| Dream list, but can AL deliver? | MA Taslim
Bangladesh Awami League delivered its election manifesto with much aplomb on Friday. As is to be expected, the manifesto is full of grievances against the past administrations and rosy promises for the future if AL is elected to power.
It has gone to great length to please the electorate with a long list of desirable milestones that very few patriotic citizens will take issue with.
It's a dream list; but if AL awakens to find itself in power can it deliver? Can anyone deliver?
Promises
AL has promised to make commodity prices, corruption, power, poverty and governance top priority issues.
But, it is surprising (and disappointing) that the party, which has such a strong political base and large following in the educational institutes of the country, did not consider education a priority issue. The neglect of education will hurt a lot of AL sympathisers and others.
There is now an increasing realisation, even among the business community, that the poor state of education and skill is among the most serious constraints to economic development of the country. Indeed a viable solution to the priority issues will remain largely unachievable without an educated and skilled workforce; and this cannot be achieved simply by 100 percent primary enrolment.
The promises that the manifesto makes are actually redundant. Education, science and technology are already receiving the highest budgetary allocation for several years, and education in the public institutes of higher learning such as Dhaka University is already virtually free.
Indeed, the government can save money by making it free and simultaneously dismantling the administration set up to collect the ludicrously minuscule fees from the students.
AL has also not promised to free up the centres of higher learning from the clutches of partisan politics as has been demanded by various sections of the conscious populace for a long time. The long term damage that politicisation has done to our students and society is now self evident.
Prices
One of the populist slogans that the AL has repeatedly succumbed to is 'lowering commodity prices'. The AL has occupied the highest administrative office twice. Its past experience should have suggested that the government of a poor country can do precious little when the prices of imported essential commodities rise in the international market.
Bangladesh imports large quantities of many essential commodities such as wheat, edible oil, onion, pulses, fuel oil and even our principle crop, rice.
The government does not have any mechanism to hold down prices if import costs rise except by extensively subsidising these products. This is not a feasible option with limited budgetary resources.
Fortunately for Bangladesh, essential prices have of late nose-dived in the international market. With a time lag, domestic prices will also come down and remain low until the next bout of international price hike, which is not expected anytime soon.
In other words the next government will not be tested in the market place at least for the time being. AL was lucky last time when international prices of essentials were historically at their lowest level; the incoming government could also get lucky.
Self sufficiency in food production is not a guarantee against food price hikes. Incidentally, the country imported only marginally higher amounts of cereals during the last four-party government as it did during the previous AL coalition government.
Power
Shortages of power have assumed a crisis proportion, and obviously the past administrations have failed to address this critical issue. The AL has promised to raise power generation to 7000 MW by the end of the next term if elected.
This massive increase in power will require equally massive increases in gas output and/or coal production. Indeed the lack of these primary inputs is actually preventing the full utilisation of the current generation capacity.
There is not much indication in the manifesto how power security is going to be achieved, indeed the short para on this point seems to indicate that the authors of the manifesto are unaware of the seriousness of the problem.
Many a people will be disappointed, for example, that the AL has not given a leading role to BAPEX for exploration to reduce foreign monopoly.
The AL has also skirted the thorny issue of coal mining that had brought such grief for the last BNP government. All that AL has promised is the formulation of 'a new coal policy' and 'economic use' of coal. There is no painless way to resolve the coal issue and AL will have to confront the issue head-on if elected.
'Pervasive problems'
The inclusion of corruption and governance as priority issues raises concern about the feasibility of implementation of the AL manifesto. Notwithstanding the common perception, these are very old, deep-seated, and pervasive problems that cannot be removed in a short time.
The present government, with little accountability and unlimited power, has made a mess of corruption-fighting. An accountable democratic government will not find this task any easier.
Corruption is a great equaliser—it transcends parties, positions and wealth. It is very difficult to believe that a popularly elected future AL government will be able to deal even-handedly with its own party leaders (or followers for that matter) who have tainted records in this regard.
Consequently the fight against corruption if initiated at all will be essentially against non-party people, and soon enough it will be perceived as such.
This will not only do a disservice to the purpose of corruption control, but may end up as a very controversial issue that will divide the nation, and perhaps glorify some of the corrupt.
I have no doubt that the people who wrote the manifesto are among the most informed and loyal subjects of the AL. And yet they did not hesitate to let their netri present a manifesto that falsifies the rather well-known fact that it was during her rule that Bangladesh was catapulted to the dubious distinction of being the most corrupt country in the world by TI, which her successor very successfully upheld for several more years.
How much can the netri really rely on her followers for corruption control when the chips are down?
There are few short-term solutions to corruption and governance problems. Much finesse and care will be needed to keep them manageable. The ultimate solution lies in economic growth and the development of appropriate institutions.
It is not clear how the banning of religion-based politics improves governance. Few countries in the world ban religion-based politics. Such a ban only serves to ignite religious passion and thereby strengthens fundamentalism.
Presently, the religious groups are a small minority. A ban could swell the ranks of fundamentalists very quickly. AL will have invited to our body politic in full force the trend that it purports to oppose.
Polls and beyond
Most of the economic measures presented in the manifesto will find broad support. There are several reports, the latest being the FBCCI report, which float similar and more up-to-date ideas. The AL manifesto authors seem to have missed the most important development on our export front during the last two decades, which is the emergence of a competitive ship-building industry without any government support. It should now get due attention.
From an academic economist's point of view, the real weakness of the manifesto is that it is not costed. It does not give any indication where the resources needed to implement the promises will come from. If AL is not thinking of relying on the begging bowl, then a very hefty increase in taxes must be on the card. Bangladesh is among the least taxed country in the world and a widening of the tax net is desirable. Heroic is the government that achieves this end and everyone should wish it good luck.
The results of the election are never certain. The manifesto should have assured the voters that AL will respect their freely expressed verdict regardless of the outcome.
Since there is a possibility that the AL-led 'Grand Alliance' could fail to get a majority, the manifesto would have been immensely enriched if it had also dealt with this eventuality. The opposition plays a very important role in a vibrant democracy and the manifesto could have contained a section on how the party would work in the opposition bench to strengthen the parliamentary processes. Many of its promises can be realised also from the opposition bench.
None of the above should be construed as a discouragement of the dreams or aims of the manifesto. But difficulties do lie ahead. Despite or in spite of these, no one should be stopped from dreaming or aiming high, since that is the essential pre-requisite of achieving great things.
Follow the dream and good luck!
Professor MA Taslim is CEO of Bangladesh Foreign Trade Institute and Co-Chair of the Macro-economics Working Group of Bangladesh Business Forum
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