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Sunday, July 20, 2014

[mukto-mona] How to Achieve Sustainable Energy Security ?



How to Achieve Sustainable Energy Security?

Khondkar Abdus Saleque 
banglanews24.com
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It was very encouraging to note that there had been virtually very little or no issues with power supply over the entire duration of FIFA World Cup and ensuing month of Ramadan. Power Division of MOEMR and all its agencies must be credited for that. Highest Power generation was also recorded as 7403 MW on July 16, 2014. 

Some areas may still experience occasional load shedding but those are incidents arising out of power transmission and distribution constraints which according to policy makers are being addressed progressively. Bangladesh is on a mission to achieve its national vision of becoming a middle income country by 2021. For that one of the major milestones is to ensure sustainable quality power supply to all by that time. At present about 61% of the population has access to power and not always very reliable. According to the latest information that we have Bangladesh now have installed capacity of about 10.500 MW but for fuel supply constraint and peak shaving nature of some generators a portion of available capacity remains unutilized. The major reason for this is gas supply constraints and delay in implementation of base load power plants. Revised PSMP foresees achieving 24000MW Generation capacity by 2021 and 39,000 MW by 2030. 

Government is working on this target. But there are various challenges like securing investment to the tune of about 40 Billion US$ for arranging sustainable supply of primary fuel and setting up of required power generation plants, modernizing power transmission and distribution system, building the capacity of technical and managerial human resources.

Requires Effective Fuel Diversification:




Gas Resource is Depleting: 
The major challenge is arranging primary fuel. Bangladesh remained almost exclusively depended on mono fuel natural gas for power generation. Only 5 years back about 85% of power used to be generated from gas. The gas was very cheap and much cheaper than regional and international price. People were hardly bothered about using energy efficient equipment and machineries. Natural gas is also the feedstock for Urea Fertilizer production and fuel for major section of industries apart from being used in CNG, domestic and commercial purposes. Cheap gas triggered mushrooming of energy using industries in supply constraint areas. This uneconomic use of natural gas created unbearable stress on the finite gas reserve and it started depleting at faster rate. Government also delayed in starting aggressive exploration campaign for exploring and exploiting petroleum resources at onshore frontier areas and vast offshore. They also failed to introduce tighter control on inefficient gas use including theft and pilferage. All these created huge deficit of natural gas and many places like Industrial city Chittagong are suffering from perennial gas famine. The maritime boundary dispute of the Bay of Bengal resolutions with India and Myanmar has opened new windows of opportunity for harnessing petroleum from potential offshore areas. But that will take at least 7-9 years to bear fruit. In the meantime Bangladesh have to very intelligently diversify its fuel basket brining in coal  ( Own & Imported ) , Nuclear , LNG , Pipeline Gas Import , Hydro Power Import and Renewable Energy in the energy Mix.  But all these require proper plan and very committed professional implementation.



Local Coal Must be Preferable Option: 


Bangladesh by 2030 will rely on coal for 50 % of its power generation. Present fuel mix is Gas: 65%, Liquid Fuel: 25%, Coal 2.5%, Hydro 2.5%, Renewable, Import and Others: 5%.  For coal to rise from 2.5% to 50% in about 15 years appear very ambitious though government has already signed some agreements and few MoUs for setting up some imported coal based power generation plants. Bangladesh also possess significant reserve of superior quality (High Heating Value, Low Sulfur and Low Ash) coal reserve in five discovered coal mines in the greater Rangpur and Dinajpur areas. At least two of these mines Barapukuria and Phulabri according to experienced mining professionals are ideal candidates for open pit strip mining for recovering about 85-90% coal in place. Mining and mine mouth power generation plants there can generate 10,000 MW power for 50 years. But till writing this hardly any actions are in view from the government to exploit its viable resources. Government instead is strongly focused on imported coal based plants. Bangladesh does not have port facilities for handling of imported coal and storage. Significant investment is required for that. Considering the adverse environmental impacts burning of coal can introduce Bangladesh has to use superior quality coal, use desulfurization plant and adopt Super Critical and Ultra Super Critical technology to minimize emissions. Al these will make power generation very costly. No one has done any reliable in-depth techno economic feasibility study on that. Still policy makers are stressing upon the imported coal ignoring advise of experienced professionals for preferring own coal in energy mix. 

