Dr Ayesha Siddiqa's Monday Col disappeared from the Daily Times of Lahore, whose editor Nazam Shetty -once imprisoned by Nawaz Shariff for being allegedly pro-Indian- has rapport with the US diplomats. It's good that Indian Express has begun carrying her weekly column.
She writes very differently from often-tendentious articles by Chellaney, Rahul Singh and KS.
SR
The soldier who fell from grace by Ayesha Siddiqa 9 Jun 08 (http://www.indianexpress.com/story/320389.html)
These days, it's tough being Pakistan's President Musharraf. The one time emperor-like ruler of Pakistan no longer wears any uniform of respectability, yet he has to perform the difficult task of remaining on the throne without any clothes on. His own military seems to be turning against him since he is largely seen as an American stooge rather than a man serving the army's interests.
Pervez Musharraf, the president, could have survived had the political parties only confronted him. The country's history bears witness to the fact that no military dictator ever left the throne unless pushed out by his own service. General Ayub Khan was shown the door by General Yahya Khan, who, in turn, was forced out by the army's senior command. Similarly, General Zia-ul-Haq might not have left his position had his own men not disposed of him.
This is not to underestimate the work of the political parties, but the fact is that dictators have never left until an equally strong force — which in Pakistan's case happens to be the military — coerced them. In Musharraf's case, a combination of factors, such as the mild struggle of the political parties, influence of external actors such as the United States, the lawyer's movement, which was a creation of his own folly, and Benazir Bhutto's tragic death proved to be the deadly potion which forced him to take his uniform off. Ideally speaking, he could still continue in power because Washington continues to support the former general. A large part of the American policy-making circle believes that Musharraf alone can protect US strategic interests in Pakistan. After all, the former army chief has done quite a lot in terms of controlling nuclear proliferation, keeping the father of Pakistan's nuclear programme, Dr A.Q. Khan, under lock and key and catching al-Qaeda militants. It had become quite convenient for the US administration to operate in Pakistan through Musharraf.
However, his keen assistance to Washington appears to be his undoing, especially within his army that seems extremely uncomfortable with his policies. The bulk of the junior and junior-to-middle ranking officers do not believe that they are fighting their own war in the tribal areas. The disenfranchisement within the defence forces ties the hands of the senior generals who benefit from their alignment with the US, but cannot totally support the former chief's policies due to internal organisational pressures. It is not just for nothing that we can see interesting things happening in Pakistan, such as the exhibition of private videos on state television meant to embarrass Musharraf or the confessions of former Lt Gen Jamshed Gulzar Kiyani or Dr A.Q. Khan. Kiyani's confession on television regarding the Kargil operation still does not mean that the military is likely to conduct an audit of the operation or that it carries the whole truth. But what it means is that some segments of the military are willing to publicly embarrass Musharraf with the intent of convincing him to leave.
There are two possible sources for this campaign. First, the current army chief, Gen Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani, feels helpless due to appointments Musharraf made prior to his retirement in November last year. The fact that Musharraf loyalists occupy most senior positions makes it difficult for the current army chief to force the president to resign as had happened in President Ghulam Ishaq Khan's case during the '90s. He is forced to act like a toothless General Yahya. So, the natural course is to use secret and coercive methods to nudge the top man out. Second, certain elements in the army want Musharraf out and have done all of what is mentioned above. In addition, these elements are doing policy reversal such as unleashing the militants to reverse Musharraf's earlier policies. This group of individuals might be operating without necessarily being authorised from the top, which is a much more dangerous proposition since it means that the military is badly fractured. One hopes that this is not the case.
However, the conclusion is more important — that it is time for Musharraf to leave. The choice is between the devil and the deep blue sea. He could opt to fight it out. In that case, he might face impeachment, which is being suggested by a lot of people. The alternative is to seek a safe exit by resigning and leaving the country, which he might have to do once he leaves the presidency. There are enough unhappy people who might come gunning for him. In both cases, the chairman of the upper house of parliament, the Senate, would become the president until a new one is elected.
Not to mention the third option of continuing in power only with American help. But this is likely to make his position even more unenviable. Musharraf might have a better option of saving his own life if he left peacefully.
The author is an independent security analyst of Pakistan and is currently teaching at the University of Philadelphia. She is the first civilian to be the director of the Naval Research Institute of Pakistan. Views expressed are personal. ayesha.sidiqqa@gmail.com
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