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Friday, September 3, 2010

[ALOCHONA] 86.7% farmers use chemical fertilizers in vegetable cultivation, 89.3% use pesticides



86.7% farmers use chemical fertilizers in vegetable cultivation, 89.3% use pesticides
 
 
 News - 86.7% farmers use chemical fertilizers in vegetable cultivation, 89.3% use pesticides: Study
 
Dhaka, Sept 3 (UNB) - An overwhelming 86.7 percent of the farmers use medium to high chemical fertilizers like urea, triple super phosphate (TSP), Muriate of Potash (MP), Zinc and Sulpur for cultivation of vegetables, according to a recent study.
 
The study revealed that farmers in the study areas mainly used urea, TSP, MP, Zinc and Sulphur for vegetable cultivation. All the vegetable farmers (100 percent) used urea while 98.7 percent and 96 percent used TSP and MP respectively.
 
National Food Policy Capacity Strengthening Programme (NFPCSP) with the support of the European Union and USAID conducted the study titled 'Effects of Using Chemicals and Hormones for Cultivation and Marketing of Vegetables and Banana'.
 
Principal Investigator of the study Prof Mohammad Hossain Bhuiyan and Prof M Sekender Ali, both of the Department of Agricultural Extension and Information System at Sher-e-Bangla Agricultural University, and Mohammad Mainuddin Molla of Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI) jointly carried out the study with the support from NFPCSP.
 
The study was conducted to find out the effects of using chemicals and hormones in cultivation and marketing of vegetables and banana based on the perception of farmers, wholesalers and consumers, and chemical analysis at the BARI laboratories.
 
Data were collected from 150 purposively selected vegetable farmers of Narsingdi, Gazipur and Tangail districts. Data were also collected from the vegetable wholesalers nearer to the selected farmers' villages and purposively selected 100 consumers of Dhaka city during the period from January to June 2008.
 
The study reveals that only 16 percent and 26.7 percent of the farmers used Zinc and Sulphur respectively for vegetable cultivation. Most (80 percent) of them were high users of urea compared to 3.3 percent and 16.7 percent low and medium users respectively.
 
About two-thirds (64.7 percent) of the farmers were high users of TSP compared to 5.3 percent and 28.7 percent being low and medium users. Only 1.3 percent of the farmers used no TSP. Majority (56.7 percent) of the farmers were high users of MP while 12.7 percent and 26.7 percent were low and medium users.
 
The study showed that only 4.0 percent of the farmers used no MP. In case of Zinc, an overwhelming 84 percent of the farmers were non-users compared to 9.3 percent, 5.3 percent and 1.3 percent low, medium and high users.
 
About three-fourths (73.3 percent) of the farmers did not use any Sulphur while 14.7 percent, 9.3 percent and 2.7 percent were low, medium and high users.
 
The study observed that for insect control in the vegetable fields, 72 percent farmers used Carbofuran insecticide, 67 percent used Cypermethrin, 52 percent used Dimethoate, 36 percent used Fenitrothion, and 26 percent used Lamda Cyhalothrin insecticide.
 
Nearly half (47.3 percent) of the vegetable farmers were medium users (used at times of normal attack) of insecticides for insect control in vegetable fields and 39.3 percent used over doses.
 
For disease control in vegetable fields, farmers mainly used fungicides. Most (62 percent) of the farmers used Dimathomorph with Mancozeb fungicides, 54 percent used Metalaxyl M with Mancozeb, 47 percent used Mancozeb and 31 percent used Carbendazim. Majority (38 percent) of the vegetable farmers were medium users of fungicides for diseases control while 19.4 percent, 6.6 percent and 36 percent being no, low and high users respectively.
 
The overall findings of the study revealed that an overwhelming 89.3 percent of the farmers used medium to high chemical pesticides for vegetable cultivation.
 
Farmers in the study areas did not use any chemicals and hormones for vegetable harvesting, storing, transporting and marketing. But they used Litosen, Okozim, Alga gold, etc. as Plant Growth Regulators (PGR) for vegetable cultivation.
 
Majority (58 percent) of the vegetable farmers were low users of PGR compared to 40.6 percent non-users and only 1.4 percent medium to high users.
 
