense College and a meeting with General Zahir.

 

11.  (S) The United States has tremendous leverage over both

the Bangladeshi military and civilian rulers because of

Dhaka,s increasing role in UN peacekeeping missions.

Bangladesh currently has 12,000 troops participating in UNPKO

and we should use the carrot and stick approach to remind

Dhaka that: a) a coup would end their participation in PKO

and b) that failure to solve terrorist crimes and allowing

Islamist groups to operate would call into question

Bangladesh,s ability to join PKOs.   End Comment.

 

 

THOMAS

 

------------------------------------------------------------------- 

SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR AND BRITISH HIGH

COMMISSION MET WITH SHEIKH HASINA

REGARDING MILITARY COUP

 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000024

SIPDIS

 E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2017

TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM BG

 

Classified By: Ambassador Patricia A. Butenis; reason 1.4(d)

 

1.    (C) The Ambassador and British High Commissioner Anwar

Chowdhury met with Awami League President Sheikh Hasina on

January 6.  Hasina was not troubled by military involvement, either directly or under a state of emergency.

If the military can intervene and "make things okay," that

would be good, she said.  The Ambassador queried Hasina why

she thought the military would be willing to return power to

the very politicians who created the need for military

intervention in the first place.  Hasina said she did

envision marshal law; opining that no officer is strong

enough to lead a coup.  Moreover, she was confident the

people would not allow the military to retain power longer

then necessary to resolve the political crisis. "There would

be violence, bloodshed, the country could collapse," if the

military refused to step down.

 

Hasina said she would sooner support a solution

involving the military than one that returned the BNP to

power. 

 

7.    (C) Comment:  Rumors have been rampant for months about

a possible military solution -- ranging from simple military

support for the Caretaker Government or a military role under

a constitutional state of emergency to extra-constitutional

proposals for a military-backed national unity government or

an outright coup.  The Embassy has consistently stressed both

publicly and privately that we would oppose any

unconstitutional move by the military and that even a state

of emergency should be avoided if at all possible.  Embassy

contacts within the military continue to insist that a coup

is not in the cards and the actions of the military will

remain within constitutional bounds.  End comment.

BUTENIS

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

SUBJECT: MILITARY SAYS NO TO POLITICAL ROLE,

EXTRA-CONSTITUTIONAL ACTION FOR NOW.

 S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DHAKA 000056

 SIPDIS

NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2017

TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM BG

 

REF: A. DHAKA 39

 

     B. DHAKA 32

 

Classified By: Ambassador Patricia A. Butenis; reason 1.4(d)

 

1.    (C) Summary:  Political factions, leading business

organizations and civil society are seeking international

support for military solutions to the present political

crisis, creating intense pressure on the military to act.

Our embassy, the British High Commission and other missions

in Dhaka continue publicly and privately to oppose any

extra-constitutional role for the military.  The military is

presently constitutionally deployed to maintain law and

order.  Senior military officers so far vow to keep the

military politically neutral and to refrain from

unconstitutional actions.  End Summary.

 

No Military Support for Martial Law/Coup

----------------------------------------

 

4.    (S/NF) The Ambassador and DATT met January 7 with Army

Principal Staff Officer Major General Md. Jahangir Alam

Choudhury (the senior military officer in the military) to

reinforce our positions against military intervention and

solicit his views.  DATT held a similar meeting January 9

with Chief of Army Staff Lt. Gen. Moeen U Ahmed.  Both

officers said there is no appetite among military officers or

the rank and file for martial law, a coup or any other

extra-constitutional action by the military and said they

would not support such actions.  "Why would we support a

coup," Jahangir asked, "when we don't even like the current

deployment?"  (NOTE: The military is currently

constitutionally deployed to maintain law and order. See

paras. 7-9.) Jahangir emphasized that even discussion of such

actions is illegal and any soldier caught doing so would be

subject to arrest.  He urged the Ambassador to continue to

press the Caretaker Government to resolve the political

crisis and to tell the political parties not to provoke the

military as it maintains law and order.  Moeen told the DATT

he had similar discussions with the British High Commissioner

on January 8.

 

State of Emergency up to President but Not Desirable

--------------------------------------------- -------

 

5.    (S/NF) Jahangir and Moeen both stressed the decision of

a civilian government to declare a constitutionally permitted

state of emergency is a political decision for the President,

emphasizing the military is subject to civilian control and

has a duty to remain impartial.  Neither believed they or

other military leaders should approach the President to

"press," "suggest," "recommend," or otherwise try to

influence him on political decisions concerning how to

resolve the political impasse.

 

DHAKA 00000056  002 OF 003

 

6.    (S/NF) Jahangir said he asked the President to avoid

declaring a state of emergency arguing it would not enhance

the military's ability to support civilian law enforcement in

maintaining law and order.  He is also concerned there is no

clear exit strategy from a state of emergency.  Moeen noted

that the current situation does not warrant a state of

emergency but acknowledged the army is doing contingency

planning.  Moeen said he could envision a state of emergency

"if anarchy prevails" but doubts it would come to that before

elections on January 22; rather, he is more concerned about

potential civil unrest following the elections.

