War Criminal Debate: A Profit and Loss Account
Ahsan Mohammed
The issue of trial of war criminals came after the
present caretaker government started to arrest corrupt
political leaders of two major parties. It was first
raised by Awami League and its political, intellectual
and media allies without receiving any significant
attention from the ruling quarter or general mass.
However, it gained a new shape when the Secretary
General of Jamaat-e-Islami, in responding to questions
from journalists, stated that there was no war
criminal in the country. Few days after it, a former
top bureaucrat of the government termed the Liberation
War as 'Liberation War and also a civil war' and
opined that the number of people killed in 1971 was
much less that 3 million in an interview with ETV, a
private TV Channel loyal to Awami League. The debate
started in a time when the ruling quarter is openly
trying to implant its favourite politicians in BNP
using state run intellignce agencies, public
universities resumed classes after a long break which
was imposed due to violent anti-government protest,
the government is under increasing criticism and
public dissatisfaction because of unprecedented price
hike and deterioration of law and order. Also the
time of the debate coincided with the first
anniversary of 28th October when activists of Awami
League and its allies killed 7 persons in broad
daylight in the capital and danced over their dead
bodies. It indicates that the debate is not a sudden
one and might be part of a long term plan. A profit
and loss analysis of the key parties involved in this
debate might help understanding the chemistry of it
and its consequence.
The ruling quarter is probably going to obtain the
maximum profit from the debate. The debate will soon
be turned into a cultural and political movement.
Students will be the key force of the movement
resulting in widespread conflicts and clashes in
education institutions. Debates on such sensitive
issue will create clashes between Jamaat supporter
students and supporters of all other parties. Such a
movement took place during 1992-93 resulting death of
more than 50 and clashes in all public universities
and almost all colleges. Such movement will help
reduce the likelihood of forming any anti-government
student movement like the one which took place in
August in 2007. Other issues like political ambition
of the army chief, price hike of essentials,
deteriorating law and order, open interference of
state intelligence in reshaping political parties etc.
will be hidden behind the chaos resulting from the
debate. Further delaying of the election might also
be a consequence.
Awami League started the debate with an obvious aim.
One of its supporters, Mr. Samar Ghosh, wrote in one
of his postings to various Bangladeshi e-groups.
Dear All,
The current situation has created a golden opportunity
for wiping out Jamat-Shibir from the land of
Bangladesh. Previously BNP used to protect them. Now
they should realise that Jamat is not their friend.
Jamat is responsible for the current problems of our
political party. Caretaker government was Jamat's
idea. If there was no caretaker system, the present
situation would not occur. Honest leadership is
Jamat's slogan which eventually influenced some
intellectuals and army. The result is the anti
corruption drive and arrest of our leaders. BNP
should realise that Jamat is not its friend. If it
were BNP's friend, it would took part in corruption
and go to jail together. If Jamat is wiped out, it
will be beneficial for both Awami League and BNP. I
request leaders and activists of both parties to unite
against this evil force. Please remember that
opportunity does not come frequently. We must
accomplish the unfinished task of 28th October.
Samar
The letter indicates that the debate provides a golden
opportunity for 'wiping-out' a political party and
diverting the attention of the media and people from
corruption and other crimes of some political leaders.
However, there are other consequences from which
Awami League will be beneficial in short and medium
term. Jamaat alone was never a factor for Awami
League because its support base never exceeds 10%.
However, weakening or wiping out Jamaat and widening
its gap with BNP will definitely go in favour of Awami
League as it was proven in the past that it is very
difficult to defeat BNP Jamaat coalition in the
election. The reason is not only that BNP gets
Jamaat's vote spread all over the country, but also
people see such a coalition as a united front
protecting Bangladesh and Islam.