The study mentioned that 71.3 percent of vegetable farmers perceived medium to high effect of chemical inputs in cultivation on human health. Majority of the consumers (71-76 percent) perceived that the effect of excess use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in vegetable increase human diseases.
 
About 22-31 percent of the consumers perceived that using PGR in vegetable increase human disease and food toxicity, degrade food taste and food value, and decrease crop shelf-life. About two-thirds of the consumers had no perception on this aspect.
 
Based on group discussion of training-cum-workshop with the farmers, it was found that the total effect score of excess use of chemical fertilizers in vegetable cultivation, degraded food taste ranked first followed by degraded food value, increased food toxicity, increased human diseases and creation of new human diseases.
 


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[ALOCHONA] The 1/11 clan



The 1/11 clan
 
 


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[ALOCHONA] The pleasure of being MPs



The pleasure of being MPs
 
 



http://www.prothom-alo.com/detail/date/2010-09-04/news/91715



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[ALOCHONA] Beware of DCC beef



Beware of DCC beef
 
 
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[ALOCHONA] Lawmakers above the law



Lawmakers above the law


 
by Saad Hammadi



 
 
The controversy surrounding AL lawmaker Nurunnabi Chowdhury Shaon and his licensed weapon which killed Jubo League activist Ibrahim Ahmed, once again highlights the penchant of ruling party lawmakers to end up on the other side of the law.

   According to media reports, at least 11 current lawmakers have so far been involved in skirmishes with the law. A special target of lawmakers appears to be hapless government officials who have shown allegiance to the laws of the land, instead of the whims of elected lawmakers. And some officials have been at the receiving end of the full wrath of elected MPs, especially when a government contract, tender has been involved.

   The slap masters

   Awami League lawmaker from Jessore-1, Sheikh Afil Uddin slapped Enamul Huq, the officer-in-charge of Sharsa police station in Jessore, for filing a case against a ruling party activist. Afil was miffed with Enamul for implicating a ruling party activist in the murder of BNP activist Abdul Hamid. Three others assaulted the OC in front of the lawmaker after he was called at the lawmaker's jute mill on August 15.

   Movie actor and Awami League lawmaker Sarah Begum Kabari allegedly slapped Sheikh Shahidul Islam, a photojournalist of a local daily newspaper, Sitalakkhya, in Narayanganj on March 15, 2009. She was unhappy with a report published in the newspaper. But her violence did not cease there. She also assaulted Fatema Manir, an upazila vice chairman, in another incident.

   The bone breakers

   AL lawmaker for Cox Bazar-4 constituency (Ukhia), Abdur Rahman Badi, lost his cool when he found out that a road restoration tender in his constituency had been awarded to Enam Sikder, a Jamaat leader. Badi went to the sight of the restoration work, grabbed Abdul Halim, the executive engineer of Roads and Highways Department who was supervising the work, and started beating him in public on June 16 last year.

   Badi's violent streak however, is not an isolated event. Since the Awami League government came into power, many of Badi's contemporaries have been more than eager to flex their muscles.

   AL lawmaker for Dhaka-15 constituency, Elias Uddin Mollah, was furious on June 30 having been stuck in traffic for a long time. The hotheaded parliament member pounced on Shariful Islam, the traffic sergeant on duty at the Savar police outpost, for failing to clear the way for him. According to a police statement, the angry MP swore at the sergeant, slapped him and pounded him with a stick, so severely, that it knocked him out. Judging by the physical prowess of some its members, it is no wonder that the ruling party members have a penchant for throwing up warnings and threats every now and then.

   Earlier this year on January 6, Zakir Hossain, AL lawmaker for Kurigram-4 constituency, assaulted Mosharraf Hossain, a land office staffin Roumari upazila.

   Moazzem Hossain Ratan, Awami League lawmaker for Sunamganj-1 constituency, beat up Akkasuddin Ahmed, president of Jayasree High School and general secretary of Jayasree union Awami League, for not selecting a person nominated by the MP as office assistant.

   Whose gun is it anyway?

   Juba League activist Ibrahim Ahmed died from a bullet wound that came from a firearm licensed to AL lawmaker, Nurunnabi Chowdhury Shaon. The incident, which police confirm occurred with Shaon's firearm and inside his jeep at the Sangsad Bhaban area on August 13, is still under investigation, with the police trying to ascertain who pressed the trigger. Shaon was elected lawmaker for Bhola-3 constituency in the recently held by-polls. Whether Shaon pressed the trigger or not, the use of his firearm puts him on the top of the list of MPs on the other side of the law with widespread speculation that he may be implicated in the case.

