Power Outage, Nuclear Power Plant, and an Appeal to General Moeen
by Shibly Azad, USA
It is redundant to reiterate that in addition to causing public sufferings, power outage cripples economic growth in Bangladesh. The New Age report (26 April 2008) stated the extent of latest economic cost, resulting from power shortage: the volume of production in the garments sector was reduced to 30 percent; and the production cost of steel and cold storage went up by 20 percent. Earlier it was reported that the estimated cost of power outage hovered around 40 thousand crores of taka annually, as it stifles industrial manufacture and related economic activity, a staggering figure indeed: and that is just for the mere shortage of 2000 megawatt of electricity!
And the situation is aggravating in geometrical progression to the extent that should this trend of power shortage is allowed to continue, in short period of time, Bangladesh would enter into an Age of Darkness. Yet, similar to previous governments, the incumbent care- taker government apparently has no concrete policy, to increase power output by investing and installing new electricity generating plants. It has been reported that the pending electricity generating installation projects are being delayed over and over again, as the power ministry reschedules international tenders quite frequently, often for trivial reason, resulting in apathy of renowned international companies, to participate in such bididngs.
Whereas: a) it requires five to seven years, to install a medium sized (350-450 MG) electricity generating power plant; b) compounded with current shortage of 2000 megawatt, by next decade, electricity consumption in Bangladesh would increase to additional five to seven thousand megawatt. That is, by the year 2020, national demand for electricity is likely to hover around 8000 to10000 megawatt. In order to meet that demand, without an immediate and massive master plan to increase production of electricity, we better ought to forget about dream for industrialization and economic growth. For, one cannot expect increased investment, domestic or foreign, which in turn, would lead to mass industrialization without the certainty of adequate power supply. Similarly, without industrialization, one cannot expect poverty reduction as well as amelioration of public sufferings either.
However, realty is, unlike other countries, Bangladesh has numerous constraints, notably, financial, technological, and lacking abundant natural resource, essential to produce electricity for long time. Bangladesh has little opportunity to produce hydroelectric power further; supply of natural gas is likely to wither away in next 10 to 20 years; and the idea of coal mining at Barapukuria still remains a chimera. Moreover, the latter source of supply can not be yielded in near future in required volume either, as the state of commercial coal mining is yet to begin, a process that again requires 5 to 7 years to realize. Moreover, the decision to award foreign companies to develop coal mines in Bangladesh again is mired in political controversy. In sum, Bangladesh can only rely on nuclear technology to produce adequate amount of electricity. Unfortunately, as Bangladesh lacks money, technology, and managerial skill, Dhaka can only rely on foreign investment in this regard. For, the required technology is extremely complex as well as costly, compared to other means of electricity production, exploiting mineral deposits. Again, nuclear technology requires safety standard at extreme length.
In this context, the explicit Chinese intention to get involved in the proposed Ruppur Nuclear Power Plant Project, enunciated by the Chinese foreign minister comes as a relief. At least, there is a hope that Bangladesh now can think of exploring the possibility of the project. This opportunity however, would not last forever; therefore, cannot be wasted as earlier ones, due to prolong bureaucratic lethargy of our policy makers, who require 5 to 7 years to make a simple decision, when decisions on similar scale projects are made in 5 to 6 months in abroad, including neighboring countries in South Asia. We must remember: China would not wait for us, should we remain idle or get engaged in verbosity of hair splitting analysis. For, it is our headache not their; we must act as if it is either now or never.
Because of the nature of urgency of this opportunity, in this regard, I urge the honorable Army Chief, General Moeen U. Ahmed to step in and take up the matter at his hand, considering it as national urgency, vital to national interest and national security, to laid down the foundation for institutional involvement of the Bangladesh Army, to realize the project immediately. I urge the General, as he has initiated the much desired political reforms, anti-corruption drive, and economic streamlining of the national economy. In order to indicate efficacy of military involvement to overcome civilian bureaucratic apathy, I only would refer to revolutionary reforms and bold decisions taken by the Biman authority, as to indicate should attention is given and priority is set, what cannot be done. And the revolutionary reforms at Biman could have achieved only because of the intention of the incumbent army backed regime. Otherwise, instead of flourishing, by now, Biman would have demised.
