Respected Members of the Forum: Bangladesh is finally ready to create a new milestone in conducting a free and fair election peacefully and democratically to elect its 9th elected parliamentary form of government since independence. Most of the past elections after the death of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman were dominated by personal enmity between the heads of the two main political parties Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). This time however, there seem to be a different angle of the issues dominating the elections. People are expected to vote more on the issues rather than the individual personalities. Thanks to the interim caretaker government to have shifted the focus of the elections. They have successfully implanted a great value in the national elections that they deserve the credit for. It is a great honor for Bangladesh to have received the best positive remark ever by a US politician. Mr. John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate of the US, has had a lavish remark saying that Bangladesh is about to see and show the fairest and just elections ever to be conducted in the whole world. The reason for this lavish endorsement of Bangladeshi Election is yet to be analyzed and understood. It is one of the most important elections Bangladesh ever had, not as much for the timing of it but mostly because of the changing colors of the political parties, their manifestos and the expectation of the general mass. The fight, as always, would be between AL and BNP but the premise of the fight would be different than what used to be the main theme in the past. The main issues at stake would remain to be the identity of the Bangladeshis. Bangladesh has had a split identity since the departure of Mujib. The infighting of the two ladies heading the main two political parties has divided the nation right in the middle. One heads the Bengali nationalism and the other holds the cap of Bangladeshi nationalism. These two identities often bring a fundamental clash of the identity. While 33% believes firmly in Bengali nationalism, the other 33% believes in the Bangladeshi nationalism. 15% constitutes the far right following the Islamic ideology, 9% believes in the left leaning ideologies and the rest are independents. With the alliance of the right, BNP holds a lead with 48% to 42% of the alliance of the Centrist AL and the alliance of the left. The deciding factor of this election would be the power of the independents who are mainly the urban Middle Class. BNP however might loose out about 3% of their base to AL owing to their mismanagement of the party affairs during the transition and the eventual split would cost them quite dearly. The balance of their base support would therefore rest at 45% to 45%.The tilt of the vote would entirely rest on how the independents would vote in this election. The influencing factor of the independents can be listed as follows: 1. The global trends of political winds coming from the west. 2. Who would handle the economy better 3. Who has a better plan for the reform of education and health 4. Who has a better manifesto for tackling the internal security and social justice 5. Who would support the widening of the middle class base · The senses of the global trend would obviously help AL and its alliance due to the elections of Obama in the US. This will get a minimum of 3% of the independents sway to AL and its alliance giving AL a total of 48%. · The economy would favor the BNP alliance because of their positive manifesto to growing export businesses giving another 2% point to BNP totaling their pot to 47%. · Education and health would favor AL alliance by 2% point giving AL a total of 50%. · On the internal security issue BNP is expected to get a favorable vote of 1% over its rival totaling their pot to 48% · The widening base of the Middle Class would favor AL by another 2% giving AL and its allies a clear advantage of 52%. It is therefore, conceivable that AL would win the 9th parliamentary elections of Bangladesh by a clear majority. This would be a great win for the AL and its alliances over their arch rival BNP. The power and influence of the armed forces in Bangladesh would unfortunately hit an all time low, although they deserve to be credited with most of the good work they have undertaken during the transition. Some of their strategic mistakes during the transition, specially involving the students, the intelligentsia, and the mismanagement of the arrest of the two leaders of the main political parties would have serious negative implications with their image as a non aligned force of the country. The single biggest gain of this election would be attained by the Jamaat, who would expand their popular support base by at least 3%. However, their increased support base would not cut away from the traditional AL support base but would be from the BNP and other right wing parties.
Mohammed Rial Ahsan rahsan@dishari.ca, www.dishari.ca Mississauga, Canada Currently visiting Cairo
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