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Saturday, December 20, 2008

[ALOCHONA] After we were so rudely interrupted

After we were so rudely interrupted

Dec 11th 2008 | DHAKA
From The Economist print edition

Having failed to clean up politics, the army gives way to two formidable women


Reuters
 
 
NEARLY two years after the army stepped in to end the predatory rule of civilian politicians in Bangladesh, the most visible evidence of that corrupt era is strewn along the streets and dirt roads: unused electricity poles lying about in their thousands. The government of the former prime minister, Khaleda Zia, had bought the poles from a syndicate controlled by Mrs Zia's elder son, Tarique Rahman. Yet the electricity generated during her rule from 2001-06 grew by not a single megawatt, even though the economy's size increased by a quarter.. Bangladeshis are, like the poles, still waiting for their electricity.
 
They are also awaiting a working democracy to tackle some daunting challenges: ensuring adequate food supplies, dealing with climate change and forestalling terrorism. On December 29th some 81m voters get to choose a government in the first parliamentary election since 2001. Yet the army has failed in its effort to topple the dynastic leaders of the two main parties, Mrs Zia's Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Awami League, led by Sheikh Hasina Wajed (pictured above), another former prime minister. These formidable women, the "two begums", have alternated in power since 1991.
Under army-backed rule, each spent a year in detention on charges of corruption. Although these have not been dropped, Mrs Zia and Sheikh Hasina, along with their coteries, are in practice immune from prosecution. Western donors tacitly gave the soldiers two years to fix the mess in Bangladesh's politics and bring the country back to the polls. In return for the interim government not pursuing charges, the parties have agreed to contest the election.
 
Sheikh Hasina's control of the League remains absolute, and she appears confident of victory. Unlike her less pragmatic rival, she has welcomed back leaders who had dared to plot the party's future without her. The League's share of the popular vote was around 40% in 2001, when the BNP won in a landslide, with 193 out of 300 seats to the League's 62. This time, 37% of voters are considering voting for a different party than in 2001, according to an opinion poll carried out by ACNielsen. The BNP claimed last time to have attracted the vast majority of first-time voters, but little is known about the preferences of 26m new voters this time. In all, nearly a quarter of all voters are undecided.
 
Despite this, the BNP, harder hit by the army's anti-corruption drive, appears not to fancy its chances. The party has split into warring factions of Zia diehards and those whom she has not forgiven for their disloyalty. The diehards have worked to undermine the polls, accusing the election commission of bias. This week they insisted that convicted criminals be allowed to run for election. If that was unlikely to fly, the military met another demand on December 10th, as BNP leaders met to consider a poll boycott: it announced that the state of emergency in force since January 2007 would be lifted. Both parties welcomed the move, and the BNP said it was now ready to contest the polls.
 
Campaigning proper starts on December 12th. As usual, policies will count for less than the ability of local barons and assorted goons to sway voters with a blend of bribes and thuggery. From December 20th the army will deploy across the country. Over 250 international monitors will be present. The main fear is less rigging on polling day than pre-election intimidation: the army locked up tens of thousands of people ahead of municipal polls in August. It still needs parliament to ratify emergency rule and guarantee soldiers' immunity from prosecution. If the League wins, the army is unlikely to stand in the way. In a country where political assassinations are rife, the party needs army protection. Sheikh Hasina will not, says a senior politician, want to pull the tiger's tail.
 
The League is so confident that it has now dropped from its electoral alliance the Jatiya Party, Bangladesh's fourth-largest, led by a former dictator (and sworn enemy), Mohammad Ershad. Mr Ershad had claimed that the League had offered him the post of president. It now apparently feels it can dispense with his services.
 
Neither the League, nor probably the army, would accept the result if the BNP won. The generals must fear retribution from Mrs Zia, whom they disobeyed when it became clear that her party was out to rig the January 2007 poll. Supporters of Mr Rahman, he of the unused electricity poles, who left the country for medical treatment following his release from prison with a broken back, want revenge. For now, though, polls by the intelligence services point to a landslide for the Awami League. That will reassure the generals.
 

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