   Land grabbing – keeping with the tradition

   Chapainawabganj municipality mayor Ataur Rahman filed a case on April 9 against Abdul Wadud, AL lawmaker for Chapainawabganj-3, on charges of grabbing land. Wadud and Mahfuzur Rahman, another party activist, were accused of forcibly acquiring a disputed land in Islampur of Chapainawabganj. Althouh Wadud brushed aside the allegation against him, the Court issued a show cause notice asking for an explanation.

   Cronies of AL lawmaker Golam Moula Roni filed four 'false' cases against two local journalists at Galachipa in Patuakhali in a bid to harass them after they had reported on Roni's involvement in land grabbing on a riverbank and setting up a market with his backing.

   How about keeping the police behind bars for a day

   MA Latif, ruling party lawmaker for Chittagong-10 constituency, attempted to force his way into a meeting of the Water Transport Coordination Cell (WTCC) in the port city in June last year. When he was barred from doing so, he is alleged to have sworn at the police officials present there and even had the premises put under lock and key.

   Lifetime presidency

   While most of his equivalents have been playing the 'hard punch', Abdul Mannan, ruling party lawmaker of Jhenidah-4 constituency has been on a different euphoria. The parliamentarian has become president of 11 educational institutions' governing bodies. A person can become president of only four educational institutions in his or her constituency, according to government rules.
 


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[ALOCHONA] New York Times: Solar - Bringing Light to India's Rural Areas

A fascinating read as to the possibilities with applications in Bangladesh too.

September 2, 2010
Bringing Light to India's Rural Areas
By AMY YEE
New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/03/business/energy-environment/03iht-rbogsolar.html?src=busln&pagewanted=print

BANGALORE, INDIA — As dusk falls, the sound of children singing fills the air at the SOS Tibetan Children's Village in Bylakuppe, five hours' drive from Bangalore in southern India. Night descends on the tidy, stone-paved school campus carved out of the lush jungle.

But darkness is dispelled when 20 solar-powered street lights on the campus begin to glow with a steady white light. Thirty dormitories set among groves of coconut palm trees are also equipped with solar lights — as is a nearby Buddhist monastery. They allow 1,000 children to study, eat and play during evening power cuts that frequently disrupt the refugee-village school's electricity supply.

Selco, a solar energy company, installed the lights in 2003. Since its founding in 1995, Selco, based in Bangalore, India's technology hub, has provided 100,000 homes with solar lighting systems, mostly in the surrounding state of Karnataka.

In the nearby village of Doddhosur, about 30 minutes' drive from the Tibetan school, D.S. Shivanna, a farmer, has light bulbs in five rooms of his home that are powered by a rooftop solar panel set up by Selco last year.

Doddhosur, reached by a dirt road that runs between fields of tall corn, has electricity — but power failures are common here too.

"There was no current at night," said Varshitha Shivanna, 15, who lives in the house with her grandparents. During evening power cuts, she used to rely on candles. But now, with solar light, "we can write till how much time we want. We are writing homeworks till 11."

About 70 percent of Selco's customers live in remote areas that, unlike Bylakuppe and Doddhosur, have no electricity at all. Without power, they depend on candles and kerosene lamps for lighting. About 400 million Indians lack reliable electricity, living in a world apart from the bright offices and air-conditioned shopping malls of India's cities.

A two-light Selco home system typically costs 8,500 to 11,000 rupees, or $180 to $235 — no small sum when 60 percent of the company's customers earn 3,500 to 4,000 rupees a month. But Selco works with a variety of local rural banks to help 85 percent of its customers get financing. The on-time repayment rate for its solar loans is 90 percent, said Harish Hande, its co-founder and managing director.

Selco's efforts are one example of India's broader push for solar energy. Alternative energy, like wind, biomass and solar, accounts for less than 8 percent of India's power generation. Yet the need for more clean energy in India is urgent.

India imports more than 70 percent of its oil and natural gas and relies on coal for more than half of its electricity generation. With economic growth forecast to exceed 8 percent this year, India's energy consumption is expected to double between 2005 and 2030. Such growth comes with a price. India was among the world's largest producers of greenhouse gas emissions in 2007, according to an Indian government report this year.

