Tipaimukh Dam: Its nuts and bolts need dovetailing
Ignorance is a bliss. It does appear to be so to many of us shown by portrayal of our body language as well as vocabulary inasmuch as the magnitudes of the portents of Tipaimukh Dam that are rushing towards Bangladesh like a giant amoebic demon are yet to be grasped fully.
Presentation in this article has been dovetailed through collation, analysis and summation of the nuts and bolts of Tipaimukh Dam in order to help, to some extent, keep ourselves aware and abreast of the situation. Data have been obtained from sources like, speeches, write-ups, through interpolation, through line of best-fits based on statistical average theory and some upon off-hand estimates.
Concise background:
Farakka Barrage (FB) :-It has been a burning issue since the mid-sixties. India did not pay much heed to the demand and necessity of water of the Ganges by the lower riparian Bangladesh. India unilaterally constructed the FB experimentally in 1972 with the concept and stipulation therefor to divert small portion of the water of the Ganges flow to the river Bhagirathi to increase navigability of the Calcutta Port. Bangladesh, however, realized it in 1974 that the Ganges flow due to construction of FB, only 11 miles off the border started scaling down the water flow to Bangladesh by half and at times almost at zero level. In 1976 FB was put into full operation and in due course of time India started withdrawal of water not for Bhaghirathi only but at places at upstream of the Ganges, e.g. Bihar and U P, proving how fragile have been the stipulations of India, breach of which has already led to render 80 rivers drying-up and 11 rivers dead in Bangladesh. It has virtually destroyed the deltaic basin in Bangladesh.
Teesta Barrage (T.B) :-
India constructed in 1990 a barrage along the river Teesta, called the Teesta Barrage which has in turn made the Teesta Barrage constructed by Bangladesh absolutely ineffective.
Riparian River Linking (Link Canal) :-
(i)Upper Riparian Rivers Linking: It means linking of 14 Himalayan rivers in Northern India.
(ii) Lower Riparian Rivers Linking: This project involves 16 peninsular rivers including the Ganges and Brahmaputra.The project has virtually cast its eyes for withdrawal of Brahmaputra water for diversion to the water hungry provines of U.P, Bihar, MP, Andhra, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Chennai. India is also constructing two dams in Nepal for hydropower and perhaps augmentation of water for the Ganges to divert water through the link canal to South India. Whereas Nepal has contributed sites for the dams and is likely to have its access to power and water, the project will leave for Bangladesh a high-dried scenario.
The lower riparian rivers link project is bound to change the river course from N-S to E-W course. At the rate of 6000 cu m/sec during lean period six months i.e. Dec-May flow equivalent to the total flow of 200 bn cu m for 6 months, which if withdrawn substantially for the lower riparian rivers link canal will certainly lead the GMB Basin in Bangladesh to a catastrophe affecting all spheres of activities of economy, livelihood and ecosystem.
In 2002, the Supreme Court of India gave a judgment in favour of the link canal project upon a writ petition but the Indian political arena considering internal geopolitics, pro-people stand, huge funding, inadequacy in technical feasibility and viability has so far kept mum on the issue.
Earlier, National Commission for Water Resources of India in a report in 1999 mentioned that in the lower riparian link project involving the flow of three major rivers of Bangladesh for sharing, India's portion down the Himalayas will fetch no profitability until gestation period of right up to 2050.
It may also be worth mentioning here that according to a survey a withdrawal of 20% of Brahmaputra's water by India (India asks for 40%) will render at least 100 rivers in Bangladesh as dead-dry.
China's Eye on the Brahmaputra's flow:
China has planned to build a dam upon Yarlung-Tsangpo point on the Brahmaputra river in Tibet, when completed, will divert water to the Yellow river a quantum of 200 bn cu m per annum equivalent to that of the entire lean season 6 months flow of Brahmaputra river. It is easy to comprehend as to how much India can get out of Brahmaputra's flow, once Chinese dam is put in operation, and how much can India afford to release to Bangladesh. This apprehension India has got to foresee as much as Bangladesh would, in view of the riparian state of both in the respective cases in point.
Should India outbargain Bangladesh on the issue of Tipaimukh Dam and Fulertal Barrage, on the same analogy China is likely to do that at the upstream.
Tipaimukh Dam and Fulertal Barrage:-
(i)Reference as FB, TB and specially lower riparian rivers linking canal project of 16 peninsular rivers has been cited to highlight total impacts of the three major international rivers, the Ganges, Meghna and Brahmaputra (GMB), whose downstream last riparian country is Bangladesh. That will take a heavier toll than otherwise upon operation of Tipaimukh Dam and Fulertal Barrage on Bangladesh.