There has been no firm commitment of coal supply from any source; no reliable study is ready at hand for possible and probable power generation costs considering huge investments required for setting up enabling import infrastructure –coal port, storage facilities, using superior technology. All these make reliance on imported coal a huge challenge and we feel Bangladesh is not ready for it. We do not think we should cancel the imported coal option but we want to stress upon utilization of own coal as preferred option for its superior coal, no requirement of transportation. We will need to relocate, rehabilitate and generate alternate income for the local community. We need to professionally address environmental impacts. There have been required extensive studies done. Mining at Phulbari and Barapukuria and setting up large mine mouth power plants cannot create greater environment hazards than setting up such plants based on imported coal elsewhere including Rampal in the proximity of the Sundarbans.



LNG Import:

Like Imported coal LNG requires huge investment in setting up LNG terminal with Re-gasification facility, use prohibitively expensive imported LNG from international market either from spot market or under long term contract. Bangladesh is trying since 2009 but till now very little progress has been achieved.  No reliable techno economic study has been done yet what impact imported LNG will make on our energy users. The weighted average gas price in Bangladesh now is about US$2.00, LNG converted gas will have it @ US$17 at least. In short term LNG cannot be our preferred option. Has anyone done any soul searching why LNG plan got unusually delayed? Is there any guarantee that it will not be delayed further?  What will happen to Energy Security of Chittagong if that happens?



Nuclear Power Option:

 We consider Ruppoor plant is a great initiative and if implemented will create a very reliable option for diversification of fuel. We must not worry about safety and security. Russians operate very safe third generation VVER-1000 pressurized water reactors. IAEA will also ensure that there are bubble tight safety measures.  Russian company will provide enriched uranium and take back spent uranium refuge. But my concern is training and capacity building of our own professionals. We suggest Bangladesh selects smart young boys and girls after HSC those who are interested in Nuclear Engineering and put them under graduation in Russian Universities and expose them directly at every stage of nuclear power plant design and construction. This group must be given required incentives to grow as competent professionals. The first power from Nuclear power plant may not come before 2021. By this time this professional group will be ready. About 2000 MW nuclear power by 2030 will not be a very difficult target to achieve.



Renewable: 

One of my friends once told me if major Energy Company could own Sun and the Wind renewable energy could be the dominating energy option by now. Bangladesh can really create facilities for 10% contribution from Solar and Wind power by 2030. Solar has really broken through by the private sector initiatives and growing, wind mapping must be completed soon and in coastal areas we must go for wind turbines wherever feasible. Bangladesh must also work positively with India, Nepal and Bhutan for exploiting huge hydro power generation in the region.

Regional Energy Trading:
Power grid connectivity with India has opened new window of energy cooperation. Already 500 MW power is being traded. The present connectivity has capacity to extend to 1000 MW. New connectivity from Paltana power plant of Tripura is under discussion. India and Bangladesh has agreed on principal for power transit linking eastern and western states of India across Bangladesh. Bangladesh can also access power from it and earn through transit fees. This transit grid can be part of greater SAARC grid and may be extended to South East Asia on one side and Central Asia on the other side in future making it an Asian Power Corridor.

Pipeline Import of Gas: 
Bangladesh must step up its economy diplomacy for accessing regional pipeline gas trading and do everything possible to access TAPI, IPI and Gas import from Myanmar. Bangladesh should keep an eye on other regional development like Gas trading between Russia and China and its impacts there on.
There are plenty of opportunities and Options. Our primary target is to achieve power for all by 2021. For this our options in order of priority should be
•    Own Coal and mine mouth power plants.
•    Modernize and economize gas use in gas based plants through phase wise converting open cycled generators to Combined Cycled plants.
•    Rationalize gas utilization plan and aggressively exploit gas resources
•    Nuclear Power 
•    Expand and extend Power grid Connectivity.
•    Access TAPI, IPI and other regional pipeline gas trading initiatives.
•    Coal and LNG Import 
•    Renewable Power 
Bangladesh for achieving sustainable energy security will require ensuring Availability, Accessibility of power at Affordable cost. We cannot adopt expensive options. We have very little time to waste. Professionals must be heard and their suggestions must be given heed to. The business as usual energy and power sector management will soon realize that not relying on local coal and expediting petroleum exploration will create huge adverse impacts on our twenty twenty one vision of power for all. We hope policy makers will pull up their socks and get smarter and practical.