As part of a climate change plan unveiled two years ago, the Indian government laid out an ambitious National Solar Mission this summer. The mission document called for India to increase solar energy capacity to 1,000 megawatts by 2013 and 20,000 megawatts by 2022.

Those are lofty aspirations, considering that India's current grid-connected solar capacity is no more than 15 megawatts, according to Amit Kumar, director of renewable technologies at the Energy and Resources Institute, a private research organization in New Delhi.

"This is only the beginning of a long process," Farooq Abdullah, India's minister of new and renewable resources, said after the document's publication. "The mission is an ambitious leap of faith at an unprecedented scale."

Still, although the targets "look challenging," Mr. Kumar said, "they are really very conservative. We can go beyond that."

Mr. Hande of Selco, commenting on the government's blueprint, said, "Sometimes it's good to be ambitious." But, he added, "the important question is how it can get away from being a Delhi-centric policy. It needs to get out of Delhi into the hands of people."

With an average of 250 to 300 sunny days each year, according to the government, India seems well suited to solar power. Yet the sector has not taken off, for reasons that include its high cost compared with conventional energy. Coal-powered electricity costs 3.5 to 4 rupees per kilowatt-hour, compared with 17 rupees for power produced by photovoltaic cells.

Other hurdles include fragmented financing plans, a lack of strong government policies and incentives, uneven service after sales, and technical weaknesses in batteries and solar lamps for India's rugged conditions.

For solar energy to develop on a significant scale, Mr. Kumar said, India would need to bring down costs by producing indigenous technologies, devote resources to research and development and create a dedicated body independent of the central government to act as an advocate for the sector.

Plans exist to develop more large solar farms to connect to the power grid. Still, given India's diverse geography and income levels, solar farms are not the whole answer. Other options are also needed, including solar lanterns for individuals and rooftop solar panels like the ones at the Tibetan Children's Village in Bylakuppe.

Mr. Kumar's research institute brought new solar LED lanterns to market this summer, priced at 800 to 1,000 rupees, as part of its own solar initiative, which has reached 30,000 households since 2008.

Yet, despite the need and demand for solar energy, even well-established companies like Selco face their share of challenges.

Selco broke even in 2001, and profit reached 3.15 million rupees in 2005. But large German subsidies for solar installations caused a sharp spike in the price of panels from 2006 to 2008 as supply tightened. The surge in prices "almost killed us," Mr. Hande said.

The company had a loss of 7.5 million rupees in 2008-9 but returned to profit in the 2009-10 financial year, earning 3.8 million rupees on revenue of 150 million rupees.

Selco now has 150 employees, and Mr. Hande acknowledged that finding skilled employees was the company's biggest challenge and the main constraint on its growth.

India's top graduates want lucrative, prestigious jobs in technology or business, not in villages, and midlevel managers at Selco could make five times as much elsewhere, he said. But "the higher you pay, the less they will go into rural areas. Our education system is not geared toward social consciousness."

That seems not to apply to Mr. Hande himself, now 41. A graduate of the prestigious Indian Institute of Technology in Kharagpur with a degree in energy engineering and the holder of a doctorate from the University of Massachusetts, he began to conceive Selco while a graduate student after seeing people using solar lights in the Dominican Republic.

Although 5 percent of Selco's business now comes from outside Karnataka, Mr. Hande is not seeking growth in a wider market.

Instead, he wants to focus on lower-income Indians, the urban poor and ways to use renewable energy to raise incomes. For example, could a motor running on alternative energy be developed to power a customer's sewing machine or rice mill?

"Where else could we make a sustainable energy intervention?" Mr. Hande asked. "It could be in lighting or it could be in cooking. If a 1,000-rupee intervention for a cook stove would make a difference, we should do it. This will throw up surprises, as well as for the future of Selco itself."

"We want to go deeper into the strata," he added. "Geographical expansion is low-hanging fruit. Let someone else do it."

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[ALOCHONA] Halal Cosmetics



looks like halal everything is now the rage.

 

Halal make-up entrepreneur denies exploiting religion Thursday, August 19, 2010
http://www.gg2.net/halal-make-up-entrepreneur-denies-exploiting-religion-2879.aspx
Strictly religious: Samina devised her own make-up line that adheres to her religion

AS A MUSLIM, Samina Akhter was disturbed to find some of her make-up contained pig by-products so she came up with a solution - a range of halal make-up, free from alcohol and animal products.