 

Political Leaders Still Shop for International Support

--------------------------------------------- ---------

 

10.   (C) The Ambassador met with former President and Jatiya

Party leader Lt. Gen (Ret.) HM Ershad at his request on

January 8.  Ershad also floated a similar scenario, namely a

military backed national unity government as a possible

solution to the current political impasse.  (Ershad's grand

alliance partner AL President Sheikh Hasina earlier told the

Ambassador (Ref B) she was not troubled by military

involvement if they "could make things okay.")  The

Ambassador told Ershad the US strongly opposes any

extra-constitutional role for the military and said only a

political solution could resolve the present impasse. 

 

11.   (C) The UN representative (protect) told the Ambassador

that COAS Moeen had complained to her of the horrendous

pressure he was under to step in, either under a State of

Emergency or otherwise, and solicited a letter from the UN

threatening loss of UNPKO duties should the military act

extra-constitutionally.  Moeen claimed that he could not

"stick his neck out" and approach the President/Chief Adviser

to beg off from any political role for the military without

such benefit of proof of the dire consequences for the army.

 

Comment

-------

 

12.   (C) The bitter personal animosity between BNP

Chairperson Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina is so intense that

both women have said they would prefer to see power pass to

the military rather than see the other woman in office.

However, neither woman appears to imagine that they might be

ousted themselves under military rule.  With both sides

entrenched in their respective positions, frustration among

civic and business leaders continues to fuel public

speculation over ways to involve the military and circumvent

the BNP and AL.  Even activists among the two parties

continue to seek support for solutions that could sideline

"the two ladies."  While we will continue to see attempts to

 draw in the military at least through election day, at this

point the military is holding firm.

BUTENIS

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

SUBJECT: JAMMAT-ISLAMI BANGLADESH DENY

INVOLVEMENT IN ATTACK ON SHEIKH HASINA

 C O N F I D E N T I A L DHAKA 003141

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/2014

TAGS: PTER PREL PGOV BG

 

CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR HARRY K. THOMAS, REASONS 1.4 (B)(D)

 

1.  (C) On September 12, Ambassador met with Jammat-Islami

Bangladesh (JMB) Assistant General Secretary Abdul Razzack

and advisor Shah Abdul Hannan.  Hannan alleged that

India's Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) is conducting a

smear campaign aimed at linking the JMB to the attack in the

public's mind. India's goal aim is to destabilize the BDG and

bring Sheikh Hasina to power, they asserted.

THOMAS

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

SUBJECT: ZIA CUTS SHORT CHINA TRIP TO

RETURN TO RATTLED BANGLADESH

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 004108

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA AND DS/IP AND DS/ITA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2015

TAGS: PGOV PTER CASC BG

 

REF: A. DHAKA 4089

     B. STATE 152460

 

Classified By: A/DCM D.C. McCullough, reasons para 1.4 b, d.

 

1. (S) SUMMARY: PM Zia is returning early to Bangladesh to

cope with the aftermath of the 503 blasts that injured 191

and killed two.  The BNP and the AL have blamed each other

for the blasts, and the Awami League-led opposition has

called protests for August 19 and a nationwide general strike

for August 20.  Bangladeshis are rattled but life is almost

back to normal.  According to NSI, there is "no doubt" that

JMB members "with external training" (read India) conducted

the blasts.  We have urged the BDG and the Awami League to

exercise restraint.  END SUMMARY

 

Assistant Secretary M. Kamaaruzzaman said that those who had

failed to gain public support for their 14-point reform

proposals planned the blasts to destroy Bangladesh's

democracy.

 

7. (SBU) AL President Sheikh Hasina, meanwhile, alleged that

the BNP, PM son Tarek Rahman, and BDG security services

orchestrated the blasts because they realize they will lose

the next election.  Only the BDG, she said, had the capacity

to organize blasts on a national scale. 

---------------------------

 Parliamentary Affairs Advisor S.Q. Chowdhury,  objected to Indian High

Commissioner Veena Sikri's reported statement attributing the

blasts to Islamic fundamentalists, which he maintained was

unhelpful.  He took the point on the need for rhetorical

restraint, but urged Charge to ask her diplomatic colleagues

to do the same.

 

13. (C) In response to Charge's appeal for restraint, Saber

Hussain Chowdhury, Hasina's political secretary, asserted

that at the BNP rally yesterday BDG ministers said that

Sheikh Hasina should be arrested and interrogated.  He

complained that the BDG, as it did after the August 21 attack

on the AL leadership, has set a negative tone that will again

undermine any investigation.  AL members, he continued, have

been attacked throughout the country for their alleged role

in the blasts.  Under these circumstances, he said, how can

the AL trust the BDG or the intelligence services to bring

the attackers to justice?

 

Comment

-------

14. (C) The reflexive slanging match between the BNP and the

AL is disappointing but familiar.  However, unlike August 21,

the BDG this time is clearly concerned about the political

and security implications of the nationwide blasts, and we

should have a sense soon whether it is pursuing this

investigation with genuine vigor, or whether it will again

meander without achieving, or wanting, concrete results.  The

AL, for its part, will try to exploit the blasts and the

BDG's handling of this major embarrassment to finally build

some political traction against the BNP.  Despite doubts

about JMB's capabilities, it is emerging as the group poised

to take the blame for the blasts.  It also appears that at

least some members of the loosely connected Ahlhe Hadith (Dr.

Galib)-Bangla Bhai-JMB combine will be tried and convicted

for the blasts.

CHAMMAS

---------------------------

http://deshcalling.blogspot.com/2011/09/wikileaks-awami-league-support-for.html



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