In the process of desertification Bangladesh will become unlivable for Bangladeshis and soon this basin will become a no-man's land after having been inflicted by four-front attack i.e. from N-E-W river flow attack due to either shortage creating desertification or excess inundating with floods and of course from the South i.e.
Bay of Bengal wherefrom will come the upsurge of water with all its might having concentrated salinity on account of global warming due to ozone layer thinning by the discharge of CFC contributed in bulk by the most industrialized nations, though Bangladesh contributes practically nothing or little in the ozone thinning process
(ii) Dam and Barrage:-
Dam is like a reservoir to contain water at higher level for a controlled discharge through the turbines to generate electricity e.g. Karnaphully-Kaptai Dam.
Hydroelectricity project having no provision of withdrawal of water upstream or downstream of the dam will have little variation, in the quantum for the year as a whole, in the downstream water flow based on the theory of constancy for the whole year recycle, set aside seasonal variation.
But quantum of water flow downstream of the dam depending upon season will fluctuate seasonwise as well as variation in rainfalls due to controlled release of water through the turbines and spillway gates of the dam, needed to generate electricity at certain capacity and also in view of the storage capacity for holding water by the dam and level so required.
Thus, while the annual quantum of water flowing downstream will be more or less, somewhat same but the water flow downstream of the dam will fluctuate substantially either creating floods, waterlogged and waterholds or perhaps high-dried scenario almost zero flowmetry of not cognizable dimension or proportion
(iii) Barrage is to contain water at a level with objective to withdraw for diversion elsewhere e.g. F.B. The purpose of a Barrage is mainly for withdrawal to divert, but it, all, depends upon how much, when and where for withdrawal and how much to release for the lower riparian country of the total intakeflow. For example, F.B was originally designed and contemplated to make the Calcutta Port more navigable with withdrawal of water via Bhagirathi river but due to rampant withdrawal all the way through upon the Ganges flow at the upstream of F.B. desertification process has already been in progress for 16 districts i.e. one third of Bangladesh at a colossal loss of ecosystem in its entirety.
(iv) Tipaimukh Dam:- It is, in fact, a Mega Dam. India mooted much earlier river harnessing project and accordingly handed over primary project proposal to Bangladesh in 1979 and in 1983, After having completed detailed studies India, however, did never share those data with Bangladesh.
In 2003, Tipaimukh Dam was proposed for the location at ½ k.m. downstream from the confluence of Barak river and Tuivai river lying on the S-W corner of Manipur state. Due to outcry against negative impacts of the Dam across the border as well as within Manipur and Mizoram states of India, construction of the Dam could not make any headway.
India in 2004, however, assured Bangladesh that no further steps would be taken up without any consultation with Bangladesh, but India floated a tender in 2005, opened it in 2006, finalized the design and drawing in 2008, obtained environmental clearance and inaugurated foundation stone laying in 2008.
The completion of construction is due in 2012. Some data relevant to the upstream land of the Dam are shown below:-
One of the largest rock-filled dam in the world.
Height = 166 m, (or 180 m above sea level, 178 m maximum reservoir level and 136 m minimum draw down level)
Length = 390 m
Water containment capacity = 16 m cu m
Load of the rocks = 25 m . MT (app.)
Location of the dam = 200 km (maximum) upstream from Bangladesh border.
Originating from the mountains of Manipur the total length of Barak-Tuivai in India and Surma-Kushiyiyara-Meghna in Bangladesh right up to the mouth of Bay of Bengal = 946 km (of which India = 277 km and Bangladesh = 669 km)
Submerged land in India = 286 sq. km.
(i) Submerged 8 villages
(ii)Homeless, 40,000 people
(iii) Affected 90 villages
(iv) Affected 27,000 hectares of arable land.
Electricity generation capacity = 1500 MW but firm generation fixed at the rate of 30% = 412 MW
About 8% river water to Bangladesh comes via Borak river
Fulertal Barrage: - The issue is still indiscreet. Very little details are known. Neither its aims nor objectives have been made clear. The Barrage is 100 km (app.) downstream diagonally of Tipaimukh Dam and 100 km diagonally upstream of Amalshid in Sylhet. It is apprehended that India may regulate water flow at the Dam and then divert it to the proposed Fulertal Barrage, thus having direct bearing on the flow of Surma, Kushiyara and Meghna rivers invariably affecting total ecosystem in all spheres for the 1/3 area of Bangladesh.