 

Under Islamic law, alcohol and certain meats are forbidden with pork especially taboo so Akhter was shocked to learn some of the products she used contained alcohol and even pig placenta.

 

So she devised her own make-up line, Samina Pure Make-up, launched from her home in Birmingham in June this year after two years of testing which now boasts to be Britain's first company to sell halal-certified cosmetics.

 

"This has been on my conscience," Akhter, 41, a mother of five, told reporters.

 

"I realised many (make-up product) do contain ingredients that are not permissible to Muslims to eat and I just started thinking, well if it's not permissible to eat, then why should I put it on my face?"

 

The range, which is mainly sold online, includes items like foundation, blush, eyeshadows and lipsticks, priced from about £8 ($12.50) and is initially targeted at the almost one million Muslim woman living in Britain.

 

Mascara is still unavailable as the process of making a halal version is still being studied.

Akhter said in keeping with Islamic law, her make-up is made by manufacturers in Australia and Europe from plant extracts, minerals, essential oils and vitamins.

 

The cosmetics are certified by the independent Halal Certification Authority Australia.

 

Akhter said she now has more than 500 customers and interest in the cosmetics has come from Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and the Middle East.

 

She said the halal range, free of chemicals and animal products, had also proved popular with vegans and vegetarians.

 

Some Muslim leaders have criticised Akhter for exploiting a religious concept.

 

But she argues there is demand for halal make-up with about 1.6 billion Muslim worldwide but only a small number of companies offering cosmetics or other bath products that conform to halal standards.

 

"The reaction I've had from women so far has been so positive and encouraging," said Akhter who is looking to expand beyond Britain and to get her products into pharmacies and stores.

 

"I really feel that this product has actually filled a gap in the market. So it's not a case of trying to cash in. It's a case of providing people with something they're looking for."

 



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Fwd: [ALOCHONA] Chinese Special Forces cut off Siliguri corridor: 2012







So India wants to go to wars based on fiction like America and has ambition to elect world class idiot like George Bush in future?

Now seriously, I wonder why all Indian "Fiction" writers miss their own people? There are plenty of Indians who are fed up with federal government in Delhi. I think they are the biggest threat for India ( As pointed out by  PM Manmohan Singh).

Pakistan is not capable of making any dent to India and China has no reason to mess with India (Other than protecting her boarder). So why India is so bent up looking for enemies?


-----Original Message-----
From: Isha Khan <bdmailer@gmail.com>
Sent: Sat, Aug 21, 2010 12:06 pm
Subject: [ALOCHONA] Chinese Special Forces cut off Siliguri corridor: 2012

 
Chinese Special Forces cut off Siliguri corridor: 2012
 
India has the potential to be to Asia, what America is to the world – a symbol of hope, liberty and freedom.
 
Closed societies like China or Pakistan do not fit the bill. Due to authoritarian regimes in Beijing and Islamabad, in times to come they will remain preoccupied with growing internal societal turmoil. Therefore, they will naturally tend to threaten democratic India, militarily and with the help of their irregular forces to divert attention from the brewing internal storm. Particularly true, as on one hand, the Indian democracy negates their authoritarian philosophy, and on the other, the Union is perceived as a soft target to be conquered or cause rupture.
 
But technology driven 21st century cannot be China's century in Asia as is being touted by its proxy Pakistan or the Chinese themselves. Simply as these are very brittle, regressive and perpetually paranoid societies that cannot sustain such enlarged influence as they get into an over reach. While the People's Liberation Army, the largest in the world consists of 3.5 million soldiers to project power; Beijing employs whopping twenty-one million to police the dissent internally!
 
Military threat from such dictatorial regimes will increase to free societies as the western democracies retreat from Asia. There already exists a severe trust deficit between China and the small countries in the region.
 
Possibly India is the only country in Asia that boasts of the potential to occupy the strategic high ground gradually being vacated by the retreating western forces, provided it develops offensive orientation at the political level. Unlike China, its soft power increasingly impacts on Asia. The young demographic profile will continue to propel Indian economy to greater heights at least till end of the year 2050. China's ageing profile shows trends that it will, first grow old then rich, unlike Japan, which grew rich then old. India if governed fairly well, will grow rich and then old like Japan.
 
