The Dream Result: Can AL handle it?
Wed, Dec 31st, 2008 5:00 pm BdST
MA Taslim
Dhaka, Dec 31 (bdnews24.com)—The people of Bangladesh have given their verdict; they have handed down the AL-led Mahajote an unprecedented electoral victory. No allegation of irregularities or violence can downplay the immensity of the electoral backlash against BNP and its allies. The voters have turned a full 180 degrees, and this time mercilessly punished the four-party combine.
That the voters could turn away from the latter was not much in doubt, but the magnitude of the four-party debacle must have surprised even the most avid AL supporter. The reasons for such a determined turnaround of voters will remain a fertile topic of research by political analysts for a long time. However, what is important is that both the victorious and vanquished alliances undertake thorough studies of this election outcome in order to learn more about the psychology of voters. The practice of taking them for granted or treating them with contempt once elected should be a thing of the past.
Many people think that the high prices of essentials during the four-party rule are the principal reason for this colossal defeat. The continual increase in the prices of essential goods including cereals under the jote (alliance) could not have but hurt its electoral prospects. However, it was probably not a major cause of the public ire against the four-party coalition. If this were so it would be difficult to explain why there was a large backlash in 2001 against the AL-led coalition even though the prices were very stable.
Although it was not well understood in 2002-03 when the prices began rising, by now most people seem to understand the link between the domestic and international prices in an open economy notwithstanding the allegation of the evil machinations of the mythical syndicates. The four-party alliance was plain unlucky to be in the government at the wrong time.
What irked the ordinary people is not the price hike per se, but the perceived indifference or apathy of the government in the face of their hardship. It was heartless of a minister/leader to tell the suffering people that not much could be done about their misfortune as the source of the problem lay in the international market; all they needed was an assurance that their elected representatives were doing everything possible to alleviate their sufferings. If the government did anything at all, it certainly was not evident to the public.
Perhaps the greatest failure of the BNP-led alliance was its failure to govern. The voters expect the government to provide a transparent framework of governance within which everyone operates. The absence of a recognisable framework of governance inevitably led to arbitrariness in decision-making and victimisation. This was further compounded by the rise of Hawa Bhavan which was widely perceived to be an alternate centre of power and decision making despite the fact that its inhabitants were neither elected by the people nor held any government positions. The enormous harm that it did to BNP and to the cause of good governance is now apparent.
The election result places a heavy burden on the AL. The lavish electoral promises made by the party have helped to raise the level of the popular expectations. These have been further buttressed by the magnitude of the victory. There will be pressures to perform and the AL will have to labour hard to realise at least some of the promises. It will be greatly helped by the current falling trend in international commodity prices which has started bringing down the prices of essential commodities such as cereals and edible and fuel oil. Inflation has already declined very markedly and is likely to fall even more. This will give the incoming government an additional degree of freedom in pursuing its objectives.
No one grudges the right of the party or the alliance forming the government to appoint ministers and certain other high officials according to their interest. However, few people would accept that they have a similar right to appoint people to the positions of teachers, doctors, engineers or bureaucrats in government payroll. The well accepted principle throughout the world is that the ruling government appoints (and promotes) such people on the basis of clearly laid out criteria based on merit, qualifications, seniority and affirmative action.
Also few would agree that the ruling party or the alliance has a right to distribute lucrative government contracts according to its wish or interest. There are well accepted procedures (such as tendering) for the distribution of such contracts.
The incoming government will make a large number of such appointments and distribute many contracts worth hundreds of billions of taka. The less qualified people who cannot gain the position or the contract they desire on merit will no doubt try to attain their objectives by appealing to party loyalty. Jockeying for positions and favours must have commenced in full swing by this time. When the party succumbs to lobbyists for special favours their honeymoon with the voters will start wearing off.
AL, and in particular Sheikh Hasina, have good reasons to be worried about the massive electoral victory of the mahajote. Till now the expressed concern of everyone including hers has been to make the next parliament functional with the opposition playing its due role. The one-sided election has effectively robbed her of that opportunity; it has shrunk the opposition bench to insignificance.
With a stupendous majority that could reach nearly 90 per cent, the mahajote members apparently have little reason or obligations to give space to the opposition; and with just 10 per cent seats the jote members have even less reason to be enthusiastic about participating in the parliamentary deliberations given our culture. The parliament could effectively become dysfunctional even before it has been convened.
With the dizzying electoral heights reached by Sheikh Hasina, the parliament is unlikely to be anything more than a rubber stamp for her and the parliamentary deliberations not much more than netri bandana and favour-seeking by drooling members. The worry is that such a situation could easily develop an authoritarian mould that is impervious to the concerns of the ordinary people. A very determined effort on part of Sheikh Hasina will be required to avoid such an eventuality and move Bangladesh toward peace and prosperity.
AL had found it difficult to accept its resounding defeat at the 2001 election. It will face even greater difficulty to handle the colossal victory it has been handed down at the 2008 election.
Professor MA Taslim is currently the CEO of Bangladesh Foreign Trade Institute on secondment from University of Dhaka.
bdnews24.com/mt/rah/1656hours
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