However, there are other views in this issue. Since,
Islamic politics is also included in the blacklist,
Awami League might be treated as an anti-Islamic party
to general mass and loose in the election. We need to
remember that it was able to come to power only once
after the liberation war and it heavily used Islam in
that election (1996). Sheikh Hasina used to appear at
the public wearing Burkha and millions of posters with
her picture at prayer were circulated throughout the
country. Even in 2007, she performed an agreement
with an Islamic party promising declaring Kadiani's
non-Muslim before the scheduled election.
It may seem that BNP has nothing to do with the debate
and will not receive any profit or loss from it.
However, a close look into the matter will reveal a
different picture. BNP was affected most by such
debate and movement in the past (during 1992-93).
This debate will create clashes not between Jamaat and
Awami League supporters, but between Jamaat and
supporters of all other parties. As happened in the
past, BNP supporter students will also be involved in
the clash widening the gap between BNP and Jamaat.
BNP is already in a very vulnerable stage. Separating
Jamaat from the coalition will help further weakening
the party and opening new front for the ruling
quarter.
It is obvious that Jamaat is the direct target for the
debate and expected to incur heavy loss. The party
gained significant acceptability among the elite and
educated middle class in last six years. Activities
of the caretaker government helped prove that the
party was the least corrupt and it did not have any
connection with militancy. It was slowly getting the
leadership in the nationalist think tank. It was also
getting media acceptability. Its leaders and
supporters was slowing obtaining a position in private
sector financial institutions, education and
healthcare. The debate and resulting movement will
seriously affect those achievements.
There are other views too. It is unlikely that
criminal cases against Jamaat leaders relating to the
liberation war will be proven in the court of law. If
there has been any possibility, the Awami League would
do that during its rule in 1996-2001. Most of
Jamaat's leaders who were leading the party during the
Liberation War are either dead or retired. Trying
them might not affect the party seriously. Moreover,
there is no leadership problem in the party and
removal of few from the top will only create room for
younger and more energetic leaders who were recruited
from Shibir and got much more experience in politics
at the grass root level. There has been an
interesting shift in Jamaat leadership in last decade.
When the party started operating in Bangladesh during
late fifties, it recruited its leaders mostly from
school and college teachers with hardly any political
exposure. However, during the last fifty years, its
student front has created thousands of leaders who are
now occupying the front and middle rows of party
leadership. So, if Motiur Rahman and Ali Ahsan are
removed from Jamaat, it will not be the end of the
party. On the other hand, it would clear the party
from the blame of war crimes forever.
Regarding widening gap with BNP, the alternate view
suggests that BNP is so busy with its own problems
that it would not be interested in entering into
conflict with Jamaat. Initial reaction from BNP
leaders of both tents (loyal to Khaleda and loyal to
the government) proves it. Jamaat has a significant
share of votes which is almost constant and BNP might
not be interested to loose it.
Will Jamaat's support among the general mass be
reduced as a result of the debate? Election result
does not indicate it. Although it received only 3
seats in 1996 election as opposed to 18 seats in 1991,
the percentage of votes it received was the highest in
1996. Since it is a well organised party with highly
devoted leaders and activists, killing few dozens of
its activists through clashes will only help increase
its support base among the general public.
Another aspect of the debate also needs to be
considered carefully. Those who are raising the issue
are also demanding ban on religion based politics.
Islamic clerics and scholars have successfully
established that politics is an integrated part of
Islam and the prophet was also a politician and
statesman. The demand for banning Islamic politics
will help Jamaat consolidate its position among
pro-Islamic forces. As indicated earler, it also
might reduce support for Awami League.
Smaller parties, mostly leftists, will receive short
and medium term profit from the debate. These parties
do not have any support base among general people;
neither they have any considerable organisations. The
leaders of these parties also do not have any known
source of income. They wait for violent movements
where they make handsome earnings using their
connections with armed groups and media.
The last group of people considered in any analysis is
the general people.
They will be seriously affected by the debate. Public
universities and colleges will remain closed for
months after months, the current economic recession
will only be deepened and law and order will worsen.
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