India's multi-ethnic, multi-cultural and multi-religious society is the melting pot in Asia that benefits from rich diversity and open society. However, it is not as fortunate to be situated geographically in a safe haven like America, which is surrounded by nations with similar values.
 
THE HISTORICAL THREAT
 
Historically, the direction of demographic flow for centuries saw invasions from Central Asia to capture Delhi. Every fifty to hundred years, the subcontinent due to the genius of natives tends to generate wealth. From time immemorial this attracted hordes of invaders from Central Asia. Delhi Durbar was unable to defend itself as it neglected its military. Time and again, the rulers in Delhi were subjugated, as their incompetence in wielding the military was pathological.
 
 
map
Once again India is generating vast wealth. Once again it refuses to defend it!
Despite historical lessons of defeat at the hands of marauding armies, Delhi Durbar's incompetence and ignorance in equipping the excellent military machine inherited from the British is again on display. Today the danger of disruption to the Union is much higher than in the previous centuries. Worse, the lack of offensive orientation in political thinking degrades the ability of the military to defend the Union from the extraordinary threat developing on its borders.
The level of danger continues to creep north from "orange" to "red" on our land borders primarily on two counts. First, as a deception plan Pakistan on its birth, professed to be secular, while in reality the leaders wanted a purely Islamic state. As a result the minority Hindu population of more than thirteen percent in a population of 76 million in 1947 got reduced to barely two percent even as the population of Pakistan increased in 2004 to 156 million. After refusing to share power with the Bengalis in the East and breaking up their country, the Pakistani Sunnis not satisfied with this calibrated purge, now want to eliminate the Shias and expel the Ahmadiyas from Islam.
In its devious journey towards fundamentalist Islam, it also wants to lock the women folk inside their homes under Taliban diktat, thus negating fifty percent of its population. This dangerous religious philosophy based on extreme form of imported Wahabi Islam is intolerant of worldview of others, wields nuclear weapons, nurtures a Talibanised army that runs a large irregular guerrilla force solely motivated by Islamic fundamentalism, and partners China. The ideology of Pakistan is in direct confrontation with the values cherished by India.
Worse, Pakistan's financial bankruptcy exacerbates the internal instability. This in turn provides cheap human resource, to be used as cannon fodder, by the Jihad Factory run by the ISI. One feeds on the other. Islamic fundamentalism occupies Pakistan's political space that in turn negates Indian influence, which wisely extended up to Afghanistan during British rule. It was the British Indian Army that kept a check on the repeat of a history of invasions from Central Asia.
Ironically, instead of consolidating and integrating Kashmir, pacifist New Delhi is permitting the birth of a similar pocket of influence with extreme philosophy in the valley that will come back to haunt India in the near future.
THE THREAT FROM NORTH
Second, to add to the woes of New Delhi, a bigger threat in addition to the existing one is posed by communist China. While too much 'god' motivates Pakistan, China pretends to be a 'godless' state. Unlike nations that boast of an army, in Pakistan the army owns the state. On the other hand, in China the People's Liberation Army is loyal to the Chinese Communist Party and not the state. Dissent in both is a 'no-no' in varying degrees. Both, Pakistan and China, unlike India are paranoid about open societies. Thus, Beijing and Islamabad share commonality of purpose and together direct their energies to upstage India in international forums, on the borders and by fomenting internal dissent. In a unique 'jointmanship,' Islamabad clandestinely transfers sensitive defence technology it receives from the west to Beijing on 'barter basis' as there is ban on transfer to China!
The concurrent rise of China and India pits them against each other, as they compete for the same resources, but one with an authoritarian regime that is scared of Dalai Lama and Google, and the other with a free society that revels in religion, Dalai Lama and Google.
Threat from China was evident from its maps in 1946. Mao with the help of these maps described Tibet as the palm of a hand with its five fingers – Ladakh, Sikkim, Nepal, Bhutan and NEFA as Chinese territories that needed to be liberated. Tibet was liberated by force while New Delhi slept. Nepal found India's refusal to defend Tibet as a sign of an unreliable ally and thought it prudent to open communications with Beijing.
Today India stands encircled by China.
THE THREAT PERCEPTION
To be supreme in Asia, and impelled by the necessity to divert the attention from the growing internal turmoil, Beijing is likely to design a limited but visible military victory in a joint strategy with Islamabad. Pakistan under severe threat of fragmentation would be more than a willing ally.
