"An attack on my soldier is an attack on me," so declared a European king in 1648 following conclusion of the Treaty of Westphalia that had brought into vogue the concept of sovereignty after 30 years of bloody wars between various Kings, Vickers and Princes of Europe.
Ever since, sovereignty and soldiering have evolved almost symbiotically and the power of a sovereign nation began to be measured by the power of its armed forces, the quest for economic power running in tandem.
Rebellion of necessity
But, despite soldiering being as old a profession as is prostitution, professional soldiers too rose in rebellion from time to time, more so in this subcontinent. Many of such rebellion became 'rebellion of necessity', including the one against the British in 1857. The rebellion on March 26, 1971, by eight East Bengal Regiment, then stationed in Chittagong, kicked off the first armed resistance against the occupation Pakistani armed forces.
President Zia, then a Major serving in that unit, ventured into a dare-devil mission to kill his commanding officer first before making a declaration for independence at the local radio station on March 27, on behalf of Sheikh Mujib.
Mujib being in captivity, that particular declaration inspired Bengali men and officers of the Pakistan armed forces to wage a war of liberation in which less than three dozens officers died in combat. The military history of the nation thus gained prominence over the political one, although the two remain inseparable.
Rebellion against sovereignty
It therefore surprises none that the unexpected death of nearly 60 senior military officers during the recent BDR mutiny has begun to threaten our hard earned independence in many ways, least of all through a shaken morale of the armed forces' members. In contrast to the 1971 rebellion, the BDR mutiny of February 25-26 was a rebellion against the sovereignty of the nation, although few tears are being shed and only cosmetic and lukewarm attempts are being made to bring to justice the culprits who had planned and executed a horrendous barbarity against a huge swathe of mid and high ranking military officers, built through over three decades of dedication and diligence.
People have also begun to voice concerns as the investigation into the massacre is getting delayed and stymied, on pretexts that more evidence-like audio and video footages of the rebellion-has been recovered. Realistically, these footages will only show the known activities of some rogue soldiers who partook into a rebellion that the government too insists to have been sparked by elements from without, and, the FBI was called in to look into that angle in specific.
That notwithstanding, anyone sincere about getting to the bottom of this diabolic conspiracy against the country's sovereignty must come out of the partisan closet in order to uphold the necessity of preserving the nation's sovereignty at any cost.
Moment of truth
That spirit to get to the truth is needed more now than anytime before. George Orwell once said, "In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." As the nation passes through many deceitful power plays being orchestrated by forces within and without, telling the truth may be the only recourse to save our sovereignty and independence from many more impending catastrophes of the like of the Peelkhana tragedy.
Unfortunately, the disconcerting ambiance has further accentuated due to another major reason: Never before, has the regional and global power play with the nation's fate been more dreadful.
Tell tale signs
Insightful observers say tell tale signs are everywhere that carries bad omens of something ominous being in the offing. Following the warning released on March 16 by Indian Foreign Minister, Pranab Mukharjee, that 'India would not sit idle' if what he said 'attempts to destabilize Sheikh Hasina's government continue' (see OutlookIndia.com, March 16, 2009), another regional and budding super power, China, became equally concerned, for the first time, with the prospect of an abrupt shift in regional balance of power if India do carry out its threats against Bangladesh.
The Chinese reaction was instantly felt when, on March 17, Foreign Secretary Towhid Hossian confirmed that Myanmar had started mobilising its forces along the 200 km Bangladesh border. Myanmar is a regional clientele state of China and much of Myanmar's military hardware comes from Beijing. The news of Myanmar's military preparedness was later acknowledged by Foreign Minister Dipu Moni who tried to down play the gravity of the situation by saying, "I do not like to voice any opinion now. We will firm up our stance after considering the situation."
Meanwhile, Home Secretary Abdus Sobhan Sikder told the media that the Myanmar armed forces had pushed reinforcements of its paramilitary forces across the Naaf River and started construction of infrastructures near the frontier.
Sources say, besides constructing barbed wire fences along the common border, Myanmar forces have been mobilising air power at Sitwe airfield closer to Bangladesh and had dispatched a flotilla of Chinese made naval ships near the vicinity of Bangladesh's territorial water. Analysts interpret that this threat has a twin aim: Claiming deep sea energy blocks and sending a message of the Chinese determination to checkmate the Indo-US threats to intervene in Bangladesh.
Regional reactions
Concerned by such developments, and apparently surprised by what seemed Dhaka's total ignorance about the ramifications of these aggressive military postures of the two nuclear armed big powers (India and China), other regional nations became worried and tried to send coded diplomatic signals to Yangon and Dhaka through carefully phrased cryptic statements.
In Indonesia, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono urged Prime Minster Gen Thein Sein of Myanmar to cooperate with international organizations to resolve the issue of Rohingya boat people fleeing from the sensitive Burma-Bangladesh border area while Singaporean Prime Minister, Lee Hsien Loong, speaking at a dinner in honour of the visiting Myanmar Prime Minister on March 17, urged Myanmar leader to engage in greater international cooperation.
Analysts further say that the Malaysian government had meanwhile decided to send back nearly 70,000 Bangladeshi workers, apparently due to Dhaka's naked subservience to the US-India axis against China.
Enter super powers
Curiously, the following day, March 19, CIA Director Leon Panetta, in his first overseas trip since taking office, flew to Delhi and met with India's home minister to discuss what Indian media said 'intelligence sharing and security matters prevailing in the region.' Panetta's visit followed a visit to Delhi two weeks ago by FBI Director, Robert Mueller, coinciding with Dhaka's declaration to seek FBI cooperation in the BDR mutiny investigation.
That showed the FBI's intrusion into the BDR mutiny investigation did not occur just to strengthen the investigation regime, as was being touted by governments in Dhaka and Washington. Long before the mutiny, the US intelligence services began to act in concert with Indian spy agencies to fend off a twin-threat: encirclement of China and crushing of Islamist militants in Bangladesh, Thailand, Indonesia and Pakistan.
As this Great Game continued in the regional theatre, a US spy ship, USNS Impeccable, engaged aggressively, was chased away by Chinese spy ships in disguise of fishing trawlers in the South China Sea on March 11.
However, the CIA became more alarmed after various think tanks cautioned of an impending danger in Bangladesh which could result in the pro-Western Government's loosing grip on power. For instance, Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, a South Asian expert for the British-based think-tank International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), summarized the Government's position in the aftermath of the BDR mutiny: "The government was caught totally unaware (by the mutiny) and that's a bit worrying." Chaudhury added, "There was no intelligence coming in, no warning signals. I don't think the government is as yet fully in control of the military."
In control or not, the military has since been kept on a roller coaster ride by the government, shuffling and shoving officers from their posts which many of them joined only months ago. The same has occurred in the civil service, police, hospitals, universities and other organs of the state machinery. The entire nation now seems in a state of flux. This seemed to have scared the Western and Indian backers of the government too.
"Beijing is fully aware of what is going with Bangladesh", said one Dhaka-based Sinologist, insisting anonymity. Earlier, the influential China Post predicted in its March 2 issue that 'seething anger in Bangladesh's army over a deadly mutiny by border guards could boil over into bloody revenge." The Post claimed, "The revolt has highlighted the fragility of the country's political leadership, which was taken completely by surprise when the violence broke out in the heart of Dhaka."
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