BDST: 1024 HRS, JUL 20, 2014



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Posted by: Muhammad Ali <man1k195709@yahoo.com>


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[mukto-mona] Fw: JOY BANGLA VS ZINDABAD !!!!





On , Muhammad Ali <manik195709@yahoo.com> wrote:




On Sunday, July 20, 2014 5:00 PM, Muhammad Ali <manik195709@yahoo.com> wrote:


JOY BANGLA VS ZINDABAD .

Some vested quarters are trying to tarnish the image of 'Joy Bangla', the spiritual slogan of our great liberation war. Joy Bangla was the heartfelt slogan of the struggling bengalis against the Pakistani oppressors . It was a Slogan to inspire our freedom fighters . 'Joy bangla' was stronger than bullet in the warfield . It used to work as an 'Energetic Tonic' during our great liberation war . We achieved our long cherished independence by chanting this slogan . Therefore , 'Joy Bangla' is inseparable from the Independence of Bangladesh . 

On the other hand 'Zindabad' was the slogan of heinous , barbaric Pakistani forces during liberation war of '71. Occupied Pakistan army and their allies Razakar-Al badars used this slogan to kill innocent bengalis , freedom fighters in 1971 . They raped bengali women chanting 'Zindabad' ! 

As we have defeated occupied Pakistan forces with 'Joy Bangla' slogan and as Pakistan is 'History' to us now, therefore 'Zindabad' should be "history' to Bangladesh too . 

Therefore, only 'Joy Bangla' should prevail in Independent Bangladesh . There is no place for Zindabad in Bangladesh . On December 16 , 1971, it has vanished along with Pakistani forces , from the holy soil of Bangladesh . 

Joy Bangla , Joy Bangabandhu ,

Dr. Manik .








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Posted by: Muhammad Ali <man1k195709@yahoo.com>


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Mukto Mona plans for a Grand Darwin Day Celebration: 
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"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it".
               -Beatrice Hall [pseudonym: S.G. Tallentyre], 190





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[mukto-mona] [মুক্তমনা বাংলা ব্লগ] 'আদমজী হয়ে উঠুক রপ্তানির মূল খাত'

মুক্তমনা বাংলা ব্লগ has posted a new item,
'আদমজী হয়ে উঠুক রপ্তানির মূল
খাত'


৩০ জুন আদমজী বন্ধের একযুগ
পূর্ণ হলো। বঙ্গীয় বদ্বীপ
এলাকার এই অঞ্চলের সোনার বাংলা
নামকরণের পেছনে তৎকালীন
অর্থনীতির প্রধান আধার সোনালী
আঁশ পাটের গুরুত্বপূর্ণ
ভূমিকা ছিলো। ব্রিটিশ আমলতো
বটেই, পাকিস্তান আমলেও এই
অঞ্চলের প্রধান অর্থকরী ফসল
ছিলো পাট। বলা হয়ে থাকে সোনালী
আঁশের রপ্তানি আয়ের উপর ভিত্তি
করে রাওয়ালপিন্ডি কিংবা
ইসলামাবাদের উন্নয়ন হয়েছে।
কিন্তু বঞ্চিত [...]


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Best regards,
মুক্তমনা বাংলা ব্লগ ।




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Call For Articles:

http://mukto-mona.com/wordpress/?p=68

http://mukto-mona.com/banga_blog/?p=585

****************************************************

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"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it".
-Beatrice Hall [pseudonym: S.G. Tallentyre], 190
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