With Afghanistan being abandoned by the West, beginning July 2011, Islamabad will craft a strategy to take over Kabul with the help of Islamic fundamentalist groups. The irony is that in the aftermath of the exit of the West; Taliban will occupy the Parliament being built by India in Kabul and connive disruption from there of the Indian Union. These groups will not target the West immediately since the latter retains the ability to re-intervene once inaction is deemed as 'suicidal'. The Taliban will initially concentrate on unraveling a soft target like India in concert with Beijing -Islamabad -Kabul or Chinese Communists- Pakistan Army- Irregular Forces axis.
The physical threat to India will materialize in 2012, after the exit of the American forces from Afghanistan. Earlier India had to contend with a single threat from its West/Central Asia. Now another threat posed from the North under a joint strategy between China and Pakistan has emerged.
The developing scenario suggests that henceforth GHQ Rawalpindi will further orchestrate provocation against India to regain lost ground in J&K by way of rallies in PoK or Lahore and through military machinations on our borders. It will provide fillip to terrorist attacks, export of fake currency, inserting terrorists in India through Nepal, activation of sleeper cells, and raising controversy on non-issues like water. Beijing while talking ambiguously up to 2012 buildup will continue to support the Maoists in Nepal and step up training and funding to Maoist in India. The intensity of Cyber War will meanwhile increase.
In nutshell, the objective will be to keep India off balance.
THE STRATEGY
By 2012, to unravel India, Beijing is likely to para-drop a division of its Special Forces inside the Siliguri Corridor to sever the Northeast. There will be simultaneous attacks in other parts of the border and linkup with the Special Forces holding the Siliguri Corridor will be effected. All these will take place under the nuclear overhang. In concert Islamabad will activate the second front to unhook Kashmir by making offensive moves across the IB in the plains and the desert to divide Indian reaction capability. Meanwhile the fifth columnists supporting these external forces will unleash mayhem inside.
Two key question for New Delhi:
  1. Will India go nuclear if its territorial integrity is threatened? France's stated policy is that it will use the nuclear option, if Germany is attacked. Germany is not likely to face a nuclear adversary, yet France will use nuclear option if it is attacked. India faces threat from two nuclear powers in its vicinity. Will India shift its stated position of second strike to first strike, if the territorial integrity of the Union is under threat?
  2. Will New Delhi have the gumption to order the Navy to retaliate and stop the flow of cargo in the Indian Ocean being freighted to China? Or will it order the Air Force to conduct offensive and decisive strategic strikes inside Tibet?
New Delhi requires to develop offensive orientation in its thinking for the answers to be in affirmative. India has produced more than its share of great thinkers in civil affairs. However, being a pacifist society, it does not boast of a single military thinker of repute. Therefore, we should not hesitate to import knowledge from the best military thinkers to create an assertive society, just in the same way, as we need to import the best defence technologies to set up the most modern defence industry hub that ensures expansion of democratic space in Asia.
The ideal opportunity for China to dismember India is between 2011 and 2014 on multiple counts. First, to divert attention from the growing dissent within. Second, beyond this period, Pakistan as a fragmented nation may not exist to support the Chinese. Third, the change of generation by 2015 will witness an assertive India. Fourth, the new Indian assertiveness will ensure rapid modernization of the Armed Forces with robust military capabilities. Last but not the least, given the fact it does not pose threat to any country, India will create strong international alliances. It is in a unique position and gets along well with the West, as well as countries like Russia and others. In fact, the international opinion will decisively tilt in favour of India if it shrewdly deals the powerful geo-economic card held in the arsenal.
The answer to the outlined nightmare stares India on its face.India simply needs to take out the cost-benefit ratio from the game plan of the opponent by rapidly acquiring the requisite military muscle that outguns and outclasses the adversary. War is akin to business. If there is no cost-benefit ratio, it cannot be imposed! Such assertive actions will also naturally propel India in Asia as the most influential player and arrest the slide of retreating democracies.
Bharat Verma, Editor Indian Defence Review and author of the book Fault Lines and Indian Armed Forces.


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