In a similar fashion, to realize the nuclear power plant, from initial phase of the project to its final completion, should the Bangladesh Army Headquarter gets involved in the process, in due time, the project would become a reality. However, as we cannot expect to build a nuclear power plant facility quite often, we must have a long term plan, ensuring its adequate production capacity, to meet national energy consumption rate in coming days.
First, the plant must be build so as to that not only its production capacity would meet the exact amount of power shortage when it comes into operation; but also, it would have the adequate capacity to produce and supply additional future consumption. That is, the power plant must have production capacity that must exceed the current shortage of 2000 megawatt of electricity plus the additional projected consumption demand in next seven to ten years. Second, to ensure further production supply, the plant must have facilities and features for future expansion. That is to say, in its initiation of production, the nuclear plant must aim to produce at least 5000 plus megawatt of electricity at the minimum. In other words, we are talking about an investment of around $6 billion, as it requires $1 million dollar to produce 1 megawatt of electricity commercially at a nuclear power plant. Short of 5000 megawatt of electricity producing facility would not solve the persistent power crisis. In simple, the project must aim to get rid off power shortage once for all that currently prevails in Bangladesh, so that after starting its production, Dhaka would have enough time to plan and install new power plants ahead of time in future.
Because of required combined factors: urgency of the project, associated investment cost, administrative competence, technical efficiency, managerial acumen, and diplomatic initiative requisite to realize the project, the Bangladesh Army alone can initiate, lead, and realize the proposed project successfully. Without the Army’s direct involvement, under the civilian government, the project would be shelved for good and blame game continue. As the Chief of the Army, General Moeen fortunately still has one year at his hand and in my opinion, it is sufficient time to complete preliminary paper works, initiate bilateral talk, and start the construction phase. By the time the project would be finished, the General would be long retired, but he and the Bangladesh Army would leave a legacy to boast about.
Shibly Azad
New York City
E Mail : shiblyazad@aol.com
http://newsfrombangladesh.net/view.php?hidRecord=198712
by Shibly Azad, USA
It is redundant to reiterate that in addition to causing public sufferings, power outage cripples economic growth in Bangladesh. The New Age report (26 April 2008) stated the extent of latest economic cost, resulting from power shortage: the volume of production in the garments sector was reduced to 30 percent; and the production cost of steel and cold storage went up by 20 percent. Earlier it was reported that the estimated cost of power outage hovered around 40 thousand crores of taka annually, as it stifles industrial manufacture and related economic activity, a staggering figure indeed: and that is just for the mere shortage of 2000 megawatt of electricity!
And the situation is aggravating in geometrical progression to the extent that should this trend of power shortage is allowed to continue, in short period of time, Bangladesh would enter into an Age of Darkness. Yet, similar to previous governments, the incumbent care- taker government apparently has no concrete policy, to increase power output by investing and installing new electricity generating plants. It has been reported that the pending electricity generating installation projects are being delayed over and over again, as the power ministry reschedules international tenders quite frequently, often for trivial reason, resulting in apathy of renowned international companies, to participate in such bididngs.
Whereas: a) it requires five to seven years, to install a medium sized (350-450 MG) electricity generating power plant; b) compounded with current shortage of 2000 megawatt, by next decade, electricity consumption in Bangladesh would increase to additional five to seven thousand megawatt. That is, by the year 2020, national demand for electricity is likely to hover around 8000 to10000 megawatt. In order to meet that demand, without an immediate and massive master plan to increase production of electricity, we better ought to forget about dream for industrialization and economic growth. For, one cannot expect increased investment, domestic or foreign, which in turn, would lead to mass industrialization without the certainty of adequate power supply. Similarly, without industrialization, one cannot expect poverty reduction as well as amelioration of public sufferings either.
