The Indian government has presented a draft agreement to the Bangladesh government recently on land transit for free movement of cargo and passenger transports through Bangladesh to its north-eastern states of Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram.
The move came at an inappropriate time and quite unexpectedly to the public when the Caretaker Government (CG) has no mandate to take policy decisions. Analysts wonder whether the Indian government is trying to exploit the vulnerability of the CG in a volatile political situation.
One does not know why the Indian government has taken the sensitive issues only three weeks prior to the forthcoming SAARC summit in Sri Lanka early next month.
Different political parties and professional groups have already condemned the move. The four-party alliance headed by BNP has already called for protest on July 16 saying the Indian move is aimed at forcing strategic concessions from the weak Caretaker Government to make it a vassal state. "We will resist it to the end," BNP secretary general Delwar Hossain said last week announcing the protest.
The transit issue is not a new phenomenon and has many strategic and socio-economic factors involved in it. The finalisation of an agreement, even taking up the issue seriously for discussion leading to producing a draft is quite sensitive in one hand and requires long home work on the other.
Nonetheless, the Indian High Commission in Dhaka has presented the draft to the Caretaker Government. The High Commissioner Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty has further demanded that the forthcoming foreign secretary meetings of both the countries to be held in Delhi on July 17 and 18 must finalise the agreement.
Another report said India has also demanded the return of Anup Chetiya before the foreign secretary level meeting. Replying to a question last week, Pinak Chakravarty said Delhi will be thankful if Dhaka complies with the request. He, however, refused to comment on transit issue.
The Indian High Commissioner met the foreign secretary Dr Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury last Wednesday and spelled out Delhi's views to him on both issues. It seems that the Indian government is working unilaterally bringing pressure on Bangladesh government on the issues.
Last week, senior foreign ministry officials failed to respond to the queries of the press. Reports said the foreign ministry has referred the draft to the Communications Ministry for follow-up. Secretary of the Ministry of Communication reportedly said they are not in a position to act on the draft, as there is no policy decision on it from the country's present political leadership.
Foreign Ministry sources are also of the view that without the policy decision of the Council of Advisers on the subject there is no scope to go ahead with the discussion and deal with the matter. To their knowledge, he said, the council has not discussed the issue.
They said, these are sensitive issues and as far as they believe only an elected government will be able, and have the mandate, to take decision on the issues. It is not new, they said, such proposals also came in the past but no decision was made.
Observers wonder why the Indian government has chosen the present time knowing well that this government has no mandate to take such decision. Even if it works on the line, court cases may stop it before it makes any progress.
The latest Indian draft says its cargo vehicles carrying containers and goods and passenger carriers would cross Bangladesh territory to reach the north-eastern states through several points. They want to enter the Indian territory and return through Tamabil, Bibir Bazar and Khagrachari crossing over to Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram states.
The Indian government has proposed the right of the routes and multiple-entry facility to and from 'seven sisters', her north-eastern states.
For Indian cargo vehicles it has proposed seven-day stay permit inside Bangladesh and for passengers' transport, five days' stay.
The proposed agreement will be initially for five years, to be reviewed every year. On expiry of five years, it may be renewed.
Earlier, the Indian government also presented proposals for railway transit to the Caretaker Government. The proposals identified five points to carry goods to the north-eastern states. It suggested that goods train will enter Banladesh and return through Gadey-Darshana, Shindabad-Meherpur, Petrapole-Benapole and Radhikapur-Shahjadpur points.
The proposal further demanded construction of Akhaura-Agartala section of the railway and using Ahugonj as port of call for Indian vassals arriving with goods from Kolkata and booked for Agartala. Accordingly, the Indian government is also laying railway track from Agartala to Bangladesh border at Akhaura.
Observers wonder why India is pressurising to take concessions from the Caretaker Government. However, similar moves were noticeable in recent past from High Commissioners and Ambassadors of some other countries who wanted to benefit multinationals of their own countries by winning contracts.
One High Commissioner presented a list of five big projects including some projects already involved in political controversy.. The Caretaker Government so far resisted such pressure. "Will India win its prize this way?" wonders an expert saying the whole issue should be sorted out under a common regional agenda.
According to experts, this region must form an 'economic union' and things are working towards that direction. Here India must have patience and make more concessions before demanding such strategic gains.
The confidence-gap is the number one problem here, experts view.
Moreover, Bangladesh's surface roads and highways are not wide enough and well-built to take the load of the heavy Indian vehicles. The railway track on the Jamuna Bridge has already showed cracks; besides many other railway bridges are in deplorable condition indicating these are not fit to bear the heavy loads either.
One expert argues that India should make heavy investments in the country's communications system in the first place before demanding facilities. Moreover, he said, the spread of AIDS\HIV from the Indian truckers can be a real threat to Bangladesh.
These are the critical aspects that any government in Bangladesh will face in handling the issue.
If India believes Bangladesh's Foreign Secretary will be able to finalise the agreement and the Caretaker Government will be able to deliver the goods, it will be an oversimplification of the explosive issue, said a source.
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Transit remains India's interest: Pinak