Earthquake Risks:- In the N-E region's earthquake risks zone i.e. Surma Basin, major events are controlled by Dauki Fault system i.e. zone 1 comprising NE region of Bangladesh. With the presence of Dauki Fault system of Eastern Sylhet and the deep seated Sylhet Fault and proximity to the Jaflong Thrust, Naga Thrust and Disang Thrust, it is a zone of high seismic risk with a basic co-efficient of 0.08.
Geographic and topographic features at Tipaimukh and adjoining areas are noteworthy due to drainage pattern of Barak river and structural and tectonic lineaments of the region.Moreover, the main Barak river opposite to Tuivai river is also controlled by Barak-Makru Thrust Fault.
Barak river course and its tributary system are controlled by faults and fractures causing localized shifting and deflection of main river course rendering such faults as potential focal or epicenters of earthquakes.
Thus, having considered the issue of high seismic risk with basic co-efficient of 0.08, past records of earthquakes in the region over last 200 years, the volume and weight of water containment up the Dam at 16 m cu m and weight load of rocks of the Mega Dam at 25 m MT (app.), Tipaimukh Dam's axis falling on a 'fault line' likely to be the epicenter, an earthquake of 7 plus Richter scale dimension will play most devastating havoc with the load and onrush of 16 m cu m water of the reservoir followed by heavy rush of upstream water and weight load of 25 m MT rocks frictioned to pieces, up and down, rushing towards Bangladesh at great speed and thus, pose a threat and might as if that of the "Dooms' Day"
Impacts of Mega Dam at Tipaimukh:-
(i) Tipaimukh Dam without operation of Fulertal Barrage:- It means supposedly no withdrawal of water up or downstream before the flow enters Bangladesh border. Based on the theory of constancy the water flow quantity for the year as a whole will not fluctuate much. But variation will occur seasonwise specially due to the controlled and regulated release of water through the turbines and spillway gates. Thus, age old natural flow of the river water will turn into an unnatural flow.
The following issues are needed to be borne in mind here:
Situation at a hydropower generation of 412 MW (most likely generation will be kept at 412 MW until Fulertal Barrage goes into operation and starts withdrawal of water downstream of the Dam)
Situation at generation of hydropower of 1200 MW (80% of 1500 MW)
Season i.e. rain falls in monsoon, post monsoon and winter periods.
Scenario I(A):- Only Dam and no Barrage. (at a hydropower generation of 412 MW)
Monsoon period: Water level will be maintained up the Dam point reservoir utilising excess water of the monsoon rainfalls giving an effect of less water flow to Bangladesh than normal flow Bangladesh experiences now during monsoon. Excessive rainfalls may cause release of more water through the spillway gates. Water will pass through the Dam downstream in two ways i.e. through the turbines after generation of hydropower and excess water from the reservoir up the Dam through the spillway gates. Obviously, there is bound to be siltation of rivers downstream in Bangladesh.
Post monsoon period : Due to global climate change (e.g. CFC emission etc.) distortion in the pattern of rainfalls has been taking place resulting into excess rainfalls at the end of monsoon and will necessitate release of excess water through the spillway gates of the Dam and may create unusual and unnatural off-monsoon floods in Bangladesh.
Thus the wet lands of Surma-Kushiayara basin will experience waterlogged, water holds, rendering the wet land unsuitable for early cultivation which hitherto the people of this area have been doing from tome immemorial. Hence, there will be less or no crops.
Winter period : The level of water at the reservoir up the Dam and level of turbine operation for hydropower generation of 412 MW we are likely to have a little more quantity of water than we set now in the winter, but much will depend upon release of water through the turbines and, if any, through the spillway gates. However, we can not afford to turn blind eye to the opposite scenario, when we may have less water, even in winter, due to any make-up filling of water in the reservoir up the Dam and level of operation of the turbines.
The basic issue here is that flow pattern will change due to man-made Dam disrupting God-made natural flow. In a nutshell, to obtain our legitimate share of water flow we shall have to depend upon the mercy of the Indian authority who will control and regulate flow through the Dam.
Regulated flow entailing change in the pattern of flow will do a lot of harm due to:-
Reduction in agri-crops, loss in navigability, less water availability, siltation of river beds, off-season floods, dwindlement of fisheries [fishes of the mountain range upstream coming down to the haor areas for spawning or otherwise will not be able to cross border through the international river due to the Dam since no international passports will be issued (?)], lower ground water with more arsenic contamination and as a whole Bangladesh will undergo a total adverse change in pattern of the ecosystem.