However, realty is, unlike other countries, Bangladesh has numerous constraints, notably, financial, technological, and lacking abundant natural resource, essential to produce electricity for long time. Bangladesh has little opportunity to produce hydroelectric power further; supply of natural gas is likely to wither away in next 10 to 20 years; and the idea of coal mining at Barapukuria still remains a chimera. Moreover, the latter source of supply can not be yielded in near future in required volume either, as the state of commercial coal mining is yet to begin, a process that again requires 5 to 7 years to realize. Moreover, the decision to award foreign companies to develop coal mines in Bangladesh again is mired in political controversy. In sum, Bangladesh can only rely on nuclear technology to produce adequate amount of electricity. Unfortunately, as Bangladesh lacks money, technology, and managerial skill, Dhaka can only rely on foreign investment in this regard. For, the required technology is extremely complex as well as costly, compared to other means of electricity production, exploiting mineral deposits. Again, nuclear technology requires safety standard at extreme length.
In this context, the explicit Chinese intention to get involved in the proposed Ruppur Nuclear Power Plant Project, enunciated by the Chinese foreign minister comes as a relief. At least, there is a hope that Bangladesh now can think of exploring the possibility of the project. This opportunity however, would not last forever; therefore, cannot be wasted as earlier ones, due to prolong bureaucratic lethargy of our policy makers, who require 5 to 7 years to make a simple decision, when decisions on similar scale projects are made in 5 to 6 months in abroad, including neighboring countries in South Asia. We must remember: China would not wait for us, should we remain idle or get engaged in verbosity of hair splitting analysis. For, it is our headache not their; we must act as if it is either now or never.
Because of the nature of urgency of this opportunity, in this regard, I urge the honorable Army Chief, General Moeen U. Ahmed to step in and take up the matter at his hand, considering it as national urgency, vital to national interest and national security, to laid down the foundation for institutional involvement of the Bangladesh Army, to realize the project immediately. I urge the General, as he has initiated the much desired political reforms, anti-corruption drive, and economic streamlining of the national economy. In order to indicate efficacy of military involvement to overcome civilian bureaucratic apathy, I only would refer to revolutionary reforms and bold decisions taken by the Biman authority, as to indicate should attention is given and priority is set, what cannot be done. And the revolutionary reforms at Biman could have achieved only because of the intention of the incumbent army backed regime. Otherwise, instead of flourishing, by now, Biman would have demised.
In a similar fashion, to realize the nuclear power plant, from initial phase of the project to its final completion, should the Bangladesh Army Headquarter gets involved in the process, in due time, the project would become a reality. However, as we cannot expect to build a nuclear power plant facility quite often, we must have a long term plan, ensuring its adequate production capacity, to meet national energy consumption rate in coming days.
First, the plant must be build so as to that not only its production capacity would meet the exact amount of power shortage when it comes into operation; but also, it would have the adequate capacity to produce and supply additional future consumption. That is, the power plant must have production capacity that must exceed the current shortage of 2000 megawatt of electricity plus the additional projected consumption demand in next seven to ten years. Second, to ensure further production supply, the plant must have facilities and features for future expansion. That is to say, in its initiation of production, the nuclear plant must aim to produce at least 5000 plus megawatt of electricity at the minimum. In other words, we are talking about an investment of around $6 billion, as it requires $1 million dollar to produce 1 megawatt of electricity commercially at a nuclear power plant. Short of 5000 megawatt of electricity producing facility would not solve the persistent power crisis. In simple, the project must aim to get rid off power shortage once for all that currently prevails in Bangladesh, so that after starting its production, Dhaka would have enough time to plan and install new power plants ahead of time in future.
Because of required combined factors: urgency of the project, associated investment cost, administrative competence, technical efficiency, managerial acumen, and diplomatic initiative requisite to realize the project, the Bangladesh Army alone can initiate, lead, and realize the proposed project successfully. Without the Army’s direct involvement, under the civilian government, the project would be shelved for good and blame game continue. As the Chief of the Army, General Moeen fortunately still has one year at his hand and in my opinion, it is sufficient time to complete preliminary paper works, initiate bilateral talk, and start the construction phase. By the time the project would be finished, the General would be long retired, but he and the Bangladesh Army would leave a legacy to boast about.
Shibly Azad
New York City
E Mail : shiblyazad@aol.com
http://newsfrombangladesh.net/view.php?hidRecord=198712
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