Scenario I(B):- The scenario here is as that of I(A) above except that hydropower generation will be for 1200 MW.
The situation is likely to be similar to that of I(A), (a), (b) and (c) above with perhaps, more variation in pattern of flow due to maintenance of level of water in the reservoir up the Dam, more variation in releasing water through the turbines and spillway gates.
Scenario II:- Operation of the Dam and the Fulertal Barrage through withdrawal of water at downstream of the Dam. (Here it has been assumed that hydropower generation will be to the level of 1200 MW involving maintenance of higher level of water in the reservoir up the Dam.)
Monsoon period :- Heavy withdrawal of water coming out at the turbines as well as spillway gates will be diverted at downstream of the Dam to the Fulertal Barrage leaving little share of the water flow for Bangladesh. Hence there will be reduction in water flow for Bangladesh. Only very unusual and heavy rainfalls uncontainable and un-manageable at the reservoir up the Dam also imposing at the Fulertal Barrage a threat towards floods, an increase water flow will be released towards Bangladesh causing havocs of floods.
Post monsoon period :- Depending upon rainfalls, manageability of water level at the Dam as well as that at the Barrage, our wet lands of the Surma/Kushiyara Basin may be exempted from excess water i.e. no waterholds thus enabling early cultivation. However, unnatural and heavy rainfalls may reverse the situation and cause formation of waterholds in the haor areas. Winter period : Heavy withdrawal upstream for the fulertal Barrage may leave little or nothing for Bangladesh at the downstream. Literally 1/3 Bangladesh is likely to go under the process of desertification ensuing a total collapse for 1/3 of Bangladesh.
Adverse effects upon various areas and disciplines like agriculture, fisheries, water resources, navigability, ground water level, livelihood etc. have been highlighted earlier. These will need minor adjustments here and there for different scenarios mentioned above.
(9) Generation of Hydropower:- The capacity designed is 1500 MW @ 80% = 1200 MW (assumed). But the proposed firm generation set at only 412 MW is more intriguing.
Of the expected generation of 412 MW, Manipur has been offered 40 MW free to appease the people there. Thereafter how much India can afford to sell to Bangladesh and at what price, inclusive of the installation of transmission line up to the border and absorption of its cost in the price, all need to be looked at with a grain of salt.
Indian High Commissioner in Dhaka raised a few issues such as :-
Bangladesh will not be affected by the Dam.
India will not build any Barrage (not specified whether at the Dam site only leaving aside Fulertal Barrage?).
Many politicians, elites and experts in Bangladesh, he went on in saying, are delivering "awol/fauol" talks here and there without proper studies. He is perhaps jight in that "without much studies".
The 64 m dollar question is whether he or for that matter his Govt. did share with Bangladesh any documents to study. He is better to relay the message to his Govt. to provide the necessary data to Bangladesh in order that Bangladesh can counter any "awol/fauol" talks from any quarter.
Recently Indian High Commissioner stated in a seminar that the concept of constructing Tipaimukh Dam was mooted in 1972 and after having the proposal examined by their experts, consultation has taken place from to time since then. He further reportedly refereed to the UN-Convention on the Non-Navigable Uses of International Watercourses and said that out of 35 signatories needed to make it a law, only 17 signatories sans India and Bangladesh have so far signed. Well, good enough but where is the moral ground does India have? How about Berlin Rules on International Water Resources (2004),-does he or does he not remember?
Has the Indian Excellency forgotten the provisions of SAARC Treaty for at least, bilateral talks in such a situation? Or does he not have anything to do with the Article VI of the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty of 1976 ? Further, utterings by an Excellency have to be excellent and excel in many a respect. I now tend to agree that having termed the earthquake risks as hypothetical in spite of the simple data stated in this article, though his Excellency must have known all these, an "awol/fauol" talk disregarding the high earthquake risk appears to be a novice expression of a turn-coat-like astrologer's behavior. It is a great joke of this century. Only recently our lady Foreign Minister has indicated of having received some reports/data.
Be that as it may, these reports/data need to be shared with the experts of high repute possessing unbiased mind-set, as well as with the people and at least in Parliament.
Some of our Honorable Ministers/State Minister have been talking like rookies and spelling out a lot of absurdities like, "We will observe the impacts after the Dam has been constructed", "We shall support if we see any gain for Bangladesh"
"It is only a Dam and we shall share hydropower." May God help us!
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